Europe aviation capacity outlook: above 2019 levels again in 2Q2024, but air fares weaken

Capacity projections based on airline schedules show that seat numbers to/from/within Europe are set to be 102.1% of 2019 levels in 3Q2024 (source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation/OAG). This will be the second successive quarter above 2019 levels, after capacity reached 101.3% in 1Q2024.

Intercontinental markets to/from Europe are set to reach 103.0% (down from 103.9% in 2Q), with intra-Europe at 101.8% (up from 100.5% in 2Q).

Low cost airlines have again grown their seat share within Europe, further evidence of their stronger recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

EU and UK fares remain well above 2019 levels, but the most recent air fare inflation figures - for May-2024 - were negative for both. With supply chain-related constraints sill pinching capacity, this raises concerns for the ongoing strength of demand for air travel in Europe.