Series Preview: Mets Return From London to Face Marlins

After an eventful weekend in London, the New York Mets (28-36) will host the Miami Marlins (22-43) for three games.

The Mets are riding the momentum of their come-from-behind victory in London on Sunday. The imminent return of catcher Francisco Alvarez is also generating a lot of excitement heading into this series. The Mets look to pounce on the disoriented Marlins, who find themselves below the Mets in the NL East standings.

As for the state of the Marlins, they have won just one out of their last seven games. They recently cut ties with struggling outfielder Avisail Garcia, who was in year three of a four-year contract. The team has certainly taken a step back from their encouraging season last year.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Tuesday, April 11, 2024: LHP Jesús Luzardo (2-5, 5.30 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.00 ERA)

Jesús Luzardo has not been as effective as he was in his last few seasons. While he is still generating whiffs at a 30.3 percent rate, he has also been vert susceptible to hard contact. In fact, he has a barrel rate of 10.6 percent and a hard-hit rate of 41.6 percent. One potential cause for his drop in performance is that he has increased his sinker usage by nearly five percent, and opponents are batting .400 against it. He looks to turn things around against an inconsistent Mets offense.

Tylor Megill has enjoyed a nice start to his season thus far. His major adjustment of incorporating a refined split finger has paid dividends, as it has generated whiffs at a 57.1 percent rate. The major question for Megill will be whether he can continue to stay on the field and perform at this level. He looks to gain a large sample size of strong production this year, a rarity in his injury-riddled career up to this point.

Wednesday, April 12, 2024: LHP Braxton Garrett (2-1, 5.81 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (1-0, 3.09 ERA)

Braxton Garrett has not been great this year, but there are some positive signs within his statistics. His ground ball rate of 56.8 percent and walk rate of 3.5 percent indicate that he has been able to locate his pitches to generate favorable contact. As a pitcher that primarily deploys a sinker, it is imperative for Garrett to keep the ball on the ground. While he has done just that, his hard-hit rate of 48.1 percent indicates that opponents are seeing the ball well against him. As a low strikeout pitcher, Garrett needs to generate more soft contact in order to find success, which he will try to do against the Mets.

David Peterson, like Megill, has been solid to begin his 2024 campaign. While he has just 11 2/3 innings to his name, he has displayed encouraging signs early. His walk rate of 6 percent and barrel rate of 5 percent show that he is not only missing barrels, but also demonstrating command over his pitches. He has drastically lowered his four-seam fastball usage, which has allowed his other pitches to shine. As a pitcher who primarily uses a sinker, Peterson is seeing its benefit with a 52.5 percent overall ground ball rate so far. He looks to add more positive production to his sample size on Wednesday.

Thursday, April 13, 2024: RHP Roddery Muñoz (1-2, 5.95 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (4-2, 3.25 ERA)

Roddery Muñoz is in the midst of his rookie season with just four starts to his name. While he is generating strikeouts at a 25.9 percent rate, he has struggled with limiting hard contact and walks. Furthermore, his ground ball rate of just 30.8 percent shows that the hard contact is mainly coming in the form of line drives and fly balls. He deploys five pitches with varying levels of success. While his primary cutter has a 34 percent whiff rate and .143 batting average against, his four seamer has a 1.133 slugging percentage against and a .655 wOBA against. He looks to limit hard contact against the Mets.

Luis Severino has continued to be excellent this year. It is still unclear whether the Mets will utilize him as a trade chip in July, or keep him around for a potential playoff push. Either way, there is no question that Severino has emerged as the de facto ace of this struggling Mets team in the absence of Kodai Senga. Severino’s sweeper has been a major factor in his success, with an opponent batting average of just .095 and a 36.5 percent whiff rate. He looks to continue to establish his value in his start against Miami.

Players to Watch

Luis Torrens (NYM)

Since joining the Mets, catcher Luis Torrens has been hitting the ball very well. He is batting .313/.389/.750 with two home runs, four RBIs, and a 219 wRC+, in addition to the strong defensive play he made in London. His contact has been strong, with a 66.7 percent hard-hit rate and 25 percent barrel rate. While this is a small sample size, Torrens has done enough to open the eyes of the fans and front office.

As the Mets await the return of Francisco Alvarez, Torrens has made his case for the backup catcher spot. The Mets will be faced with a hard decision between Torrens and longtime backup catcher Tomás Nido, as both have contributed in the absence of Alvarez. Torrens looks to make that decision more difficult for the Mets as he gains more playing time.

Josh Bell (MIA)

Josh Bell has been hot as of late, batting .333/.357/.593 with a home run and 166 wRC+ in his last seven games. This hot streak comes at an opportune time for Bell, as he will be playing the Mets, who he did very well against earlier this year. During their three-game series in May, Bell collected six hits, including a home run, and five RBIs. He looks to continue building value ahead of the trade deadline, where he is almost certainly going to be moved to a contender.

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