Explaining why top prospect Rob Dillingham may fall in the 2024 NBA Draft after one season at Kentucky

Every year, there are players expected to hear his name called early in the draft but who fall lower than initially anticipated. One of the players in the 2024 NBA Draft who could deal with such a slide is Rob Dillingham.

While he was projected the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft here on For The Win’s first consensus mock draft as recently as last month, the latest projections have him a bit lower.

Dillingham, who recently had a fantastic interview with For The Win, is widely considered one of the top players at his position in this class. After averaging 15.2 points with 3.9 assists per game while shooting 44.4 percent on 3-pointers as a freshman, the SEC named him Sixth Man of the Year.

Even though some experts believed he could go as high as No. 8 overall to the Spurs, others are not as optimistic.

Dillingham was one of the smallest players at the 2024 NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, measuring at 6-foot-1 in socks with a 6-foot-3 wingspan. He was just 164.2 pounds, the smallest of anyone who tested.

Here are some of the latest reports about why Dillingham may drop a bit on draft night.

Ankle injury during pre-draft process

Jonathan Givony (via ESPN): “Dillingham conducted his first visits of the pre-draft process this past week with San Antonio, before moving on to Detroit and also meeting with Utah. An ankle injury he suffered prior to the NBA draft combine prevented him from conducting any competitive workouts for teams.”

Defensive struggles

Eastern Conference executive No. 2, to David Aldridge (via The Athletic): “You’re going to think I’m crazy, but Dillingham scares me. He’s an explosive scorer, and he’s tough. But he’s the worst defender. And he does not have a great feel as a point guard. Those kind of guys scare me. It may work out, but he’s a bad defensive player. He’s small and doesn’t defend. Look at Bones Hyland, who I like. Very good on offense. He struggled in Denver because he couldn’t defend. Gets to L.A. (with the Clippers), same thing. With NBA coaches, if you can’t defend, it’s hard to get on the floor. (Dillingham) is an elite scorer. I’ll give him that. And he’s tough as nails. It’s not that I hate him. But they’re talking about top 10. I wouldn’t do it.”

Scouts prefer bigger prospects

Jonathan Wasserman (via Blacher Report): “He’s starting to sound like a candidate who could slide. The Detroit Pistons and Portland Trail Blazers seem unlikely to target him based on their current backcourts. The Charlotte Hornets could be an option, although they finished No. 29 in defense. League sources believe the San Antonio Spurs aren’t likely based on what they’re signaling to agents. We’re hearing teams prefer bigger positional prospects.”