Israel and Hezbollah seem headed for a ceasefire. Here’s what we know.

A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is set to take effect in Lebanon at 4 am local time Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced today.

The temporary pause in hostilities, negotiated by the US and France, could lead to a permanent ceasefire in Lebanon. Israel invaded its northern neighbor in late September to fight Hezbollah, the Shia militant group based in Lebanon’s south. Hezbollah is an ally of Hamas, Israel’s foe in Gaza, and launched attacks against Israel in retaliation for Israel’s war in Gaza (which itself began in retaliation for the October 7, 2023, incursion into Israel by Hamas, in which the group killed roughly 1,200 Israelis and captured more than 200 others).

The announcement comes amid intensive bombing in the Lebanese capital Beirut, including in heavily populated areas. And it comes more than a year into Israel’s war in Gaza, which has killed more than 44,000 Palestinians and rendered much of the territory uninhabitable. 

Netanyahu’s cabinet accepted the deal on Tuesday; Lebanese lawmakers are set to discuss the agreement on Wednesday morning. Hezbollah leadership, which was not party to the negotiations, indicated last week that the group would accept a ceasefire agreement if Israel stopped striking Lebanon and respected the country’s sovereignty (Lebanon’s speaker of Parliament served as the go-between for the Lebanese caretaker government and the militant group.)

Here is what you need to know:

Where does the conflict stand now?

Tuesday’s ceasefire comes after at least one false start, when the US and France attempted to mediate a short ceasefire at the end of September. 

Since then, Hezbollah has been severely diminished. A September attack using explosives hidden in pagers and other electronic devices killed large numbers of Hezbollah fighters as well as Lebanese civilians; though Israel has not claimed responsibility for that attack, it is widely believed to be responsible. Israel also killed senior Hezbollah leadership, including longtime head Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, in bombings near Beirut. 

Tuesday represented a crescendo in Israel’s Lebanese offensive; heavy bombing rocked densely populated parts of Beirut and 24 people were killed across the country, according to Lebanese authorities.  

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has killed more than 3,500 Lebanese so far and around 75 Israeli civilians. (Lebanese death tolls, taken from the country’s Health Ministry, combine civilian and military deaths.) About 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from the Israel/Lebanon border region since October 8, 2023. That’s when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel in support of Hamas, after the militant group attacked Israel.

What’s in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal?

The deal is for a 60-day cessation of hostilities, though Biden suggested that the agreement lays the groundwork for a permanent ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.

The negotiation, brokered by the US and France, stipulates that Israel and Hezbollah are not to attack each other and that Israeli troops are to gradually withdraw across the Blue Line — the internationally recognized border between Israel and Lebanon — over the two-month period. Hezbollah is to move its forces above Lebanon’s Litani river. 

Despite the promising development, any peace appears delicate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in a televised speech Tuesday, “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and attempts to rearm, we will strike. If they attempt to rebuild infrastructure along the border, dig a tunnel, launch rockets, or bring in trucks loaded with missiles, we will strike.”

A spokesperson for Hezbollah reportedly said that the group will wait to “see if there is a match between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials” before committing to the ceasefire. The group also suggested it would respond to any attack by Israel. 

Thousands of Lebanese forces and UN peacekeeping troops will surge to southern Lebanon as part of the agreement. A monitoring body headed by the US will be responsible for ensuring all parties’ adherence to the agreement.

Biden assured reporters in his Tuesday briefing that no US troops will be committed to Lebanon, though a senior administration official later clarified in a press briefing that, “If we need folks on the ground, they will be based, I assume, in the embassy. The president was clear that no troops would be deployed to the south, and we are not going to be engaging in, don’t expect anybody to engage in, any kind of combat operations of any kind. This is all in security assistance.”

What’s next for the deal?

Ideally, a framework for a lasting peace will be the next step for Israel and Lebanon. 

However, an additional hurdle remains before the ceasefire is implemented. As the agreement now stands, Israel has the right to strike back should Hezbollah violate its end of the bargain. As Netanyahu explained in his speech, there seems to be a broad range of actions that would constitute a violation. He also said Israeli drones would monitor Lebanese territory, which Lebanese officials maintain they did not agree to. Lebanese officials will meet to discuss the ceasefire deal Wednesday morning.

In his remarks, Biden mentioned that a renewed push for a Gaza ceasefire was on the table in the waning days of his presidency. Hezbollah had previously tied its ceasefire agreement to a ceasefire in Gaza (Hezbollah and Hamas are both aligned with Iran and its affiliate groups.) Advancing those stalled peace talks would be a logical next step.

Joshua Keating contributed reporting for this story.