General Election turnout was ‘lowest since 1945’

'There really is no precedent in British politics for a party winning such a large number of seats on such a small share of the vote.'

The voter turnout for the 2024 UK General Election could be the lowest since 1945 as Labour wins ‘by default’ rather than thanks to a huge swell of support, an expert has claimed.

Keir Starmer’s party has stormed to victory as it already holds more than enough seats to form a parliamentary majority, with some seats still yet to declare.

But after the Conservative’s complete thrashing the pendulum seems to have swung to Labour ‘almost by default’ rather than seeing a surge of support.

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Labour has won its majority with a vote share of around 36% so far – much lower than the party’s epic win in 1997 – and there ‘really is no precedent’ for a party to win such a large number of seats on such a small share of the vote, a politics professor has claimed.

Stuart Wilks-Reed, professor of politics at Liverpool University, says Labour’s vote share is more akin to Tony Blair’s third term as Prime Minister rather than their barnstorming 1997 win.

Despite this, the party’s so-called red wall has been restored, with an almost continuous run of Labour seats from the Menai Strait in North Wales to the Humber, across the central belt of Scotland, and several seats in the south and east of England which haven’t been red for decades in some cases.

‘This landslide has been secured on a vote share of around 36%, far closer to the one the party secured in 2005, when Blair limped to his third term, than when he won his first term in 1997,’ Professor Wilks-Reed told Metro.co.uk.

‘There really is no precedent in British politics for a party winning such a large number of seats on such a small share of the vote.

‘Once all the results are in, the new electoral map will look remarkably similar to the one from 1997. 

‘Turnout is clearly down on 2019 and looks set to be one of the lowest turnouts at a UK General Election since 1945.

‘In constituency after constituency, turnout has fallen and in some cases dramatically.

‘There is nothing in these results to suggest a popular wave of support for the new government. The pendulum has swung to Labour, but almost by default.

‘And the incoming Labour government has an inheritance that is far more challenging than 1997.’

Plus John Curtice, Professor of Practice Politics at the University of Strathclyde, cited polls predicting a huge Labour lead early on and high levels of mistrust in politics as other reasons for the low turnout.

He told Metro voters see ‘little difference’ between Labour and the Conservatives, and that both parties have ‘unpopular leaders’.

What was the election turnout?

Though we won’t have a full picture until later in the day, current estimates reckon turnout at this year’s Election is below 60%, a significant drop from the 67% turnout in 2019.

Several seats across the UK have seen voter turnouts of around 50% – and some even around 40%, which is exceptionally low.

Hull East had a turnout of 42.3%, with Smethwick at 48%, Tipton and Wednesbury at 43%, and West Bromwich at 49%.

Starmer’s seat of Holborn and St Pancras had an estimated turnout of 54.6%, down more than 10% on the last election, and just 53% of the electorate turned up to vote Richard Tice in as the Reform UK MP in Boston and Skegness.

Professor Wilks-Reed now reckons Reform UK will have the same problem now that the Liberal Democrats dealt with in previous years.

‘The Reform vote looks to have been remarkably consistent across England, but at a level that will win the party very few seats,’ he commented, adding that the outcome of the election will likely reignite discussions about electoral reform.

He explained: ‘Labour’s victory has not been built on a surge of support for the party compared to the previous election. It has secured its landslide from the damage that Reform has done to the Conservatives.

‘Labour’s landslide also comes with signs of trouble in its own backyard. Labour managed to displace George Galloway in Rochdale, but it was a close run thing.

‘Anger over Labour’s stance on Gaza almost certainly explains its defeats in Leicester East and Leicester South.

‘Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn’s victory as an Independent in Islington North is a result that Starmer will have dreaded.

‘Corbyn cannot make much of an impact in parliament as an independent MP, but that is not the point. His election gives him a platform to make trouble for Labour outside of parliament and within the Labour Party as a whole.

‘The Reform contingent in the House of Commons will be small, but it will surely be sufficient for the party to build on.

‘Farage is exactly what Reform needed to cut through to its potential supporters and Farage will use his place in parliament to strengthen his own profile and that of Reform.’

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