10 numbers that define the Orioles through first half of 2024 MLB season
The Orioles won their 51st game of the season Thursday. That alone exemplifies how far they’ve come in just a few short years.
The Orioles won their 51st game of the season Thursday, June 27. That alone exemplifies how far they’ve come in just a few short years.
In 2018, the year Baltimore’s painful rebuild began, the club won only 47 games. The following year, the Orioles didn’t win their 51st game until Sept. 22. In 2021, the 51st victory didn’t come until Sept. 28.
As the team emerged as a contender in 2022, it reached 51 wins July 29, and last year, en route to the club’s first American League East title since 2014, win No. 51 came July 6.
Thursday’s win over the Texas Rangers marked the Orioles’ 81st game of the season, exactly midway through the 2024 campaign. The occasion allows a moment to step back, reflect and, well, do some easy math about what the club is on pace for this season.
To commemorate the halfway point, here are 10 numbers that define the Orioles so far this season.
5.9
Gunnar Henderson might just be the best player in baseball.
The 22-year-old phenom has taken a gigantic leap this season, and that’s saying something given he led the Orioles with 6.2 wins above replacement last season, according to Baseball-Reference’s estimation before Thursday’s game, and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award. But Henderson has vaulted himself into true superstar status in the first half this season, leading all players in WAR — both on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs — with 5.9.
Henderson, who turns 23 on Saturday, was a true five-tool prospect as he tore through the minor leagues, and he’s proving that this year with his plus defense at shortstop, his aggressive speed on the base paths and his big bat at the plate.
Here is what Henderson is on pace for this season: 52 home runs, 32 doubles, eight triples, 114 RBIs, 90 walks, 26 stolen bases and a 1.002 OPS.
+119
Last year, the Orioles’ detractors and analytics-focused members of the media pointed to Baltimore’s run differential as to why they weren’t as good as their record suggested. En route to winning 101 games, the Orioles had a plus-129 run differential — an impressive figure, but one that would expect a team to win seven fewer games than they actually did. That’s part of the reason why projection systems again forecasted Baltimore would regress in 2024.
That’s not happening.
The club is tied for the second best run differential in MLB at plus-119, ranking fifth in runs allowed (309) and first in runs scored (428). Baltimore’s Pythagorean record, a metric that calculates a team’s record based on its run differential, entering Thursday was 51-29, one win better than its actual mark.
The Orioles aren’t regressing. They’ve evolved.
1st
In addition to leading the league in scoring at 5.28 runs per game, the Orioles rank first OPS at .782, slugging percentage at .466 and home runs with 136 — 17 more than any other team in baseball.
The Orioles have seven players with at least 10 homers — Henderson (26), Anthony Santander (21), Adley Rutschman (15), Jordan Westburg (13), Colton Cowser (11), Ryan Mountcastle (11) and Ryan O’Hearn (10). No other team has more than five players in double digits.
Baltimore’s pitching staff, despite its injuries, has held up quite nicely. But make no mistake: It’s the Orioles’ offense that is this team’s strength.
44%
The power surge is no fluke. The underlying metrics tell the same story.
The Orioles lead the majors in hard-hit percentage at 44% and rank in the top five of most Statcast hitting metrics. They’re second in barrel rate — the percentage of time a hitter achieves the most desirable form of contact — at 9.7% and second in average exit velocity of 90.1 mph.
Several hitters, specifically Henderson and O’Hearn, rank near the top of MLB’s leaderboards in these stats that can project future performance better than the traditional slash line.
2nd
At the halfway point, there’s a strong argument that Westburg is the Orioles’ second-best player.
Of course, there’s no reason to compare Westburg with Rutschman or ace Corbin Burnes, but it’s a testament to how impressive the sophomore infielder has played this season. His .854 OPS ranks second on the Orioles behind Henderson, and his 17 doubles are second behind Mountcastle’s 21.
Westburg went from being a part-time player in 2023 to an All-Star-caliber one in 2024.
3
The Orioles’ Achilles’ heel has been their pitchers’ ulnar collateral ligaments.
Three starting pitchers have undergone season-ending surgery to repair their UCLs this month. Kyle Bradish, the Orioles’ ace last year who looked even better to begin this season, is out until at least next summer after getting Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. John Means, the Orioles’ best starter during the rebuild, received his second Tommy John surgery in 26 months, and his time with Baltimore could be over. And Tyler Wells, a reliable starter and reliever since 2021, is out until at least next spring after he underwent the internal brace procedure that can carry a shorter recovery time.
The injuries have raised concerns about whether Baltimore’s rotation can hold up for the remainder of the season or if reinforcements are needed at the deadline.
3.33
Despite the ailments, the Orioles have the best rotation ERA in the AL and No. 2 in the majors.
That’s thanks to, in large part, Burnes’ sparkling 2.28 ERA, but the reason the rotation hasn’t sunk this team is a credit to Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez. While they’re struggled in recent weeks, Irvin at one point delivered nine straight starts with three earned runs or fewer and Suárez currently sports a 3.12 ERA.
The Orioles might need rotation help at the deadline, but they’ve been able to be one of the majors’ best teams because of their starting pitching depth.
13
Burnes has started 17 games this season. Thirteen of them have been quality — at least six innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs allowed.
The right-hander has been as advertised and might be having the best season of his stellar career. He’s in line to make his fourth All-Star Game and is an early contender for the AL Cy Young Award. The 29-year-old is on pace to pitch a career-high 207 innings. His 2.28 ERA would be his best since he became a perennial All-Star in 2021.
The Orioles got what they paid for when they acquired Burnes in the offseason.
6
Burnes will almost certainly be in Arlington, Texas, for the Midsummer Classic. He will be far from the only Oriole there.
Six Orioles players on Thursday advanced to the second phase of All-Star fan voting for the chance to start at their respective positions. Henderson (shortstop), Rutschman (catcher) and Mountcastle (first base) lead at their spots, while O’Hearn (designated hitter), Santander (outfield) and Westburg (third base) are finalists.
Baltimore had four All-Stars in 2023. The last time the Orioles had five was 2016. They could have even more in 2024.
4
The deadline presents a logical avenue for the Orioles to improve before making a playoff push. But it isn’t the only one.
The Orioles have four MLB-ready hitters at Triple-A, including two who are among the sport’s most coveted prospects, who could join the team and supplement the roster or even provide a boost to an already dangerous lineup.
Outfielder Kyle Stowers and second baseman Connor Norby have already spent time in the majors this season and have proven they’re too good for Triple-A pitching. Jackson Holliday, the No. 2 prospect in baseball, struggled in his first stint in the big leagues in April, but his pure hitting ability could make him the Orioles’ everyday second baseman by season’s end. Coby Mayo, who Baseball America ranks as the sport’s 17th-best prospect, is mashing the ball for the Norfolk Tides with a .314 average and 17 home runs in 50 games as he waits for his big league call-up. His career .967 OPS in Triple-A is better than the figures posted by Henderson, Rutschman and every other top Orioles prospect in the Mike Elias era.
One of baseball’s best teams still has the sport’s best farm system.