The building blocks for Rishi Sunak’s General Election announcement were all there – they’d been planning it for weeks
ALL the signs that Rishi Sunak was gearing up to declare a General Election date were there – with the PM quietly planning the scenes for weeks.
Sun Politics Editor Harry Cole and Sun on Sunday Political Editor Kate Ferguson broke down the PM’s shock announcement in a Never Mind the Ballots election special.
At 5pm today, Sunak announced he’ll take on Sir Keir Starmer‘s Labour Party on July 4 for a long-awaited election showdown.
Drowned out by protestors blasting Blairite anthem, D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, the PM declared: “Earlier today, I spoke with His Majesty the King to request the dissolution of Parliament.
“The King has granted this request, and we will have a general election on July 4.”
And the writing was already on the wall months before.
In an emergency Never Mind the Ballots special, our experts told how the writing was always on the wall – despite the PM insisting an election would happen “later in the year”.
Harry said: “I suppose, if you were going to do a surprise election, you would be telling your opponents in the press that you would be going in October, but you can kind of see the building blocks were there, weren’t they?”
He added: “I mean, despite the absolute tonking they got in the local elections. But there was a big announcement on defence spending.
“You had a big announcement on Rwanda – they got that bill through.
“Then there was a lot of stuff on benefits. You can see the manifesto blocks taking shape. When do you think Rishi Sunak decided, you know what – sod it, let’s do it.
Kate said: “I think that they’ve been in talks. Him and a small number of people inside Number 10 have been in talks with this seriously for a few weeks.
“It was an option that they’ve kind of ramped up, but I don’t think they actually decide to pull the trigger on this for sure until incredibly recently.
“You can see that building. I mean, you can’t see the building blocks of the announcements, you can see stuff that was going their way, like the 2.5 per cent on defence, the inflation figures.”
Mr Sunak will take on Labour Party in what is set to be a historic fight for the keys to No10, centred on the economy and immigration.
Speaking from Downing St before hordes of cameras in the pouring rain, Mr Sunak said: “The last five years have been the most challenging times since the Second World War.
“Now I cannot and will not claim that we have got everything right. No government should.
“But I am proud of what we have achieved together the bold actions we have taken and I’m confident about what we can do in the future.
“Now is the moment to choose to decide whether we want to build on the progress we have made, or risk going back to square one with no plan and no certainty.
“Because of our collective sacrifice and your hard work, we have reached two major milestones in delivering that stability, showing that when we work together, anything is possible.
Why is Rishi Sunak calling a general election now?
By Kate Ferguson, Sun on Sunday Political Editor
So, why has the PM suddenly decided to roll the dice and call a summer election?
The first thing to point out is that No10 was not united on the decision.
One camp, led by the Tory Party’s chief strategist Isaac Levido, had urged the PM to “go long” and wait until October or November to hold an election.
This would give them more time to show the economy is improving and let the Bank of England cut interest rates, they argued.
This in turn would let banks cut mortgage rates, which are currently crippling family budgets.
Only then would people start to feel financially better off.
But another team, led by the PM’s Political Secretary James Forsyth, have been pushing for a summer election.
Now, it is important to note that James is Rishi’s best mate.
They have known each other since school, are godparents to each other’s kids, and Rishi was best man at James’ wedding.
They are more than just political colleagues. They are besties.
Anyway, James’ camp reckons Rishi can now finally show he is achieving all five of the priorities he set out when he became PM.
These are – halve inflation, get the economy growing, get debt falling, cut NHS waiting lists and pass new laws to stop the boats.
On the economy, the PM will point out that growth is up, wages are rising and inflation is down to 2.3 per cent – almost bang on target.
NHS waiting lists also dropped for the fourth month in a row, according to official figures out last month.
And on stopping the boats, the PM has managed to pass laws enacting his flagship Rwanda deportation plan.
The thinking is – strike while the iron is hot and you can put five big ticks by your promises.
But there is also grim news for No10 that has nudged them into calling a summer election.
Their flagship Rwanda Bill has passed parliament and is now law. But hopes they will get a flight off the ground this year are fading fast.
Northern Ireland’s HIgh Court ruled that the plan breached human rights laws and therefore should not apply in NI.
This paved the way for English laws to also reject it.
Meanwhile, small boat crossings are going up again.
A whole summer of damaging headlines showing boats on the shores of Dover will only feed a sense that No10 does not have a grip.
Rishi is famously straight laced.
He doesn’t drink, he has never taken drugs, and he is not a gambler.
But he has staked it all on a July 4 election.
Will he come up trumps? Or will he lose it all?
“Our economy is now growing faster than anyone predicted, outpacing Germany, France and the United States.
“And this morning it was confirmed that inflation is back to normal.”
Drowned out by protestors blasting Blairite anthem, D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, the PM added: “Earlier today, I spoke with His Majesty the King to request the dissolution of Parliament.
“The King has granted this request, and we will have a general election on July 4. This election will take place at a time when the world is more dangerous than it has been since the end of the Cold War.”
Issuing a stark warning to millions of voters, Mr Sunak said: “On July 5, either Keir Starmer or I will be Prime Minister.
“He has shown time and time again, that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power.
“If he was happy to abandon all the promises he made to become leader leader once he got the job, how can you know that he won’t do exactly the same thing if he were to become prime minister?”
Responding to Mr Sunak with his own speech, a defiant Sir Keir declared: “It’s time for change.”
He added: “Britain is a great and proud country. But after 14 years under the Tories, nothing seems to work anymore.
“Public services crumbling, ambulances that don’t come, families weighed down by higher mortgage rates, antisocial behaviour on our high streets. The list goes on and on.
“Political chaos feeding decline, feeding chaos, feeding decline. The answer is not five more years of the Tories. They have failed.
“Give the Tories five more years and things will only get worse. Britain deserves better than that.”
As things stand, Sir Keir is on track for victory.
The key issues set to define the general election
By Jack Elsom, Chief Political Correspondent
Economy
Both Tories and Labour will want to stake a claim as the party of economic stability and prosperity.
Previous elections show that voters tend to reward the incumbent government if they feel better off – and punish them if they do not.
Sunak – an unashamed numbers bod – is most comfortable when defending his economic record and has a flurry of recent victories to sell.
Inflation has been sharply reduced to within touching distance of the 2 per cent target, Britain has exited recession, and the IMF has projected strong growth.
He will also point to a recent spate of tax cuts – and almost certainly promise some more if he were to win.
Labour will aim to trash that record and ask voters whether they really feel better than they did 14 years ago when the Tories first got to power.
Expect Starmer and his shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves to remind the public of Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget.
But having backed most of the government’s future tax and spend plans, their challenge will be to prove they would do things any differently.
Immigration
Tackling immigration is shaping up to be the central election dividing line between the Tories and Labour.
Sunak has staked his political life on getting flights off to Rwanda, while Starmer has vowed to axe them altogether.
Were the PM to get a plane to Kigali before polling day, the pressure would be on Labour to justify scrapping a visible possible deterrent.
Labour has struggled to explain its policy to curb Channel crossings in a way that cuts through clearly with voters.
The Tories have dismissed their “Small Boats Command” as a rip-off of an existing anti-gangs taskforce.
But the numbers are currently not in Sunak’s favour, with illegal migration running at a higher rate than any year on record.
And legal migration is still stubbornly high and miles off Boris Johnson’s 2019 pledge of 250,000.
Crime
In recent months both Sunak and Starmer have made big pitches as being tough on law and order.
Realising voters are fed up with crime going unanswered and unsolved, expect them to talk in the strongest terms about cracking down on theft, shoplifting and antisocial behaviour.
Crime has traditionally been comfortable Tory territory and Sunak will likely make pledges about giving police more powers to blitz yobs.
But Starmer has spied an opportunity to park Labour tanks on his lawn and has been hamming up his previous career as a top prosecutor.
War
The world is becoming more dangerous and the public is looking at Sunak and Starmer to keep them safe.
Sunak will point to his recent pledge to ramp up defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 – and seize on Starmer’s refusal to match that.
Labour has outlined an “ambition” to hit that target but is yet to spell out a pathway to fund it, accusing ministers of cooking the books.
And expect Tory MPs to dredge up Starmer’s years-long support for Jeremy Corbyn.
Middle East
A knock-on effect of global unrest is the domestic reaction to the war in Gaza, which has the possibility to seriously hurt Labour.
Many of the party’s once-solid Muslim support base are furious with Starmer’s support for Israel, and previous suggestion it had a right to cut the water and electricity supply.
The conflict cost Labour in several councils at this month’s local elections at the expense of pro-Gaza Green and independent candidates.
As the campaign develops and the Gaza bombardment continues, Starmer will be forced to walk a tightrope over placating his Muslim supporters without being too hard on Israel.
NHS
Cutting NHS waiting lists is the single pledge Sunak has openly admitted he is failing to hit.
He has blamed the lack of progress on endless strikes, but now rarely talks about it as an issue compared to the economy and immigration.
Labour on the other hand see it as home turf and will be hammering the government’s handling of the health service.
Polls consistently put the NHS as one of the public’s top priorities and Starmer will look to weaponise the groaning backlog.
But he will be forced to defend the Welsh Labour administration’s record which is arguably worse than the Tories’.
Stability or change?
Do voters want to stick with what they know, or is there an appetite for change?
The question cuts to the heart of the election, with both leaders sensing mileage in the other.
After being dealt a bad hand, Sunak has insisted he has turned things around and put the country on course for a “brighter future”.
He says Starmer would “take us back to square one.”
For his part, Starmer insists that “stability is change” and a switching of the guard is desperately needed.
Time will tell which way the voters fall.
Labour is currently polling at 44 per cent, while the Tories are trailing behind on 23.
Reform UK are the third most popular on 11 per cent while the Lib Dems are sitting one point behind on 10.
After his speech the PM will formally begin the process of triggering the general election.
He will go to Buckingham Palace tonight with a request that the King dissolves Parliament in the next few days.
Before that a process called “wash up” will take place where government bills that have not yet received Royal Assent will try to be crashed into law at breakneck speed.
It is because they will face away after the election is held and so time is of the essence.
Once Parliament is then dissolved, all MPs will automatically vacate their seats and the civil service will enter a period of effective pause known as “purdah”.
The election campaign will then go into full swing with all party leaders embarking on a whistlestop tour of battleground seats across the country.
The parties will also launch their manifestos setting out their core promises to voters.
Election TV debates and interviews will likely take place in the days leading up to Polling Day.
The announcement of an election came after a day of high drama in Westminster.
The rumour mill began spinning in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
No10 sources initially played down talk of a major statement from the PM. But by mid-morning they’d gone underground.
At PMQs, Mr Sunak refused to rule out naming a date.
And in the early afternoon a Downing St spokesperson wouldn’t budge on ruling out a snap announcement either.
After taking the unusual step of hosting a Wednesday afternoon Cabinet the ground was laid for a major speech.
The timing of the announcement came as the Office for National Statistics confirmed inflation hit 2.3% today.
Mr Sunak hailed the figure as a “major moment for the economy” and vowed that vowed that “brighter days are ahead”.
Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation stood at 2.3% in April according to fresh figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is down from 3.2% in March and marks the lowest level since July 2021.
The data shows inflation is now closer towards the Bank of England’s 2% target.
It comes just a day after the IMF (International Monetary Fund) upgraded UK growth for this year and forecast the economy will grow faster than any other large European country over the next six years.
Meanwhile, food price inflation saw further falls over the year, although these were partially offset by a small uptick in petrol prices.
CPI food inflation edged down to 2.9% in April from 4% in March – much lower than its peak of almost 20% in the spring of 2023.
Trumpeting the fall in inflation today, the PM said: “Today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal.
“This is proof that the plan is working and that the difficult decisions we have taken are paying off.
“Brighter days are ahead, but only if we stick to the plan to improve economic security and opportunity for everyone.”