Emmy odds: Anna Sawai (‘Shōgun’) rises to 3rd place in tightening race for Best Drama Actress
“Shōgun” star Anna Sawai, who plays Mariko, a Catholic woman who translates for Englishman John Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis), is benefitting from the show’s move from limited series categories to the drama races at this year’s Emmys. Ever since it was announced that the show is developing a second and third season, she has been rapidly climbing in our odds for Best Drama Actress. The race is currently pretty tight at the top. Can she overtake front-runners Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) and Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”)?
As of this writing Sawai gets 11/2 odds of winning the Emmy, right behind Aniston and Staunton, who both have 9/2 odds. But digging down into the stats shows that Sawai might be even stronger than that. Thus far the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed are split in multiple directions, with four betting on Sawai, four betting on Staunton, three picking recent Oscar champ Emma Stone (“The Curse”) and two favoring Aniston. Our Editors, who cover awards year-round, are more confident, however: seven of them are betting on Sawai to prevail, compared to two apiece predicting Aniston and Staunton. And our Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24 are even more confident than that: both groups have 16 members supporting Sawai.
Helping Sawai is just how strong a contender “Shōgun” is overall. The lavish historical drama has risen to second place in our odds for Best Drama, right behind “The Crown.” With sweeps becoming more common at the Emmys, there’s great potential for the series to run the board if it eventually rises to front-runner status. Also, there’s precedent for both Aniston and Staunton missing entirely: both were snubbed for their last eligible seasons. With no past winners in the race for this awards cycle, the door is wide open, and Sawai might just walk through it.
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