Pollster: Ross Valley schools tax won’t sit well with voters

A school district consultant says a new measure would be unlikely to pass on the Nov. 5 ballot. The existing $679 annual tax expires in June 2028.

A polling consultant is advising the Ross Valley School District to abandon plans to place a new parcel tax measure on the Nov. 5 ballot.

Bryan Godbe, president of Godbe Research in Burlingame, told the district’s board of trustees it would be better off waiting until 2025 or 2026 to seek a new tax to supplement the district’s $679 per parcel tax, which expires in June 2028.

“You need a longer runway,” Godbe said at a board meeting Wednesday. “You need more time to explain your needs to the community.”

Godbe made his remarks in response to poor results from a poll taken in early June of 402 likely district voters. None of the parcel tax options presented to the poll respondents approached a 66% likely approval rating that would indicate the potential to pass, Godbe said.

“The unfortunate reality is that a parcel tax measure requires a two-thirds approval threshold,” Godbe said. “You’re just not getting to the two-thirds threshold.”

The poll’s final average approval rating for a proposed $335 per parcel supplemental tax was 61.5%. The final rating for a 17 cents per square foot tax was 52.6%, Godbe said.

The numbers did not improve with either a lower $295 flat parcel tax option or a 15 cents-per-square-foot parcel tax, he added. The poll had a 4.82% margin of error.

“This is really disheartening,” trustee Chris Landles-Cobb said after Godbe concluded his presentation.

Superintendent Marci Trahan said the district needs more revenue to increase salaries for teachers. After weeks of teacher protests and rallies, the district settled with teachers in May on a lower-amount contract for 2023-24, with a promise that the district would work on a way to pay them more.

“We only began the discussion of a possible parcel tax because of the heartbreaking and deeply personal pleas from our teachers and the families of students,” Trahan said later in an email. “It was a big disappointment learning the results of the supplemental parcel tax feasibility study.”

Trahan is retiring after 32 years with the district. She said she anticipates that Tyler Graff, a top administrator in the San Rafael City Schools district who will take over as Ross Valley superintendent next week, will address the district’s financial situation head on.

“Tyler Graff and the governance team will have to help our community understand that we are the lowest-funded school district in Marin,” Trahan said. “RVSD must rely on our community’s support to increase teacher pay, if we want to retain our excellent educators.”

In response to queries about the polling from trustees, Godbe said other communities throughout California havie a similarly low tax appetite.

“In the last year and a half, with every one of my clients, I see that proposals that were seen as OK in 2023 are not OK in 2024,” Godbe said.

Godbe theorized that the chaotic political climate this year might have something to do with it. He said he expects to see a more stable emotional, social and political environment next year, after the presidential election is over.

In addition to politics, Godbe pointed to the high number of measures on the Nov. 5 ballot. Those include a $289 million facilities bond measure from the Tamalpais Union High School District, which includes the Ross Valley.

Also, the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority announced this week it is moving forward with a $20 billion affordable housing bond measure for the nine Bay Area counties on the Nov. 5 ballot.

Spencer Sias, a San Anselmo resident and former Ross Valley School District trustee, told the trustees on Wednesday that they should concentrate on renewing the existing parcel tax rather than asking the community to add more.

“You need to hold the ground where you’re at,” Sias told trustees. “You want to renew, at the very least. If you’re asking for over and above, you probably can’t get to it.”