2024 Emmy Experts predict Best Drama Guest Actor: Nestor Carbonell (‘Shōgun’) out front

Having trouble predicting who will win Best Drama Guest Actor at the upcoming Emmy Awards? Let’s consult Gold Derby’s 2024 Emmy Experts! These savvy pundits from major media outlets have chimed in with their predictions, and the majority of them believe the trophy will go to Nestor Carbonell (“Shōgun”). The other potential nominees, per the Experts’ current racetrack odds, are Michael Emerson (“Fallout”), John Turturro (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”), Kyle MacLachlan (“Fallout”) and Paul Dano (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”).

As of this writing, a leading eight out of our 13 Emmy Experts predict a victory for Carbonell: Ben Travers (Indiewire), Clayton Davis (Variety), Dave Nemetz (TV Line), Eric Deggans (NPR), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox) and Susan King (Gold Derby). On “Shōgun,” he takes on the role of Vasco Rodrigues, a Spanish sailor who enjoys a “frenemy” relationship with Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis). This would be Carbonell’s first Emmy nomination after appearing on the small screen for decades on shows like “Suddenly Susan,” “Lost” and “The Morning Show.”

Three other Emmyologists — Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) and Peter Travers (ABC) — instead believe Emerson will prevail for “Fallout.” He plays Siggi Wilzig, a scientist who injects something into his head that makes him a hot commodity in the wasteland. Emerson already has two Emmys on his mantel for “The Practice” (guest in 2001) and “Lost” (supporting in 2009).

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The remaining two pundits — Ray Richmond (Gold Derby) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby) — are forecasting a triumph for Turturro for “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” He inhabits the eccentric character of Eric Shane, a wealthy man whose life ends after coming into contact with John (Donald Glover) and Jane (Maya Erskine) at a silent auction. Turturro won a guest-acting Emmy in 2004 for “Monk,” and he later earned bids for “The Night Of” and “Severance.”

Also looking strong in our Experts’ rankings is MacLachlan for “Fallout.” He plays Hank MacLean, the mysterious father of Lucy (Ella Purnell), who serves as the Overseer of Vault 33. MacLachlan has two Emmy nominations to his name for “Twin Peaks” in 1990 and ’91, but he has yet to win a golden trophy.

Some of the most recent Emmy winners in the Best Drama Guest Actor category include Nick Offerman (“The Last of Us”) in 2023, Colman Domingo (“Euphoria”) in 2022, Courtney B. Vance (“Lovecraft Country”) in 2021, Ron Cephas Jones (“This Is Us”) in 2020 in ’18, and Bradley Whitford (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) in 2019. Find out who will be in the running to join this esteemed list when the Primetime Emmy nominations are announced on July 17, 2024.

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