Analyzing the biggest Bears questions — and predicting their 2024 record

At the end of a long preseason, and with their eyes on the Sept. 8 opener, the Sun-Times’ Patrick Finley, Jason Lieser and Mark Potash break down the Bears’ biggest questions and predict their record this year:

Based on Caleb Williams’ training camp, what do you expect from him this season?

FINLEY: To be big enough for the moment, both on and off the field. That’d be a welcome change. Among quarterbacks to run at least 30 plays with their team losing with four minutes or less to play, Justin Fields finished last in passer rating in 2023 (22.1) and 2022 (37.1). If Williams can be even league-average, it will translate to wins for a team that lost six times by one score last year.

LIESER: Easily their best passing performance since Jay Cutler. It’s evident already, just from practices and preseason games, that Williams is more proficient at reading defenses, moving quickly through his progressions, sensing pressure in the pocket and throwing accurately, on-time and with touch than Fields or Mitch Trubisky. There’s no question he still needs development, but he’s better in every one of those areas than Fields and Trubisky were in Year 3.

POTASH: Better than the best the Bears ever saw from either Trubisky (95.4 passer rating, 230.2 passing yards per game in 2018) or Fields (247.6 total yards per game in 2023). Williams figures to struggle at times as a rookie quarterback in a first-year offense, but his peaks should be pretty high.

What does Matt Eberflus need to show you?

FINLEY: Wins. General manager Ryan Poles praised his “resilience” and “ability to adapt and adjust” the past two years. Had he lost just one more game, though, Eberflus would have the worst career winning percentage in Bears history. Good vibes are one thing. Now that Eberflus has an above-average roster for the first time, he has to win with it.

LIESER: Competent management. He’s a savvy defensive play-caller, but the head-coaching job requires way more than that. Eberflus must manage the staff, manage difficult in-game decisions that only the head coach can make and manage the Bears’ public image. All of those were problematic last season.

POTASH: That he can manage the games as well as he can manage the defense and the team. Eberflus’ seat is unlikely to become as hot as some think this season. But an inability to win a majority of the Bears’ one-score games is one way to turn up the heat.

What is the Bears’ biggest strength?

FINLEY: The place where “receivers go to die,” per Muhsin Muhammad, boasts what could become the best trio in the NFL — if Keenan Allen stays healthy, Rome Odunze adjusts quickly to the NFL and DJ Moore repeats last year’s showing.

LIESER: Their secondary. They’ve gone from having Jaylon Johnson and a collection of practice-squad-level cornerbacks to having three quality starters and three backups who could be starting on other teams. At safety, Jaquan Brisker is on the rise and Kevin Byard is a two-time All-Pro.

POTASH: Their defensive balance. The Bears have playmakers at all three levels in Montez Sweat, Tremaine Edmunds, Johnson and versatility at several positions. It gives Eberflus and coordinator Eric Washington more room to be creative to address injuries and weaknesses.

What is your biggest concern about Ryan Poles’ roster?

FINLEY: The same as it was after free agency and the draft and training camp report day: an edge rusher to put opposite Sweat on passing downs. Poles tried to trade for four-time Pro Bowl player Matthew Judon. When that failed, he settled for Darrell Taylor, who’s started a mere 27% of his games.

LIESER: He needs to be right about the offensive line. The Bears have a lot riding on left tackle Braxton Jones and right guard Nate Davis. It’s good to have depth, and they do, but it’s more important that the starting five are sturdy. The O-line is probably near the middle of the NFL on paper, and whether it overachieves or underachieves will have a huge effect on Williams.

POTASH: Defensive line depth. The acquisitions of Taylor and defensive tackle Chris Williams last week tells the tale. The Bears are thin at edge rusher and tackle and can be undone by a key injury to Sweat, Andrew Billings or Gervon Dexter. That’s why the development of Dexter, Zacch Pickens and edge rusher Austin Booker is a big key. The Bears need depth.

Who will be the Bears’ best player?

FINLEY: Moore, whom Pro Football Focus ranked ninth in receiving last year — one spot ahead of new teammate Allen. No one had fewer drops. Moore is a workhorse and a low-drama teammate. He embodies the culture the Bears promote.

LIESER: Sweat. Williams is their most important player, Allen is their most accomplished player and Moore was their best player last season, but Sweat is poised to dominate. There’s no sense whatsoever that he got complacent after signing a landmark $98 million contract extension — just the opposite, in fact.

POTASH: Johnson is one of those guys who can find disrespect anywhere to fuel him. Even after making second-team All-Pro and earning a four-year, $76 million contract in the offseason, he remains a man on a mission. And he’s in the best defense of his NFL career.

Which newcomer other than Williams will make the biggest impact?

FINLEY: Shane Waldron walks into Halas Hall with more NFL offensive coordinator experience than anyone the Bears have hired since Mike Martz in 2010. His ability to develop Williams and shape the offense around him makes Waldron one of the most important people inside Halas Hall.

LIESER: Odunze. He gets overshadowed by Williams, Moore and Allen, but his talent and comprehension is off the charts. He could be a Pro Bowl-level wide receiver as a rookie.

POTASH: Byard looks like he’s in the right place at the right time after being in tough spots with the struggling Titans and disappointing Eagles last season. Byard is 31, but was a first-team All-Pro in 2021 (when the Titans were sixth in scoring defense) and seems to still have a knack for big plays. And this is the best defense he’s played in since his last All-Pro season.

What will the Bears’ record and NFC North finish be this season?

FINLEY: 9-8, third in the best division in football. Provided that Williams gets better as the season goes on, 2024 will constitute a major leap forward for the franchise. And remember: 9-8 got two teams into the NFC playoffs last year.

LIESER: 11-6, second in the division. This roster is a 10-win team, minimum, so if the Bears fall short of that, Eberflus is in trouble. Also, a mandate for this season: Split or better against the Lions and Packers and sweep the Vikings.

POTASH: 10-7, tied for second with the Packers in the NFC North, behind the 11-6 Lions. The early schedule gives the Bears a chance to stay afloat as Williams and the offense get acclimated. The post-bye schedule will reveal just where this thing is headed under Williams, Waldron and Eberflus.