4 possible outcomes of the first presidential debate

It’s fair to say no single presidential debate has carried as much weight as this one.

The first general election presidential debate was supposed to take place Sept. 16 in San Marcos, Texas, based on the schedule set forth by the Commission on Presidential Debates.

Instead, in this unprecedented presidential cycle, we got an unprecedented debate decision — with the campaigns of President Biden and former President Donald Trump working together to eschew the decades of the commission's tradition in favor of a unique debate model. We’re just one week away from the first debate, which will air on CNN.

It will be in a TV studio, with no audience. Microphones will be muted when the other candidate is talking. There will be no props or prewritten notes. There will be two commercial breaks, and some intentionally onerous guidelines if any other network wants to simulcast the CNN stream.

Why is this happening? Let’s posit for the moment that Biden and Trump are merely vessels for their respective parties, and are not personally involved in any aspects of the debate decision-making.

For the Democrats, you take this big swing because you believe the race needs to be shaken up, and fast. Rip the band-aid off, see what you’ve got, and try to change the trajectory of the race.

For the Republicans, you agree to this for one reason — because it’s the only way, it appears, to get Joe Biden on a debate stage. So you take what you can get, because you believe, whatever the format, that it is imperative to expose Biden to the widest audience possible.

It’s fair to say that no single presidential debate has carried as much weight as this one. The stakes could not be higher for the candidates and both partisan constituencies. So let’s break down the four possible outcomes — and the political fallout of each.

1. Biden meltdown … brings a Biden replacement?

The White House and others on the left can argue all they want about the “cheapfake” videos of Biden they claim are out of context. But if Biden has a viral moment during the debate — like the one over the weekend where former President Obama had to grab his arm and lead him off stage during a fundraiser after he visibly froze for eight seconds — or if he appears flustered, lost and alarmingly old, it will be the single takeaway from the entire 90-minute event. And it’s a scenario Democrats had to know was a possibility when they made the curious decision to agree to debate at all. (Remember — they could have just passed on the debates entirely.)

If this happens, Trump will benefit in the short term, but it would be the clear impetus for the Democratic establishment to push Biden to the side in favor of a new nominee. And doing so this early would give them more leeway to execute.

Maybe it’s Vice President Kamala Harris, or maybe it’s a contested convention in August, or maybe it’s some other unprecedented plan. But next week’s debate could absolutely be used as the catalyst to force a massive reshuffling of the 2024 primary. If that happens, it could conceivably help Democrats by putting a more attractive option up against Trump.

2. Lose-lose … is a big win for Trump

If the debate feels like two senior citizens arguing over bingo at the old age home, that the reality of 159 years of combined life crushes the soul of America, it’s going to be a bad night for both candidates. Or maybe it’s just that Biden is the worst version of himself — stumbling and mumbling and smiling awkwardly — while Trump is the most combative and unfocused version of himself.

In this scenario, Biden’s mental fitness would probably not be glaring enough for the Democratic machine to replace him. The race doesn't change much, with turnout likely even more depressed because the growing group of “double haters” remain turned off by both candidates. So that makes it a win for Trump, both short- and long-term.

3. Win-win … is a small win for Trump

It’s certainly plausible we get a debate like the second one in October 2020, where both candidates walked away claiming victory. We could see Biden score some points on Trump and get the legacy press and left boosting him up after, while Trump scores some points on Biden, and the right is able to plausibly argue on behalf of their candidate.

A split-decision scenario would again be a win for Trump, because the race trajectory remains the same. That said, appearing competent and lucid is the admittedly low bar for Biden in 2024, and if he passes it, it could help him with “normies” who don’t follow politics regularly and haven’t paid much attention to the race so far.

4. Biden overperforms, Trump struggles

The final possibility is that Biden overperforms expectations, while Trump gets flustered and sidetracked and fails to land the intellectual blows he needs to rough up the perception of Biden.

This is obviously helpful for the Democrats in the short term, but the prospects of long-term help are iffy. Their candidate remains the historically unpopular 81-year-old who sort of said he wouldn’t be running for a second term the last time the casual fans checked in on the exhausting sport of politics.

The Acela media likes to play up every political plot twist as if it is monumental. But this pre-convention general election debate truly is one — with the ramifications potentially leading to a candidate getting replaced.

Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor, is the author of “Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People” and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.