Series Preview: Red-Hot Mets, Astros Clash in Queens

The New York Mets (39-39) were 11 games under .500 on June 2. It seemed like all was lost, but things have drastically changed in recent weeks. A players-only meeting in May allowed the group to reset and they have not looked back since, winning 15 of their last 20 games, a stretch that included […]

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The New York Mets (39-39) were 11 games under .500 on June 2. It seemed like all was lost, but things have drastically changed in recent weeks. A players-only meeting in May allowed the group to reset and they have not looked back since, winning 15 of their last 20 games, a stretch that included a two-game sweep of the New York Yankees earlier this week. The offense is producing at an extraordinarily high clip, scoring 6.42 runs per game in the month of June. As things currently stand, they are just one game out of a Wild Card spot in the National League.

Another test stands in their way, however, with the Houston Astros (40-40). They have won 15 of their last 22 games, reestablishing themselves as a threat to make the playoffs once again. The Astros’ offense has been on a tear as well, scoring 5.22 runs per game this month.

Perhaps the two hottest teams in baseball will face off at Citi Field this weekend. Who will have the edge?

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the pitching matchups.

Friday, June 28, 2024: RHP Ronel Blanco (8-2, 2.34 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.58 ERA)

Where would the Astors be without Ronel Blanco? He began his season with a bang by throwing a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays back on April 1. Since then, Blanco has allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of his other 13 starts, including in three-straight. His expected ERA is sitting at 3.57, so the 30-year-old has certainly been lucky at times. As the season progresses, that should balance out. Blanco heavily utilizes three pitches: a four-seam fastball, slider and a changeup. This will be his first career start against the Mets.

This season has been tough for Jose Quintana, but the veteran left-hander may have turned the corner. Not only has he thrown at least six innings in each of his last two starts, but during that stretch, he has surrendered just one earned run. Quintana has now earned the win in back-to-back starts for the first time since 2019. He has also seen a recent uptick in strikeouts, collecting 14 over his last 12 1/3 innings. Quintana has performed well against the Astors in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA over 48 2/3 innings.

Saturday, June 29, 2024: LHP Framber Valdez (6-5, 3.68 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (2-4, 4.81 ERA)

Framber Valdez is pitching well after a bumpy May in which he posted a 5.34 ERA. In the month of June, the two-time All-Star is 3-2 with a 2.73 ERA. Better command of the strike zone has been at the heart of his success, surrendering two walks or less in four of his last five starts. Valdez is one of the best pitchers in the American League when he is going right, and he to be rounding into form as the second half quickly approaches. If the Astros want to continue climbing up the standings, both in the division and in the Wild Card race, he needs to be at his best. Valdez has proven to be a difficult matchup for the Mets in two previous meetings, going 2-0 with a splendid 1.13 ERA.

Tylor Megill desperately needs a bounce-back performance on Saturday. Things quickly unraveled last Saturday against the Chicago Cubs as the right-hander only managed to make it through three innings while allowing six runs on five hits and walking three batters on 78 pitches. He has shown glimpses of his high potential, but far too often he has failed to avoid the big inning or the big mistake. Over his last four starts, Megill has a 7.64 ERA across 17 2/3 innings. The idea of him moving into the bullpen has been talked about, and if he can’t turn it around soon, that could be an option later on in the season. Megill threw 2 1/3 innings in his only career start against the Astros, allowing five runs (four earned) in June of 2023. Both he and the Mets will be hoping for much better this time around.

Sunday, June 30, 2024: TBD vs. RHP Luis Severino (5-2, 3.29 ERA)

The Astros’ rotation is missing quite a few key arms at the moment as injuries have plagued their rotation all season. Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia and J.P. France are all out with various injuries. Houston’s depth is limited, so manager Joe Espada will need to try and work around that in the series finale. The Astros only have four starting pitchers on their active roster, so a bullpen game may be under consideration in this contest.

Luis Severino continues to be one of the best value signings in all of baseball. The right-hander was superb in his last start against the Cubs on Sunday, throwing six scoreless innings with a season-high 10 strikeouts in a 5-2 win. His last punch-out came on a 12-pitch at-bat against Cody Bellinger, finishing him off with a  98 MPH fastball at the top of the zone. Severino has been great at Citi Field this season, going 3-1 with a 2.47 ERA in eight starts. He will look to remain at that high level against the Astros, a team he has faced nine times in the past with a 2-4 record and 4.93 ERA in 45 2/3 innings.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Alex Bregman (HOU)

Alex Bregman could not have picked a better time to hit his stride. Over his last 22 games, he is slashing .337/.398/.517 with three home runs and 10 runs batted in. His recent run of good at-bats not only raises his stock before he enters free agency at seasons’ end, but puts the Astros in a position to potentially catch the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. Bregman has crushed the Mets in the past, hitting .425 with a 1.040 OPS in 10 career games against them.

Mark Vientos (NYM)

At this point, I might as well go with the other third baseman in this series. Time and time again, Mark Vientos has proven that he can be the Mets’ long-term solution at the hot corner. Just when it seems like he is on the cusp of a bad slump, Vientos gets a hit in a huge spot. The 24-year-old is slashing .324/.361/.706 with four home runs over his last eight games, with two of those long balls coming off of the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole on Tuesday. One thing is for sure – Vientos has arrived and is here to stay.

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