Grammy odds update: Pop princesses Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Charli XCX on the hunt for Album of the Year
As of early July, the likely eight nominees for Album of the Year at the 2025 Grammys are Taylor Swift (“The Tortured Poets Department“), Beyonce (“Cowboy Carter”), Billie Eilish (“Hit Me Hard and Soft“), Ariana Grande (“Eternal Sunshine“), Vampire Weekend (“Only God Was Above Us”), Kacey Musgraves (“Deeper Well”), Chris Stapleton (“Higher”) and Brittany Howard (“What Now?”). That’s according to the combined predictions of more than 1,500 music fans who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. All eight have been nominated in or won the category before. But there are three young women gunning for their first nominations in that race, and we mustn’t underestimate them.
Sabrina Carpenter‘s “Short n’ Sweet” doesn’t drop until August 23 — a week before the Grammys eligibility deadline of August 30 — but it’s already up in 11th place with 48/1 odds. That’s probably because the upcoming collection has already achieved two megahit singles: the ubiquitous summer staple “Espresso” (which we rank as a likely nominee for both Record and Song of the Year) and the chart-topping ballad “Please Please Please.” If the whole album is met with generally positive reviews and makes a commercial impact on par with its singles, don’t be surprised if it cracks the Grammys’ top eight.
Right behind her in 12th place with 62/1 odds as of this writing is Chappell Roan‘s “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.” The album has had an unusual trajectory. It was released way back on September 22, 2023 — just a few days after this eligibility period started — but it has only now found a wide audience. In fact, it keeps rising every week on the Billboard 200 and recently cracked Billboard’s top 10 for the first time, a rare feat in this day and age for an album that’s almost 10 months old. With a single that’s also on the cusp of the top 10 on the Hot 100 chart, “Good Luck, Babe!,” there’s a decent chance Roan will be the first artist since Olivia Rodrigo to be nominated in the Big Four categories all in the same year: Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist.
Then there’s Charli XCX, whose “Brat” received extraordinary reviews (better than anything in our predicted top eight) and achieved personal-best commercial numbers for the English artist. Of these three ladies, she’s the only one with any past Grammy noms: Record of the Year and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance as a featured artist on Iggy Azalea‘s “Fancy” about a decade ago. But she doesn’t have any recognition as a lead artist. Right now she ranks 14th on our racetrack with 68/1 odds. Time will tell if she can break through in this crowded year for pop music.
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