June’s jobs report indicates something we haven’t seen in a while: normalcy

Conditions in the labor market increasingly look like they did before the pandemic.

It’s been a long four years — four years and coming up on four months, really — since the job market, the economy and our world were turned upside down by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Take a look at the June national jobs report. Not only do things look pretty OK — employment and wages are still growing, but at a more modest pace than a couple of years ago — but the job market looks a lot more like it did in the before times of early 2020. That was prior to the shutdowns and mass layoffs, followed by years of frantic rehiring and labor shortages with employers hiking wages and workers quitting to raise their pay even more. 

Could we have returned to — dare we say it? — normal?

In February 2020, COVID was barely a thing yet. The job market was humming along. Then, all hell broke loose. 

But hell has been bottled up again. “The June jobs report reflects the normalization of the U.S. economy back to its pre-pandemic trend,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM.

“This is what an economy at full employment looks like. Pretty easy to get a job. Wage growth, albeit cooling, still fairly solid and moving above the inflation rate. We have an unemployment rate at 4.1% — that’s constructive and encouraging.”

In 2021 and 2022, workers quit and switched jobs for higher pay at rates never seen before. Now, the quits rate is back below its pre-pandemic level, and employers have regained much of their clout in hiring, said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk, compliance and data analytics at payroll processor Paychex.

“A couple of years ago, they were hiring anybody they could just to fill the job. And now they’re being a little bit more selective,” he said.

It has been a long slog back for some industries — leisure and hospitality jobs, for instance, only just recovered to pre-pandemic levels. 

But Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said what’s most important is not just reaching the pre-pandemic level, but hitting the pre-pandemic trend.  

“That’s when we’ve truly healed. Things like health care, teachers and government work — we’re finally in the ballpark for all of those jobs. The crisis period is over,” he said.

And even as job creation slows, it’s still growing more than fast enough to absorb new entrants to the workforce.