How LeBron James’ looming retirement impacts the Lakers’ trade-deadline approach

LeBron James’ retirement is very close, which should affect how the Lakers approach the Feb. 6 trade deadline.

After securing his third triple-double in a row earlier this season against the Memphis Grizzlies, LeBron James hinted that his retirement may not be far away.

“I’m not going to play that much longer, to be completely honest,” he told reporters. “I don’t know how many years that is. If it’s one year or two years, whatever the case may be. I said the other night, I’m not playing until the wheels fall off. I’m not gonna be that guy.

“I’m not gonna be the guy who’s disrespecting the game because I just wanted to be out on the floor. That won’t be me.”

The soon-to-be 40-year-old helped the Lakers off to a fast start this season. Even with the team regressing to the mean in the weeks after that, with James’ retirement looming, the Lakers may be tempted to make an all-in push at the trade deadline in the hopes of getting him a fifth NBA championship before he hangs it up for good.

That would be an admirable move for an organization that has been one foot in, one foot out for the past few years. However, the Lakers must also consider their post-LeBron outlook as they consider potential deals ahead of the deadline.

If James declines his $52.6 million player option for the 2025-26 season and retires this coming offseason, it wouldn’t have a huge financial bearing on the Lakers. They’d have nearly $26 million in cap space, which is hardly enough to replace a player of James’ caliber, much less to round out the rest of their roster as well. James is undoubtedly aware of that, so he figures to return in 2025-26 to play out the remaining year on his contract.

Once James’ deal comes off the Lakers’ books in 2026, though, the world is their oyster. Even if (when) they pick up their team option on Dalton Knecht, they could have upward of $55 million in cap space if they don’t sign Austin Reaves to an extension beforehand. Their roster would be relatively barren outside of Davis, Reaves, Knecht, Jarred Vanderbilt and Max Christie, but they’d have plenty of spending power to fix that.

The Lakers must remain mindful of that context heading into the trade deadline. If James plans to retire by 2026, they effectively have a one- or two-year window with him. After that, they’ll need to pivot and become a Davis-centric team instead.

Based on current projections, the Lakers couldn’t quite sign a free agent to a 35% max contract during the 2026 offseason, but they would be close. They’re only one Vanderbilt or Christie salary dump away, in fact.

If they’re eyeing a run at a star free agent that summer — say, Trae Young or De’Aaron Fox? — they can’t afford to compromise their long-term financial flexibility.

The Lakers, thus, may prefer to target players on shorter-term contracts at this year’s trade deadline. It’s OK if their deals bleed over into 2025-26, but anything beyond that could cut into their post-LeBron spending power. That might be worthwhile if said player pushes them over the edge this season — or if they can flip them without taking salary back later on — but that’s the balance they’ll have to juggle.

That could provide hints about whom the Lakers intend to pursue at the deadline.

Washington Wizards center Jonas Valanciunas, who has popped up in the rumor mill as a possible Lakers target, signed a three-year, $30.3 million contract this past offseason. However, the third year of that deal (the 2026-27 season) is fully non-guaranteed, so the Lakers could waive him that offseason without being stuck with a dead cap hit.

Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times recently mentioned Portland Trail Blazers center Robert Williams as another possible Lakers target. Williams has two years left on his contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026, so he wouldn’t cut into the Lakers’ post-LeBron flexibility, either.

However, Blazers forward Jerami Grant — whom some Lakers fans have discussed as a possibility and has been a constant in the rumor mill in recent years — still has three guaranteed years remaining on his contract. He’d wipe out most of the Lakers’ cap space in 2026.

That has to factor into the Lakers’ calculus as they mull possible trades. Not only do they have to weigh the acquisition cost, but they also need to consider how those players could fit into their post-LeBron plans. Someone like Grant might be less attractive than a player on a shorter contract because he would compromise their long-term flexibility.

Even with Dec. 15 effectively upon us, there’s still time before the trade market begins to heat up. The Lakers will continue to suss out their biggest needs over the next few weeks before exploring deals.

But they should balance their current outlook with James and their future beyond him once they begin making offers.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.