Shock poll reveals Reform could get up to 10 MPs amid Labour landslide – but nearly 120 seats still too close to call
NIGEL Farage’s Reform could get up to 10 MPs as Labour races towards a post-war record majority, according to shock new poll.
Ipsos, which surveyed nearly 20,000 Brits, predicts Labour will seize more than 450 seats – which amounts to 43 per cent of the vote.
This would hand Sir Keir Starmer a colossal 256-seat majority, slashing the Conservatives to a mere 115 seats.
It would be the Tories’ worst result ever, exceeding the previous record of 156 seats in 1906.
The poll also shows Mr Farage’s Reform gaining ground, predicting the party could win between three and 10 seats.
The Brexit firebrand is on course to win Clacton, with Reform also potentially bagging Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency and North West Leicestershire.
The poll is the first MRP survey to be conducted entirely after Mr Farage announced his return to frontline politics.
Meanwhile, Cabinet heavyweights like Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg are all at risk of losing their seats.
Even Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is fighting for his political life in Surrey, while the poll has James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch clinging on.
Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland said: “Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.
“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.”
The poll used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model individual constituency results based on a survey of 19,689 British adults and took place between June 7-12.
It is the second poll released this week to use the technique, after a Survation poll on Monday estimated another Tory wipeout.
The poll also sees the Liberal Democrats making gains in the South East and South West, increasing its number of seats to 38 and regaining its position as the third party in the Commons.
Ipsos said the fate of the SNP was “still very much up in the air”, with the party running a close second to Labour in Scotland and expected to win around 15 seats, a significant reduction on the 48 seats it won in 2019.
But the pollster acknowledged some 117 seats were still “too close to call”, with small changes in the parties’ performance possibly leading to big changes.
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Even so, Ipsos said Labour would still win more than 400 seats before even considering those that were “too close to call”.
Ms Beaver noted the poll was “just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions” and there was “still time for things to change”.
She added: “But this data, in line with most of the evidence that we have seen both in the run-up to this election and since the campaign started, in terms of the mood of the nation and real election results in local elections and by-elections, suggests that the British political scene could be heading for yet another significant shift.”
Tories warn Labour will put ‘Brexit in peril’
By Ryan Sabey, Deputy Political Editor
SENIOR Tories have warned Labour will put “Brexit in peril” after Rachel Reeves called for a reset of the UK’s relationship with Brussels.
Ex-Trade Secretary Liam Fox fears the June 2016 decision to leave the EU could be at risk if the Tories aren’t re-elected next month.
His intervention came after the shadow Chancellor said she wants to revisit closer ties in sectors such as chemicals and for City of London workers.
The comments appear to go further than previously aired on calling for improved trade terms – despite both parties appearing reluctant to talk about Brexit during the campaign.
The former Cabinet Minister said: “Disgruntled Conservatives who vote Reform will put Brexit in peril if they result in a Labour government.
“Starmer and Reeves make no secret of wanting to bring the UK under EU rules over which we would have no say. Is this really the change they want to bring about at this election?”
Lord Frost, who negotiated the UK’s Brexit deal, said: “You can’t trust Labour on Brexit.”
He added: “I’m happy to deepen ties with any friendly country, whether in the EU or not.
“I don’t want to be governed by them and I don’t want their laws and courts to have force in this country without us having a say. That’s what Labour want.”
But Ms Reeves told The Sun yesterday that the UK wouldn’t go back into the realms of the bloc’s regulations after the 2016 vote.
“The Labour government wouldn’t bring any of those things back. But do I believe the deal we got was the best deal available? I don’t.”
The senior Labour figure caused controversy after declaring she wants to cut bureaucracy in some industries after prices have gone through the roof.
She said closer alignment wouldn’t mean abiding by European Court of Justice decisions if closer ties in chemical and veterinary sectors took place.
Ms Reeves said: “If you look at New Zealand, they are not part of the ECJ but they have got a farming and fishing agreement – a veterinary agreement – with the EU. So I don’t want to take us back into those institutions.
“But I do want to make it easier for great British businesses to be able to export around the world.”
She added that she wants to make it easier for companies to benefit from major trade deals.