Sidney Crosby’s recent drop in goals is surprising, but not yet concerning

There are encouraging numbers that suggest he could and perhaps even should bounce back.

The Penguins are definitely playing some better hockey over the past month (Tuesday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche being a recent exception), which has been made even more impressive by the fact Sidney Crosby has not been driving most of the offense.

At least not in the form of him actually scoring the goals. He is still generating assists at a Crosby-like rate. He is just not the one actually scoring the goals.

Crosby has not scored a goal in seven consecutive games and going back to early November has just two goals in his past 16 games.

It certainly has not been for a lack of effort or a lack of chances.

He has put 48 shots on goal during that stretch, attempted 80 total shots, has 44 individual scoring chances, 23 individual high-danger scoring chances and nearly six individual expected goals.

All of those numbers are in the top-two or-three among Penguins players (and it is not surprising that the other players at the top with him are his linemates, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell).

The puck’s just not going in the net for him.

Given Crosby’s age this sort of goal-scoring drought might be a cause for concern, because at some point his production is going to permanently slow down just based on normal aging curves and decline. It is inevitable. It happens to everybody, even if Crosby has surpassed expectations throughout his mid-30s.

But I am not entirely convinced this is a sign of that for Crosby right now for two main reasons.

The first is that goal-scorers always run hot-and-cold over the course of an 82-game season. Players that score 40 goals do not do so by scoring a goal every other game on a consistent basis. They score two in one game, five in seven games, and then go six games without one at all. That has always been the case for players, including the elites. So this is nothing out of the ordinary for players like Crosby. While he has not had many stretches like this in his career, he has certainly had his share of them.

Including just last season when he went 16 games with only two goals from late February to late March.

He still finished the season with 42 goals even with that stretch late in the season.

He is also still generating chances at a legitimate first-line rate. Among forwards over their past 16 games he remains firmly among the top-30 in shots on goal, individual high-danger chances and expected goals. It’s not quite the level we are used to seeing from Crosby, but ... he’s also 37.... and it’s still good enough to be productive.

In terms of his per 60 minute rates, a lot of his shot and chance numbers are at least somewhat in line with earlier seasons in his career.

I have to assume — and want to assume — that if he keeps generating chances and shots that eventually they will start going in the net.

Even in this most recent slump he is still up over three shots on goal per game but is only scoring on just 4.1 percent of them. Prior to this stretch he had six goals on 41 shots on goal to open the season, which is right in line with the shooting percentages he has been at in recent years and throughout his career (around 14-15 percent).

Just based on some simple back of the envelope math, if he maintained that three shot average for the remainder of the season and saw a bounce back in his percentages he could still be looking at another 22-25 goals over the remainder of the season. That would get him up over the 30-goal mark again, and perhaps even still have a chance to push 40 goals if things really went right for him.

Yes, there is a lot of projection here and a lot of assumption that his shooting luck will change, but I have seen nothing to suggest that can not or will not happen. The biggest part of scoring goals is putting yourself in a position to get shots and get chances. Crosby is still, for the most part, doing that.

Maybe not at the level he did at his peak. But it is still there. His ability to finish did not suddenly evaporate and abandon him.

[Data In This Post Via Hockey-Reference And Natural Stat Trick]