A Seattle Mariners 2024 MLB Draft Primer

The countdown begins

As the peak days of summer approach, the Mariners find themselves firmly atop the AL West for the first time in what feels like a lifetime. With the major league squad performing so well, much discussion has been had regarding the organization’s ideology of “draft and develop” and whether or not it’s hampering the big league team’s title aspirations. Whether you agree with their philosophy or not, any sustainable winner is built through the draft and compensating for poor amateur scouting is something few organizations (if any) can easily do. Fortunately, this Seattle front office regime has showed well in their draft cycles, particularly in their generationally gifted class just a year ago. There is plenty of reason for Mariner fans to be excited about the draft, and we at LL hope to guide you through every last bit of it.

First, the basics:

When: July 14-16

Viewing: MLB Network or live in Fort Worth, TX

Top-100 Mariner Selections: 15, 55, 91

This season, the Mariners’ draft situation is vastly different than in 2023. Last year, Seattle was awarded three first rounders due to various reasons (Thanks Julio!) and had an exceptionally large bonus pool despite picking 22nd overall. However, after trading their Compensatory B pick in the deal to acquire Gregory Santos, Seattle finds themselves with the standard one selection per round and no additional draft capital.

For those unfamiliar with the aforementioned “bonus pool” term, the MLB draft is a unique venture when compared to other major sports leagues. Each team is awarded a certain amount of money to their “bonus pool” dependent on where the pick lies in the draft. All bonus pool allotments descend in value with each passing pick and gradually even out to be roughly the same after the first handful of rounds. This provides teams with a wide variety of options come draft night and rewards smart teams who can best optimize the distribution of their allotted money.

If further clarification is needed, here’s a recent example: The Mariners selected Ben Williamson in the 2nd round of last year’s draft and gave him a deal roughly $850,000 under his allotted pick value of $1.5 million. In turn, this allowed them to save their bonus pool and pay Aidan Smith $900,000 over his allotted pick value to forego his college commitment. This balancing act allowed them to snag one of the premiere college seniors available (Ben Williamson) while also netting them a top-100 draft prospect and high school star (Aidan Smith) in the fourth round. This process is certainly not a requirement and not all teams take this route, but it can clearly pay dividends if done correctly.

Now that we’ve clarified how the draft operates, it’s officially time to preview just what the Mariners might do. Any and all predraft rumors must be taken with a grain of salt; team’s absolutely do not want to show their hand prior to draft night. That said, making informed speculation can help illuminate key trends as well as make the draft viewing process more enjoyable.

In years past, Seattle has leaned heavily on the high school position player demographic. Harry Ford, Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo... the list goes on. That said, this regime has routinely taken a “best player available” approach for as long as they’ve had the reins and have varied the “type” of player they select from year-to-year. This makes it somewhat difficult to pinpoint who the M’s will select, but certainly instills confidence they’ll consider all of their options before making their final decision.

The 2024 MLB draft is a weaker class, especially when compared to last year’s pool of players. There’s a definite upper echelon of players, however nearly all of these players are all but assured to be gone by the first Mariner selection. From my perspective, the deepest demographic of player this year is high school pitching. Notoriously one of the highest variance selections a team can make, Seattle’s current regime has never selected a high school arm in the first round. They’ve taken prep arms in the Competitive Balance round (Walter Ford) as well as the third and fourth rounds (Michael Morales and Ashton Izzi, respectively), but never the first. This generally leads me to believe they’ll look elsewhere with their first selection, however at this point in time, most everything out there is educated guesswork.

With the 15th selection, the Mariners very much fall into a bucket of “wait and see” teams. If one of the top guys falls to them, I’d expect them to scoop him up. However, should the draft break like most expect it to, the Mariners would be left with a world of possibilities that can easily be justified. Personally, I’d love a college bat to crown their class, but many are adamant about the system’s need for pitchers and want them to address this concern come round one. However you may see it, we’ll have you covered.

In the coming weeks, we’ll break down the class by both position and level in order to best detail the landscape of Seattle’s options and make player evaluation as streamlined as possible. It will primarily focus on the guys slated to go in the first round, however I hope to add in some names that may be called later in the draft that I tend to like. With the draft roughly a month a way, it may be a bit of a cram to get everyone included, but I will certainly try my best to familiarize Mariner fans with as many names as possible.

Be on the lookout for the upcoming draft previews and as always, GOMS!