Better know a draft prospect: Chase Burns

Burns is a fiery competitor with a devastating slider.

With the MLB draft just a month away, let’s continue evaluating some prospects that the Royals may consider drafting with the sixth overall pick. Following the write up of JJ Wetherholt, there are just two of the top college prospects that we have yet to evaluate here. Today, we will cover perhaps the top pitcher on the board: Wake Forest’s Chase Burns.

Burns was born in Naples but grew up in Hendersonville, Tennessee. Playing ball at Beech High School, he put together a strong prep career that culminated in a First Team High School All-American selection by Baseball America in his senior year in 2021. He was a very-highly regarded prospect that year, with MLB Pipeline ranking him 47th in their draft rankings. He had a strong commitment to Tennessee however, and he elected not to sign after being selected in the 20th round by San Diego.

After a preseason injury to staff ace Blade Tidwell, Burns was tabbed as the Friday night starter for the Vols to start the 2022 season. Making his collegiate debut against a Georgia Southern team that would host a regional that season, Burns dominated with five scoreless innings. Two weeks later, he allowed just one run in five innings while striking out 10 against the #1 ranked Texas Longhorns. That put the college baseball world on notice. Both Burns and the Vols writ large put together an incredible campaign as Tennessee tore through the SEC, going 25-5 in conference and winning the SEC Tournament.

The Vols entered the NCAA Tournament as the #1 overall seed. They outscored their opponents 31-13 in going 3-0 in the Knoxville Regional but were upended by Notre Dame in a three-game Super Regional. Burns pitched eight innings across two appearances in the tournament and allowed five runs. Overall, he posted a 2.91 ERA in 80.1 innings in 2022 with 103 strikeouts and 25 walks. For his efforts, Burns was a consensus Freshman All-American, second-team All-SEC, and D1Baseball’s National Freshman of the Year.

In spite of his excellent freshman season, Tennessee opened 2023 with Burns in the Saturday spot in the rotation, opting to use Chase Dollander at the top. After four strong non-conference starts, SEC play began with Burns struggling as the Vols were shockingly swept by Missouri. In his first five conference starts, Burns posted a 9.52 ERA. By mid-April, he was moved to the bullpen to work in a multi-inning relief role. He righted the ship from there, allowing multiple runs in just one of his nine relief appearances.

Tennessee put together a disappointing regular season that led to a regional on the road in Clemson. After taking care of business in the opener against Charlotte, the Vols matched up with the hosts in a showdown for the ages. They prevailed 6-5 in 14 innings, with Burns allowing just one run in 6.1 innings of relief. Tennessee disposed of Charlotte once again the next day to advance to Super Regionals, where they matched up with Southern Mississippi. Burns made two appearances there, tossing 3.2 scoreless innings as the Vols won in three games to advance to the College World Series. Tennessee would go 1-2 in Omaha, eliminating Stanford thanks to six scoreless innings from Burns, but losing twice to the eventual national champion LSU Tigers.

Burns finished the 2023 season with a 4.25 ERA in 72 innings, a step back from his freshman season but still well above average in the modern college run environment. He struck out 114 batters and walked 22. Despite the success he and the Volunteers had had over his two seasons, Burns felt the need for a change of scenery. He entered the transfer portal and chose to take his talents to Wake Forest, seeking a guaranteed rotation spot and the opportunity to hone his craft at Wake’s renowned pitching lab.

As in 2023, Burns opened the season in the Saturday role in 2024 in deference to 2023 All-American Josh Hartle. He struck out ten across six scoreless innings in his Wake Forest debut. This was the first of many dominant efforts this spring as Burns reached double-digit strikeouts in seven of his first eight starts. He put together two separate streaks of five straight games with at least 12 strikeouts. In the ACC Tournament, Burns struck out 15 batters across six scoreless innings against a North Carolina team that would be in Omaha a month later.

Wake Forest stumbled down the stretch and entered the NCAA Tournament as a #2 seed in the Greenville Regional. With Wake’s season on the line against East Carolina, Burns faltered, allowing four runs in five innings. His seven strikeouts represented a season-low and four walks tied a season high. The Deacons would lose that game, ending their season with an 0-2 tournament showing. Burns finished the season with a 2.70 ERA in 100 innings. He struck out 191 batters while walking 30. He was named the ACC Pitcher of the Year and is one of five finalists for the Dick Howser trophy.

Burns has been hanging out near the top of draft prospect lists for years and that remains the case as we approach this summer’s draft:

MLB Pipeline: 5

Prospects Live: 8

Perfect Game: 5

Future Stars Series: 7

Baseball America ($): 6

Keith Law ($): 6

Kiley McDaniel ($): 6

Taking the mound at 6’3”, 210, Burns throws from a high three-quarters slot with a long arm action. There is some effort to his drop-and-drive delivery, but he repeats it well. His arsenal begins with a high-90s four-seamer that has touched 102. He spins the hell out of the fastball and hitters have had all sorts of trouble catching up to it at the top of the zone. It often ran arm-side when pitching for Tennessee, but it has had more cut in 2024. It has been hit hard at times when thrown low in the zone as Burns’s arm angle makes his fastball work downhill. He generated a 35.4% whiff rate on his fastball, which was 21st among Division I fastballs.

Burns’s primary out pitch is his slider, a hellacious offering in the upper-80s that has been clocked up to 92. It’s one of the best pitches in this draft class — an extreme two-plane breaker that completely falls off the table. Burns will throw it to right and left-handed hitters alike. His slider was sixth nationally in chase rate (44.6%) and eighth in whiff rate (62.6%).

Those two pitches have been so dominant for Burns that he’s leaned on them around 80% of the time. He’ll mix in a low-80s curveball that tunnels well off his fastball to give hitters a different look and occasionally steal strikes early in the count. That pitch was fifth nationally in chase rate (37.0%) and third in whiff rate (60.0%). I’ve seen him throw a breaking ball at 86 and I have no idea what it is, but it was nasty. Burns also has a changeup that he throws every so often but it’s easily his worst pitch.

He has been able to throw all of his pitches for strikes consistently over the past three seasons. Burns has never really had walk issues, but good luck finding a college pitcher with this type of stuff that doesn’t have room to improve their command. The stuff will play at the next level, but he cannot simply overpower pro hitters the way that he did ACC hitters.

On top of all of that, Burns is a fierce competitor on the field. He’s the type of player that you’d love to have on your team and hate to play against. His time at Wake Forest’s pitching lab should also give him a deeper understanding of pitching than would normally be expected of a college player.

One interesting thing to note about Burns that Michael Baumann at FanGraphs highlighted recently: a disproportionate amount of the hits allowed by Burns go for extra bases. 41.9% of hits against Burns were extra base hits in 2024, while that number is 44.4% for his college career. I don’t know exactly what to take away from this, but it’s worth noting.

Track record, physicality, stuff, strike-throwing, pitching in big games — Burns checks all the boxes when it comes to a starting pitching prospect. He joins Hagen Smith as possibly the best pitcher in the draft class. It is difficult to separate the two in terms of rankings. Some prefer the lefty (Smith), while others lean towards the one that hasn’t already had Tommy John surgery (Burns). Regardless, should the Royals look to take a pitcher at the top of the draft, Chase Burns is one of the two best options.