UFC Tampa predictions
What better way to shake off the winter season doldrums than with a visit to sunny Florida?
That’s how the UFC is wrapping its calendar year in 2024, with Miami’s own Colby Covington taking on Joaquin Buckley in Saturday’s UFC Tampa main event. This one kind of came out of nowhere after Belal Muhammad had to withdraw from UFC 310, setting off a chain of events that saw Buckley’s originally scheduled opponent Ian Machado Garry moved to a pay-per-view spot opposite Shavkat Rakhmonov, and Covington sliding in on short notice to replace Garry.
It was a sly move by “Chaos,” who against all odds could find himself in the conversation for a fourth (!) crack at the undisputed welterweight title if he impresses against Buckley. When we last saw Covington, he was losing a listless decision to rival Leon Edwards that he has since blamed on a bad foot/altitude sickness/a dog eating his homework and then he disappeared for 12 months. But the crafty veteran has chosen the right moment to reemerge and not just because of a favorable political landscape.
This should be Buckley’s time to shine, with the former middleweight having won five straight fights dropping to 170 pounds. He’s done a lot to rehabilitate his image in 2024 after some bizarre callouts and beefs the year prior, and he can make it a 4-0 campaign with an impressive performance against Covington. But you know Covington is just waiting to trip Buckley up at the finish line.
In other notable main card action, featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo face off in the co-main event, and Manel Kape takes on Bruno “Blindado” Silva in a fight that could determine the next challenger for flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja.
What: UFC Tampa
Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla.
When: Saturday, Dec. 14. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley (10)
I hate to lend too much credence to excuses, especially when they’re coming from someone like Colby Covington, someone willing to say literally anything to stay relevant, but I buy that his foot was messed up in the Leon Edwards fight. Don’t get me wrong, I think Edwards dings him up for five rounds anyway, but Covington looked extra bad that night as opposed to just normal bad.
Why do I bring this up? Because I still think he has enough in the tank to win fights against certain ranked opponents and Joaquin Buckley might be one of them. With respect to the work Buckley has done to establish himself as a legitimate title contender, he’s yet to face a stylistic matchup like Covington. Buckley has solid offensive wrestling, it’s on the defensive side I have questions. Can he keep Covington off of him for five rounds?
Buckley isn’t the tactician that Edwards is and as good as he’s looked at 170 pounds, he’s not as difficult a puzzle to solve either. You can beat Buckley with pressure, which just so happens to be Covington’s specialty. And if Covington gets him to the ground, Buckley’s flashy moves will look a lot less explosive in the championship rounds.
As someone who has touted Buckley as a potential title challenger, even during his rougher stretches at middleweight, it might seem odd that I’m picking him to fall short here, but I think this is a case of savvy fight selection by Covington. Run this back again and maybe Buckley hammers Covington, but I’ve got this weird feeling the circumstances are just right for Covington to grind out an upset.
Pick: Covington
Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo
Maybe I’m leaning too much towards the older guys, but I like Cub Swanson on Saturday night, too.
Like with Covington’s case, this looks like a good matchup on paper for the WEC original. Billy Quarantillo is a stiff test for anyone at 145 pounds and he’ll have a lot of support from his fellow Floridians, but this is going to come down to the striking and that’s where Swanson still has an advantage over plenty of featherweights. There’s no shame in getting boxed up by Swanson, who can stand and strike with the best of them even after recently celebrating his 41st birthday.
If Quarantillo takes this to the ground, more power to him, but he’ll likely want to put on an entertaining show for the Tampa crowd and that means going blow-for-blow with “Killer Cub.” Swanson is no stranger to Fight of the Night awards and it’s safe to say he and Quarantillo will contend for another one on Saturday, with Swanson also taking home his winner’s check.
Pick: Swanson
Manel Kape (11) vs. Bruno Silva
I don’t get the whole Manel Kape thing.
What’s the appeal here? He talks a big game, sure. He has some lovely knockouts on his résumé, but he’s also had his fair share of stinkers. He consistently comes up short against high-level competition (Kai Asakura excluded, and that was five years ago!). At best, he’s flyweight Michael Page and that might be an insult to “Venom.”
OK, that was harsh, especially considering Kape’s slick striking style not only makes him the favorite against Bruno Silva, it also makes him an intriguing matchup for Pantoja (though everyone on paper looks like they have a chance against Pantoja, one of the reasons he’s such a compelling champion). Is this the night where Kape finally delivers?
Nah. People have been sleeping on Silva for a while, even as he’s racked up four straight finishes and four straight Performance of the Night bonuses. I hear all the time that people are looking for flyweights with consistent stopping power and there’s one that’s been right in front of us the whole time. I’m as befuddled by the disrespect for Silva as I am for the hype for Kape.
I’m doubling down here and could very well eat my words, but my gut tells me Silva is the real contender at flyweight and he submits Kape in the second or third round.
Pick: Silva
Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby
Now this is proper matchmaking for Vitor Petrino. I understand why the Anthony Smith fight happened and, frankly, Petrino just pooped the bed in what should have been a rank-up moment for him, but if we’re still gauging where he’s at as a potential contender at 205 pounds and looking to book him in fun fights, Dustin Jacoby is the right choice.
It hurts me to say that Jacoby’s spoiler days might be behind him. Jacoby’s MMA and kickboxing experience has been a legitimate asset for him in his second run with the UFC, to the point that even in fights he loses you get the sense that his opponent has been truly tested. His kickboxing is some of the best in all of MMA and you can envision a scenario where Petrino just cannot figure him out and ends up on the wrong end of a decision.
Petrino has such an athleticism advantage—and yes, I said the same thing about the Smith fight—he can’t let Jacoby set the pace or get the better of any in-close exchanges. I’m a believer in Petrino as a player in this division, so if he falls short here, I’m going to have serious questions about his future.
Pick: Petrino
Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos
What a fascinating striking duel we have here.
If you want an example of there being no easy fights at bantamweight, we have a pair of fighters in Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos that are unranked, but could give just about anyone in the top 15 a run for their money. Yanez has shown time and time again that he’s an elite boxer, while Marcos has impressed with a flawless start to his 17-fight career. It’s a bloodbath advancing in this division, man.
I like Yanez if only because I expect him to be able to up the volume if the fight calls for it, though Marcos’ distance control and timing are outstanding. At the same time, if Marcos waits too long for the right moment, it will allow Yanez to establish a rhythm and when Yanez is locked in, he’s incredibly effective (and fun to watch!).
As appealing as it is to imagine Marcos keeping his unbeaten record and becoming a dark horse contender in 2025, I don’t see him bumping past Yanez in the contender line just yet. Yanez wins a hard-fought decision, one Marcos will learn a ton from as he forges ahead with a promising future.
Pick: Yanez
Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos
We’ve got two unknown properties here with Navajo Stirling just 5-0 and fresh off of Contender Series, and Tuco Tokkos having a bit more experience, albeit against some questionable competition. Let’s be real, this is the kind of low-level light heavyweight matchup the UFC books solely for the purposes of opening the main card with a bang.
It should be Stirling getting the big finish here. As green as he is, he moves well and passes the eye test as far as what you expect to see from a fighter looking to establish themselves as a knockout artist. He uses his reach well, isn’t afraid to mix the martial arts, and the one-shot KO potential is there. You’d like to see more activity at times, but his methodical style has served him well so far.
It will be effective against Tokkos, too, who likes to come forward and impose his offense. That’s going to be difficult with the longer Stirling sniping away at him and Tokkos will eventually take a wrong step and end up floored by a power punch.
Pick: Stirling
Preliminaries
Michael Johnson def. Ottman Azaitar
Drakkar Klose def. Joel Alvarez
Sean Woodson def. Fernando Padilla
Miles Johns def. Felipe Lima
Miranda Maverick def. Jamey-Lyn Horth
Davey Grant def. Ramon Taveras