Saquon Barkley isn't the MVP favorite ... yet. He can change that real soon.
After rushing for a career-high and Philadelphia Eagles record 255 yards Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams, and setting an Eagles record for yards from scrimmage with 302, Saquon Barkley walked off the field at SoFi Stadium to chants of MVP.
It wasn’t simply fans caught up in the moment. He’s firmly in the conversation now.
Barkley’s odds to win the award are +650 after his record performance, moving him to third favorite behind Josh Allen (+150) and Lamar Jackson (+220). It’s a monster jump from +5000 odds entering Week 12.
The only thing left now is for him to keep it up.
MVP chants for Saquon, whose monster season continues. pic.twitter.com/jfb7qCmOKE
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) November 25, 2024
Saquon Barkley running off the field to MVP chants pic.twitter.com/vN1OT7X8P0
— Tyler Dragon (@TheTylerDragon) November 25, 2024
That’s easier said than done. Barkley is averaging 149.9 yards from scrimmage per game, which puts him on pace for 2,548 yards for the season. That would break Chris Johnson’s NFL single-season record of 2,509 by several yards and almost guarantee Barkley wins the first running back MVP since 2012 based on how his performances correlate to wins for the 9-2 Eagles.
However, maintaining that pace doesn’t seem likely. Barkley was averaging 134.7 yards before Sunday, which still translates to a big year but wouldn’t even crack the top 10 all-time. If he regresses to that range, Barkley wouldn’t be out the conversation but his best path to MVP would hinge on him still outplaying the quarterback contenders while continuing to lead the Eagles to wins.
He’ll have a chance to do that head-up this week when the Eagles visit Jackson and the Ravens.
Jackson’s lead on Barkley could either grow or shrink Monday night depending how he performs in a big game against the Chargers. But regardless of where Jackson’s odds stand ahead of Baltimore’s meeting with the Eagles, the likely MVP leader after Week 13 will be the player on the winning side.
It won’t be easy for either. Philadelphia’s defense has been among the best in the entire NFL. Baltimore’s run defense is equally stout and capable of giving Barkley a challenge — the Ravens are 2.5-point favorites too. If Barkley can help the Eagles pull off the upset, he jumps into the driver seat. If not, the award is Jackson’s to lose. Considering it’s even that close, Barkley holds the best betting value today. By Sunday, that value could be gone.