Rangers series preview: The defending champs aren’t playing like it
The Rangers have a championship hangover.
The Rangers won their first title last year, and flags will fly forever. But the team is suffering a bit of a championship hangover. They head into this series six games under .500, with the sixth-worst record in baseball.
Kansas City Royals (42-34) vs. Texas Rangers (34-40) at Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Royals: 4.74 runs scored/game (8th in MLB), 4.00 runs allowed/game (9th)
Rangers: 4.23 runs scored/game (17th), 4.45 runs allowed/game (19th)
The team has been sliding this summer, dropping 10 of their last 15 and 23 of their last 35. They’ve lost four of their last five series (defeating only the Dodgers!), and have only won three home series all year.
The Rangers tied for the most home runs in baseball last year, but this year only eight teams have hit fewer home runs. They have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate, and have been pretty unlucky with the third-lowest BABIP at .277.
All-Star catcher Jonah Heim is hitting just .153/.182/.224 since May 18 and outfielder Leody Taveras is just 4-for-50 (.080) this month. On the flip side, rookie Wyatt Langford may be figuring out big league pitching, batting .302/.362/.488 over his last 12 games.
Infielder Josh Smith has emerged as the most reliable bat and he’s a .324/.407/.528 hitter at home and has the fourth-best line drive rate in baseball. Corey Seager is tied for the second-most home runs among all shortstops and he has the third-best walk-to-strikeout ratio among qualified hitters.
The Rangers are a good defensive team, fourth overall in Defensive Runs Saved. Former Gold Glove second baseman Marcus Semien leads all players in Outs Above Average and is second in Defensive Runs Saved. Gold Glover Jonah Heim is second among all catchers in Defensive Runs Saved.
Nathan Eovaldi lasted just three innings and 75 pitches in his last start against the Mariners, giving up four walks and four runs. He throws a 95 mph fastball, a splitter, curve, change, and slider, generating the 12th-highest swinging strike rate in baseball. His splitter has a 40 percent whiff rate and he is inducing groundballs at a 50 percent rate.
Max Scherzer is scheduled to make his season debut on Saturday. The 39-year-old had off-season back surgery and had nerve-related issues with his thumb. The future Hall of Famer won 13 games with a 3.77 ERA and 4.32 FIP with 174 strikeouts in 152 2⁄3 innings with the Mets and Rangers last year. He throws a 93 mph four-samer, a slider, change, cutter, with the curve as his out pitch. In 22 career starts against the Royals, he is 12-5 with a 3.34 ERA.
The Rangers have not officially announced a starter for Sunday, but Dane Dunning is expected to get the call. He runs up pretty high pitch counts, and has been unable to get past the fifth inning in his last ten starts. Dunning has a much better 3.76 ERA at home, than his 5.51 ERA on the road. He also has as massive platoon split, faring much better against righties than lefties.
The Rangers’ weakness last year was the bullpen, and that hasn’t changed this year. Their relievers have a 4.73 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball. They have the fourth-best strikeout rate, but the third-worst walk rate. Their relievers have pitched more multi-inning games than any other team.
Kirby Yates has locked down all 11 save opportunities this year, and the 37-year-old has yet to allow a home run this year. Veteran José Ureña has been a pleasant surprise this year, although his numbers are slightly better as a starter (2.84 ERA) than as a reliever (3.46). Lefty Jacob Latz has a reverse platoon split with lefties actually hitting him better than righties. Jonathan Hernández has the fourth-highest walk rate in baseball.
The Rangers have their rings, but they don’t appear to be the same team that won 90 games a year ago with former Royals Chris Young and Dayton Moore in their front office. The Royals are 13-6 against AL West teams this year, and they need to continue that success this weekend to stop their losing slide.