3 reasons why the Lakers should not trade their first round draft pick

Although the allure of instant gratification is ingrained into their approach to roster building, the Lakers could benefit from a more patient path forward, starting with retaining their 2024 NBA Draft first round pick.

With the season officially over, oddly no champion crowned and JJ Redick finally announced as the new head coach of the Lakers, all eyes now turn to the 2024 NBA Draft. The new two-day event will see the first round take place on Wednesday, June 26th, and the second round on Thursday.

For the Lakers, Barclays Center will be the setting of their next important offseason decision.

After the New Orleans Pelicans opted to take the Lakers 2025 pick over this year’s, Los Angeles owns the No. 17 and No. 55 selections. Although there are several avenues the team can take with the better of their two picks, many have chalked up the front office ultimately trading it for immediate help, especially considering Rob Pelinka said as much after the trade deadline. And given LeBron James’ timetable, doing so makes sense.

However, as logical as it is to improve a roster more suited to win in the short term, there are enough reasons to resist the siren’s call and take a more patient route. That begins with the Lakers drafting a player when they’re on the clock.

Here are three reasons why doing so could be a wise choice now and later.

A poor free-agent class

After being bounced out of the playoffs by the Denver Nuggets again, it was apparent the Lakers needed to head into the summer with improvement on their mind. Unfortunately, doing so will not be without some hurdles.

Any aim for external help will come down to canvassing free agency, the trade market or the draft. And before you go and circle your favorite free agents, it is important to know where the Lakers’ books stand.

Los Angeles will enter the summer over both the cap and first apron and sit just slightly below the second apron. Staying under it and skirting the suffocating restrictions will be an important mandate this offseason.

As a result, the team will likely only have minimum contracts and their tax-payer mid-level exception — roughly $5.3 million — when trying to bolster their squad. There is a scenario where they can access the full non-taxpayer exception — around $12.9 million — but that will come only after seeing multiple players walk out the door, including D’Angelo Russell.

Even if the Lakers had significant space to spend, this is projected to be one of the weaker free-agent classes in recent memory. This is particularly notable at key positions where the Lakers need the most help.

For example, one of the primary boxes the team will have to check this summer is at the center position. Whether it’s finding a big who can hold down the fort while Anthony Davis sits or play alongside him, adding reliable size to the front court should be a goal. However, given the available names, that will be easier said than done.

There are stopgap options like Jonas Valančiūnas, Andre Drummond and Mason Plumlee, but at some point, the front office must find a viable long-term solution down low to support Davis.

Although history has shown that there are never guarantees with rookies, especially one in what is projected to be a weaker draft class, the right player in the right situation can still make an impact. The Lakers may not find a Dereck Lively II at No. 17, but landing even a Trayce Jackson-Davis — drafted 57th overall by the Warriors before playing 68 games —could go a long way.

So investing in someone like Zach Edey, Kel’el Ware, DaRon Holmes II, Yves Missi or Kyle Filipowski may be the wiser and cheaper choice than continuing to be trapped in a revolving door of fliers.

The cost of making a trade

Executing a trade in sports is hard. Like any negotiation where multiple sides have to agree to terms, a single snag can derail a deal. Just because the trade machine says it works doesn’t mean it makes sense.

This is an important reminder for fans and the Lakers themselves. With several trade scenarios likely on the table come draft night, the team has to weigh the return compared to the cost. Yes, they have to be aggressive in improving the team, but risking an overpay can set them back in the not-too-distant future.

That may sound dramatic if it’s just the No. 17 pick. But given the Lakers’ finances, there’s no deal involving incoming salary that centers around just the pick.

For example, one of the players most frequently linked to the team over the past year has been Nets wing Dorian Finney-Smith. If the Lakers look to reengage the Nets in a deal with their first-round pick, they will have to send nearly equal money as both sides are operating as over-the-cap teams.

With Finney-Smith set to earn roughly $15 million next season, there are not many realistic trade configurations that feel like a home run. A one-for-one swap would have to be for Rui Hachimura for instance.

And if the Lakers want to bundle multiple contracts instead, like Gabe Vincent and Jalen Hood-Schifino, they not only risk shredding their guard depth — especially if Russell leaves — but would essentially move last year’s No. 17 pick alongside this one for Finney-Smith. Even his biggest fans around the league would admit that’s a lot.

Of course, there are bigger names or cheaper players that make trading the pick a more attractive venture. They will also possess three tradable first-round picks come the draft so shedding just one is not the end of the world. But in any scenario, the Lakers must ultimately determine if the cost of losing either young talent and/or their depth is worth the short-term jolt.

At some point, the future has to be considered

Look, it’s the Lakers. They will and have always been driven by the need to win now, for better or for worse.

That likely won’t change anytime soon with James’ looming final few seasons presumingly continuing to take place in Los Angeles. Despite flashes in the form of a run to the Western Conference Finals and James and Davis continuing to dominate, the Lakers’ championship window is closing by the minute.

Because of this, odds are the Lakers will trade at least one pick this offseason which, again, makes sense.

That said, the day will soon come when James is no longer on the team. They will hopefully still be left with Davis to take his place in the spotlight, but what’s left around him could determine what the next era of Lakers’ basketball looks like.

In the scenario where James retires in 2026, the only players currently slated to be on the team’s payroll by then — if they are not traded before — are then 34-year-old Davis, Austin Reaves, who likely will opt out of his player option, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jalen Hood-Schifino and Maxwell Lewis, the latter two who will have team options. That’s it.

A bare roster should, in theory, make it easier to go star hunting once again in free agency. But with the combination of a new collective bargaining agreement dropping the hammer on top-heavy clubs and the continuing trend of star acquisition coming more often via trade than signing, the Lakers embracing a more depth-centric approach could make them more sustainable and likely to survive James’ departure.

There have been indications that the front office is leaning towards this route. Reports such as the Lakers preferring to upgrade the current roster rather than chasing a third star and the desire to build a “system” and “culture” with Redick at the helm hint at an understanding of where the league is heading. Time will tell if this is what transpires.

Whether or not the Lakers select a player when they’re on the clock on Wednesday likely will not be the decision that topples their house of cards. But it could be indicative of how much they value life after James.

Although it goes against their DNA, the Lakers can benefit from the knowledge that sometimes the process is just as important as the results. Live not just for today but for tomorrow as well.

You can follow Alex on Twitter at @AlexmRegla.