‘Shōgun’ could garner 3 supporting actor Emmy nominations: Just how rare is that?
Having very recently become Gold Derby’s predicted 2024 Best Drama Series Emmy winner, FX’s “Shōgun” is widely expected to be showered with TV academy notices for its massively popular debut season. Its haul is likely to include Best Drama Supporting Actor nominations for Emmy first-timers Tadanobu Asano, Takehiro Hira, and Tokuma Nishioka, which would make it only the ninth series to ever achieve triple bids in that category.
Among the other eight “Shōgun” performers entered in the five remaining drama acting races are featured female trio Moeka Hoshi, Yuka Kouri, and Fumi Nikaido. This gives it a strong shot at becoming the seventh drama series to simultaneously achieve at least three nominations in both possible supporting categories, after “Hill Street Blues” (1984), “L.A. Law” (1989), “The West Wing” (2002), “Game of Thrones” (2019), “The Handmaid’s Tale” (2021), and “The White Lotus” (2023).
This male category was the first continuing series supporting one to see a triple nominations case, preceding the other three by at least five years. Those who set the precedent in 1979 were “The Rockford Files” cast mates Noah Beery Jr., Stuart Margolin, and Joe Santos, the first two of whom then went head-to-head in 1980.
The next nine occurrences involved actors from “Hill Street Blues” (1981-1984), “L.A. Law” (1988-1990), and “The West Wing” (2001-2002), the first of which remains the only continuing series to ever occupy five slots in a single male acting lineup (1982 – Taurean Blacque, Michael Conrad, Charles Haid, Michael Warren, and Bruce Weitz). “The West Wing” came close to matching that achievement in 2002 by netting quadruple notices for Dulé Hill, Richard Schiff, John Spencer, and Bradley Whitford.
The shows that landed triple bids here within the last decade are “Game of Thrones” (2019), “Succession” (2020; 2022), and “The Handmaid’s Tale” (2021). “Succession” then scored four 2023 nominations for Nicholas Braun, Matthew Macfadyen, Alan Ruck, and Alexander Skarsgård, as did “The White Lotus” for F. Murray Abraham, Michael Imperioli, Theo James, and Will Sharpe.
The historic likelihood of a triple (or quadruple or quintuple) drama supporting actor nominations case resulting in a win for one of the involved performers is 75%, whereas the corresponding comedy category’s percentage is nearly 20 points lower. The nine men who each emerged victorious from at least one of these situations are Margolin, Conrad (1981-1982), Weitz (1984), Larry Drake (“L.A. Law,” 1988-1989), Jimmy Smits (“L.A. Law,” 1990), Whitford (2001), Spencer (2002), Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”), and Macfadyen (2022-2023).
There being fewer than 241 entrants on 2024 drama supporting actor ballot means there are just seven nomination slots up for grabs, whereas each of the last four lineups consisted of eight names. “Shōgun” is one of 39 programs with three or more submissions on this specific ballot, with some of the others being “The Morning Show,” “The Crown,” and “3 Body Problem.”
As of now, Asano, Hira, and Nishioka respectively hold the fourth, seventh, and 11th place positions in our odds-based drama supporting actor ranking. Rounding out our predicted top seven are “The Morning Show” pair Billy Crudup (first) and Jon Hamm (second), “The Crown” duo Jonathan Pryce (third) and Khalid Abdalla (fifth), and “The Gilded Age” ensemble member Nathan Lane (sixth).
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominations through July 17
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