Tigers series preview: We’ve got some pitcher’s duels

Expect a low-scoring series.

The AL Central was supposed to be a weak division, but we are nearly at Memorial Day weekend, and four of the five teams are at .500 or better. The Detroit Tigers have been rebuilding in parallel with the Royals, and have improved to .500 this year, but that puts them in fourth place in the division.

Detroit Tigers (23-23) vs. Kansas City Royals (29-19) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Tigers: 4.20 runs scored/game (18th in MLB), 3.83 runs allowed/game (10th)

Royals: 4.60 runs scored/game (11th), 3.46 runs allowed/game (3rd)

The Tigers have had much better success developing young pitchers than the Royals, but have struggled more on offense. Detroit has dropped 10 of their last 15, but took two out of three from the Diamondbacks on this road trip. They’ve been a good road team overall, going 13-10 away from Comerica Park. They have already won one series against the Royals, taking 2 of 3 from them in late April in Detroit.

Tigers hitters have the ninth-lowest walk rate and the ninth-highest strikeout rate. Outfielder Wenceel Pérez is second among all rookies with at least 100 plate appearances with a 155 wRC+, behind only Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz. Fellow rookie Colt Keith has gotten off to a dreadful start, but may be coming around lately, hitting .357 in his last nine games, including a four-hit performance on Friday. Riley Greene has had a big spike in walk rate and is 13th in baseball among qualified hitters, but is hitting just .189 over his last 13 games.

Javier Báez has been the second-worst qualified hitter in baseball, by wRC+. Former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson continues to be a disappointment, and is one of the worst fielders in baseball, by Outs Above Average. The Tigers have stolen 22 bases and have been caught just 3 times, for an 88 percent success rate.

Reese Olson held the Royals to just one run and three hits in seven innings in a start backing April and has a 2.41 ERA against Kansas City in three starts. He tossed eight shutout innings in his last start and has given up just two runs in 26 innings over his last four games. Olson has the seventh-highest groundball rate among starters at 55.4 percent.

Casey Mize has bounced back well after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. He has Quality Starts in his last two outings, but gave up three runs in five innings against the Royals in April. His fastball velocity is up since his injury, and he has a splitter that opponents are hitting just .205 against with a 34.2 percent whiff rate.

Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans have been the two best pitchers in baseball since August 1 of last year, by fWAR. Skubal has the third-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball and has allowed the second-lowest hard-hit rate. He has given up two runs or less in seven of his nine starts, and lefties are hitting just .147/.216/.147 against him.

Tigers relievers have a 3.10 ERA, fourth-best in baseball, but with the sixth-lowest strikeout rate. Closer Jason Foley has converted 10-of-11 save opportunities this season. Lefties are hitting just .150/.261/.200 off Andrew Chafin. Alex Lange has given up six runs in his last four outings.

The Royals begin a tough stretch where their next 26 games are against teams with a .500 record or better. The Tigers are a beatable team, but feature some tough pitching that should lead to close, low-scoring games. The Royals will need some timely offense, and could really use some of their underachieving bats to wake up.