Real-time data finds consumers feeling fragile

Don’t panic, but the holiday shopping season officially starts just three days from now. While we’re busy making lists, checking them … at least once … and hunting for Black Friday bargains, retail analysts, investors and consultants will be busy interpreting data and trying to understand why consumers will be doing the things they’ll be doing — and how that will affect retailers.

More and more, those analysts are looking at real-time data. Detailed info on credit card swipes and mobile app clicks, basically anything that might give a glimmer of insight into why consumers do the things they do.

And that data is providing new insights into how we’re all feeling about this year’s holiday season.

This whole industry of different data types is older than you might think. Daryl Smith, head of research at Neudata, said it all started with analyzing the details of where people were using credit cards and what they were buying.

“And that is really something that’s been used for, what, since the early 2000s by hedge funds and asset managers,” he said.

Now the data includes “footfalls” — like where you’re physically shopping — satellite images of store parking lots, delivery app orders and social media clicks. The list goes on.

“It’s kind of another plane of information that an investor might be accessing,” he said.

There are two main selling points here: One is how specific the data can be. Unlike traditional datasets like quarterly earnings and company filings, “they get much faster and localized and, you know, sectoral,” said Matías Vernengo, an economics professor at Bucknell University.

In addition to specificity, Vernengo said, the data provides insights in real time. Much faster than, say, the consumer confidence index. 

“When people ask me about, ‘Oh, but consumer confidence is low,’ I said, ‘Yeah, well, who cares?’ I mean, it’s really, it’s lagging data,” he said.

As for this holiday season, Jonathan Chin said he’s already seeing signs of price pressure. He is co-founder of a data company called Facteus that analyzes credit card use.

“Things are just expensive, and people’s wallets are a lot tighter. And I’m seeing some of that in the data,” he said.

He said people are spending more on each transaction, but the total amount they’re spending is flat. Also, it’s a big year for Chinese companies selling affordable products: Temu, Shein and TikTok’s shop have all seen spikes in sales this year.