How will a Trump presidency impact lumber markets?

Conversation was dominated by President-elect Donald Trump’s social media announcement of blanket 25% tariffs on all products shipped into the US from Canada and Mexico effective January 20.

While the announcement garnered much attention, few traders considered the threat credible, and the industry as a whole took a wait-and-see approach to the news.

In Western S-P-F, upward price momentum paused as the US holiday approached. Buyers had an easier time covering immediate needs, and declined to extend inventories, especially in spots where winter weather had settled in. Lumber futures was little changed in early trading.

Buyers across the South lacked urgency amid abundant supplies of most items. Downward price pressure was unabated.

Many veteran traders noted that the price spread between Southern Pine and Western S-P-F was the widest they had seen in their careers and expressed surprise that species substitution was not more prevalent.

In Coast markets, upward price momentum and tight supplies kept prices trending higher in uneventful trading. Sales tapered as the US Thanksgiving holiday approached. Green Fir prices led the way, often due to mills drying more of their production.

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