Continuing claims for jobless benefits reach highest point since 2021

Weekly jobless claims can bounce around quite a bit. Last week we had one fewer business day because of the Juneteenth federal holiday — which might be why we saw a dip in new unemployment claims. Those dropped by about 6,000 from the week before. But continuing claims from unemployed workers already receiving benefits? They rose last week to the highest level since November 2021.

It’s hard for one data point from one week to say very much, but in this case, it seems to be harmonizing with a number of other recent signals, said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor.

“Jobless claims are telling us a similar story to what we’re seeing in the unemployment rate or the hiring rate, where the job market is slowing,” he said.

Openings have been on the decline, and so have quits — a sign workers are losing confidence in job opportunities — even though layoffs are still relatively low by historic standards.

“A weaker labor market doesn’t just come from layoffs, it often does manifest as weaker hiring,” Zhao said.

So for those unlucky enough to lose a job, it’s likely taking longer to find a new one, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

“We are seeing signs that employers are being more cautious with who they hire, how much they hire,” he said.

That was pretty normal in the decades before the pandemic.

“You would often see business leaders, employers, reacting very rapidly to the initial signs of an economic slowdown, and they would proceed with rapid layoffs in an effort to cut costs,” Daco said.

It’s led to a labor market that can feel vastly different depending on your circumstances, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

“If you have a job you love, this is a great economy, you have unprecedented job security. But if you don’t have a job, and if you’ve never had a job, finding one is proving tricky,” she said.

She noted the increase in unemployment last month was driven by young workers in the 20-to-24 age range.

But comparing this moment to any time since March 2020 doesn’t really tell you much, said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

“People are still remembering how easy it was to get a job a year or two ago. Well, it’s not so easy anymore. But that just means it’s getting back to normal,” he said.

Continuing claims are now just a tad above where they were in 2019.