Gone Fishing: Mariners at Marlins Series Preview
The Mariners head to Florida for a three-game series against the Marlins.
After a promising start to their series in Cleveland, the Mariners just couldn’t keep up with the AL Central leaders. If it wasn’t already clear, despite leading their division by eight games, Seattle is still a tier below the very best teams in the American League. Their pathway to a division title is pretty clear thanks to the struggles of the Astros and Rangers, but they desperately need an upgrade or two to elevate them into true contender status. The M’s now head to Florida for a pair of series against the Marlins and Rays. This weekend series also features three left-handed opposing starting pitchers, which means we’ll see a little less of Luke Raley, Josh Rojas, and Dom Canzone and a little more of Mitch Haniger, Victor Robles, and Ryan Bliss.
The Marlins took a page out of the Mariners playbook and used a ton of one-run magic to earn themselves a surprise playoff appearance last year; they outperformed their run differential by a whopping nine wins! Unfortunately, regression and a rash of injuries to some of their best pitchers — including Tommy John surgeries for 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and their top pitching prospect Eury Pérez — have forced the team to take a major step back this year. They’ve already sold off Luis Arraez in the first major trade of the season and are likely one of the few true sellers as we move closer to the trade deadline.
Nothing has really gone right for the Marlins this year and that includes major struggles for a pair of last year’s trade deadline acquisitions. Jake Burger was brought in from the White Sox to provide a bit of pop for Miami; he did that down the stretch last year, posting a 131 wRC+ after joining his new team, but he’s been injured and ineffective this year, slumping to just a 71 wRC+ in 2024. The same thing could be said for Josh Bell, who helped power the Marlins to their playoff appearance last fall after being acquired from Cleveland, but has accumulated -0.2 fWAR this year with a 95 wRC+. If there’s one thing to celebrate, it’s the return to health of Jazz Chisholm Jr. He was limited to just 97 games last year thanks to a toe injury that hampered his production at the plate and his ability to run down fly balls in the field. His blend of power and speed has been on full display this year and he’s even managed to cut his strikeout rate to a career low.
Probable Pitchers
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Trevor Rogers had a brilliant rookie season back in 2021, finishing second to Jonathan India in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He’s struggled to follow up that early success, however, with a pair of serious injuries hampering his development. A strained biceps limited him to just four starts last year, and even though he’s been healthy this year, his fastball velocity has dropped to just 92 mph, almost three ticks below where it was in ‘21. He’s got a pair of solid secondary offerings in his changeup and slider, but the deterioration of his fastball means that his entire arsenal is just a bit less effective than it was at his peak.
A change of scenery was exactly what Jesús Luzardo needed when he was traded from Oakland to Miami in 2021. He’s thrived as a key member of the Marlins starting rotation over the last three years after really struggling to find any consistency in the AL West. After a phenomenal season in 2023 — one that was unmarked by any injuries — he’s dealt with minor elbow and back injuries this year. Those ailments are likely the reason why the velocity across his entire repertoire has dropped around two ticks this year. He’s still generating plenty of whiffs with his excellent slider and changeup, but his fastball’s effectiveness has waned with that aforementioned velocity drop.
Braxton Garrett was never one the Marlins most heralded pitching prospects but he’s developed nicely into a solid mid-rotation starter for them. He’s leveraged fantastic command of his deep six-pitch repertoire to surpass his less-than-stellar scouting report. The addition of a cutter to his arsenal last year gave him a reason to curtail the usage of his mediocre four-seam fastball while also giving him a pitch that paired nicely with his excellent sinker-slider combo. A shoulder injury delayed his season debut this year, and his seven starts since coming off the IL have either been really good (three starts with one or fewer runs allowed) or really bad (four starts with five or more runs allowed).
The Big Picture:
The Astros gained a couple of games on the Mariners this week after they won their series against the White Sox; they’ll host the red hot Orioles this weekend. Baltimore had themselves a bit of a statement series against the Yankees this week and are now just a half game back in the AL East. New York hosts the Braves this weekend. The Rangers managed to avoid a sweep by eking out a win on Wednesday against the Mets; they’ll host the Royals this weekend.