Marin median home price reaches 2-year high

The median home price in Marin County is creeping closer back to the $2 million benchmark amid a surge in real estate values around the Bay Area.

The median price for a detached home in Marin was $1.84 million in May, according to new data from the county assessor’s office. That was a 9% increase from April and a year-over-year increase of nearly 3%.

The peak of Marin’s market was in April 2022, when the median figure was $2.12 million. In May 2022, it was $2.03 million, followed by $1.88 million in June. After that, it hovered in the $1.5 million-to-$1.8 million range until reaching $1.96 million this March.

Alexander Narodny, founder of Alamere Real Estate in Corte Madera, said the Marin real estate market has become more balanced but “a little bit unpredictable.” He said some high-quality homes fall short of expectations for quick sales, while more modest homes draw multiple offers.

He said a relative surge in available homes in April gave buyers more options.

“It’s less of a sure thing that homes will get multiple offers,” said Narodny, who lives in San Anselmo.

The median price is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less. In specific areas of Marin, Ross led the county last month with a median detached home price of $4.76 million on seven sales, according to the county data. Tiburon had a median of $4.05 million on five sales; Belvedere, $3.39 million on four sales; and Sausalito, $3.14 million on six sales.

Other figures included $2.9 million on 20 sales in Mill Valley; $2.4 million on 13 sales in Larkspur; $2.27 million on 10 sales in San Anselmo; $1.81 million on eight sales in Corte Madera; $1.7 million on 59 sales in unincorporated areas of the county; $1.58 million on 26 sales in San Rafael; $1.53 million on 11 sales in Fairfax; and $1.32 million on 38 sales in Novato.

In the Marin townhome and condominium market, the median price was $850,000 last month, up from $785,000 the prior May.

For the entire nine-county region, the median single-family home price hit $1.46 million last month, according to the California Association of Realtors. That was a 12% spike from a year ago and a 1% increase from April — closing in on the record $1.5 million median price set in April 2022, just before rising interest rates sent monthly home payments soaring and listing prices down.

Now, many house hunters who had been hoping for rates to come back down are biting the bullet and buying homes. Prices, in turn, have been rebounding for months.

“People are realizing we have a new normal,” said Oscar Wei, an economist with the Realtors’ association.

Home prices in the South Bay and on the Peninsula had the biggest jumps, even after cresting $2 million this spring.

San Mateo County’s median price climbed to $2.4 million, a 16% increase year over year, a 12% boost from April and just shy of the record $2.401 million reached in April 2022.

Meanwhile, Santa Clara County’s price reached $2.1 million, a 17% year-over-year rise and a 5% gain from April.

Jim Hamilton, former president of the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors, said he continues to see multiple offers on many properties. That’s primarily because in the wealthy tech capital, buyers are better equipped to absorb the higher interest rates. The market for high-end homes over $2 million is particularly strong, he said.

“Silicon Valley is its own economy,” Hamilton said. “You cannot compare Silicon Valley to the rest of California. You will continue to see that demand out there.”

Should that demand follow historical trends and pick up even more during the summer months, he said prices could continue rising as the number of new homes for sale remains tight.

“We may see even more pressure on the market,” Hamilton said.

Across the Bay Area, total home sales increased 4% in May, bucking the statewide trend showing a 6% decline.

Sellers continued to put relatively few homes on the market, especially those unwilling to give up the sub-3% mortgages they locked in during the peak of the pandemic home-buying boom.

“You have people who are literally hanging onto houses that wouldn’t have before,” Hamilton said.

In Marin, owners sold 207 detached homes and 77 townhomes or condominiums in May, according to the assessor’s office. The prior year, the numbers were 206 and 70.

The U.S. weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.86% as of Thursday, down from 6.87% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage company. A year ago, the average was 6.71%.

Wei said he expects rates could fall to around 6.5% by the end of the year, with fluctuations along the way.

Even a modest continued rate drop would be welcome news for many home seekers. But Wei noted that it could also mean more competition in the market, leading to higher prices heading into the warmer months — potentially surpassing the $1.5 million record.

“You will continue to see the increase in price for the next few months before coming back down,” he said.

Marin real estate data
The median prices for detached homes in the county over the past year.

May 2024: $1.84 million
April 2024: $1.69 million
March 2024: $1.96 million
Feb. 2024: $1.64 million
Jan. 2024: $1.5 million
Dec. 2023: $1.56 million
Nov. 2023: $1.74 million
Oct. 2023: $1.75 million
Sept. 2023: $1.65 million
Aug. 2023: $1.51 million
July 2023: $1.61 million
June 2023: $1.7 million
May 2023: $1.8 million

Source: Marin County assessor’s office