Emmy race for Best Supporting Actress too close for comfort between Kali Reis, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Jessica Gunning

Arguably the closest race at this year’s Emmys, at least according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, is Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress, which as of this writing appears to be a three-way contest between Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country“), Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Fargo“) and Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer“). Reis has the slight edge so far with 11/2 odds, while Leigh and Gunning are tied at 6/1 odds.

But our odds don’t tell the whole story. Reis is ahead for now because of how strong the consensus is that she will at least be nominated. Meanwhile, not quite as many people are certain of Gunning’s nomination, but more of them believe she’ll win. In fact, almost every predictions group favors Gunning for the win: Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24. Leigh is actually ahead when you count up the hundreds of everyday Users who have placed their bets in our predictions center. But it’s possible that our pundits are still catching up to the “Baby Reindeer” phenomenon on Netflix and in our odds. Gunning has been steadily rising and may yet supplant Reis at the top by the time nominations are announced. Scroll down to see the graph that illustrates her ascent.

Gunning also has the advantage that “Baby Reindeer” has taken the lead in Gold Derby’s odds for Best Limited Series. In this era of sweeps, best program winners tend to carry along their casts to victory too. Consider last year’s winners “Beef,” “The Bear” and “Succession,” each of which won multiple acting trophies. So if “Reindeer” is on track for the big win, there might end up being a lot to celebrate.

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