Pros and Cons for the Top Three Most Likely Options for the Guardians at 1.1

We’re getting down to brass tacks for the MLB Draft

The Guardians will have the first choice in MLB’s amateur draft this Sunday. No one knows what they will do until the day arrives, but there are three names being commonly rumored as in the mix at 1.1 that we want to do some final analysis on before the weekend arrives.

From public rumors to private rumblings, it seems likely that Cleveland will be choosing either Travis Bazzana or JJ Wetherholt with the number one pick at 5PM EST on Sunday, July 14th. It is always possible that they are moving in silence to get Charlie Condon, but for whatever public rumors are worth, that seems less likely than the other two. There are some stray rumors that the Guardians may surprise folks and pick Jac Caglianone of Florida, Konnor Griffin of Jackson Prep High School in Mississippi or Chase Burns RHP of Wake Forest. Due to Caglianone’s being likely limited to first base defensively, due to the risk of choosing a high school talent like Griffin, and due to injury risk with choosing any pitcher, I think it’s fair to conclude that all three are pretty unlikely to end up as the number one pick for Cleveland. So, we won’t consider them here but you can read thoughts on these three in our earlier series about potential 1.1 picks.

I am listing pro’s and con’s that should be considered, below. I do not believe that all of these pro’s and con’s are legitimate concerns; they are simply factors under discussion.

Charlie Condon, RHH, 3B/1B/OF, Georgia
2024 Stats: .433/.566/1.009, 57/41 BB/K, with 37 homers and 3 stolen bases and one caught stealing.

Below, you will see that Antonio Urquidez @Antoni0u on Twitter posted some great graphics comparing the top college hitters. Please consider following Antonio, as these tweets are great resources for everyone looking to analyze the top options.

Pro’s:
-Condon has the vote of most of the public prospect evaluators of the draft as the best player available.
-He is right-handed which is something the Guardians’ tend to lack in their system.
-He had an absolutely insane season in the toughest conference in college baseball.
-He makes a ton of high quality contact and gets on base at an extremely high rate.
-The general consensus seems to be that, at worst, Condon is an above-average right fielder and, at best, he is a good third baseman or a good centerfielder.
-Condon is 6’6” and 216 lbs so there is plenty of room for him to fill out his frame a bit and get to even more power.
-From walk-on to the best player in college baseball, Condon clearly has great work ethic and drive to succeed.

Con’s:
-Condon was not amazing in his time in Cape Cod in 2023 (.648 OPS in 50 PA’s) or in the Northwoods League (.830 OPS in 289 PA’s) in 2022. So, there may be some doubts if his power transfers as well from metal bats to wooden.
-You can see from his metrics above that Condon will chase and whiff some, while remaining solidly above average in both out-of-zone swing and in whiff categories. One can have some legitimate concerns if those issues will be exploited as he progresses in professional ball.
-At Condon’s height, there is a lot of zone to cover, so there are always questions on whether some holes in his plate coverage will emerge.
-The Guardians seem to prefer players who can play in the middle of the field, and it’s unclear if Condon will be a legitimate option in centerfield as of yet.
-If the Guardians have plans of pushing a high-ceiling high school arm or bat down the draft board for them to choose him at 36, Condon not being willing to take any significant discount may limit the Guardians in the overall talent they hope to bring in from this draft.

Travis Bazzana, LHH, 2B, Oregon State
2024 Stats: .407/.568/.911, 76/37 BB/K, with 28 home runs, 16 steals and 5 caught stealing

Pro’s:
-There is not a single metric above in which Bazzana is below 70th percentile except for Zone Swing rate, which would seem to indicate he is just too patient at the plate.
-His work ethic and makeup are raved about across baseball circles, as the Australian has devoured every analytical tool available to become one of the top two college baseball players.
-His hit tool is unparalleled and he combines it with impressive power and the ability to find the sweet spot of the bat, exceptional on-base abilities and resistance to chasing pitches.
-He won MVP of the Cape Cod league in 2023 with a 1.037 OPS in 158 PA’s.
-He destroyed records at Oregon State, a baseball program from which the Guardians snagged Steven Kwan.
-Bazzana is exceptional at pulling fly balls, which plays very well for left-handed hitters at Progressive Field.

Con’s:
-Bazzana did not hit the best pitchers he saw as well or as often as Charlie Condon did during the 2024 college baseball season. His conference was also far weaker in competition quality than the SEC was. These fact should be balanced against his excellent Cape Cod performance, but it is still a relevant data point.
-Bazzana may be limited to being a second-baseman, and may only be average at the position. Some evaluators believe his speed would play in the outfield and even in center if need be, but that is yet to be seen.
-Bazzana is a very demonstrative player who often seems to be “in his head” when he misses a pitch he thinks he should have hit. It’s fair to wonder how that will play as he experiences inevitable professional challenges.
-Bazzana is listed at six foot but is probably a little shorter and doesn’t have much room in his frame to fill out more. He is somewhat of a finished product for tools and physicality; it’s just about honing what he does into a successful major league profile.
-Bazzana may, also, not be willing to offer the Guardians any sort of significant discount as they try to maximize the value they are bringing back in this draft class.

J.J. Wetherholt, LHH, SS, West Virginia
2023 Stats (Hamstring issues limited in 2024 but still had a 1.006 OPS): .449/.517/.787, 26/22 BB/K, with 26 homers and 36 stolen bases and 8 caught stealing.

Pro’s:
-The above chart is from 2024, as we don’t have a chart from his healthy 2023 available. Even so, you can see that he rarely ever swings and misses.
-He has good on-base and quality contact abilities
-Of the three listed here, he’s the only one who has a shot to stick at shortstop. The majority opinion is that he’s likely to be a good second baseman but there is hope that, if healthy, he can show that shortstop is a playable spot for him.
-Wetherholt, if drafted number one, is likely to provide some significant savings with which the Guardians can try to push another top 20 talent down to pick 36.
-As with the other two, Wetherholt’s make up is great as you can hear on a recent Baseball Bar-B-Cast pod.
-In 32 plate appearances in Cape Cod in 2023, Wetherholt put up a .978 OPS.

Con’s:
-Wetherholt is listed as 5’10” 190, so he is probably a little shorter than that. There may not be a lot more power in his profile than what he has shown so far.
-Wetherholt hits the ball on the ground far more often than Condon or Bazzana do. Perhaps this is something the Guardians view as something they can help mitigate, but it’s an issue.
-Wetherholt has had hamstring issues a couple times in his college career. It’s a big risk to assume those hamstring issues won’t hamper him in the future for a team that is looking at Daniel Espino being unlikely to pitch in the bigs ever and Chase DeLauter entering his third month on the IL with foot issues.
-The sample size is small, but it is possible that Wetherholt may struggle with pitches thrown 94 mph and over, which would be a big issue.

-Wetherholt also played in the Big 12 which is not as strong a conference as the SEC.
-To be frank, Wetherholt isn’t really at the level of what Bazzana and Condon showed in 2024. Can the Guardians create more value in the aggregate by taking the savings on drafting Wetherholt to acquire another player or two overslot at 36 and 48? It’s possible, but it’s definitely a risk, especially when they know it can create a constant topic of media and fan attention to see Charlie Condon raking for the Reds and Travis Bazzana endearing himself to the Las Vegas Athletics for years to come.

A recent clip from Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline describes his guess that he’d put likelihood on the Guardians’ pick as 35% Bazzana, 30% Wetherholt, 20% Condon, 9% Caglianone and 1% the field:

As mentioned in a previous post, I had Brent Messett on Disgusting Baseball Pod to discuss these three hitters and I think he did an amazing job breaking down the good and bad with each of these players. I also recommend checking out Keith Law’s recent rankings of the top 100 MLB Draft prospects for some sober-minded, excellent analysis of these three whom he has as his top three players.

I hope you now feel armed to have some strong takes on Sunday for when the Guardians don’t select the player you prefer. But, I also hope you have some reasons to hope for the best for whomever they select. Personally, I expect the Guardians to use every last bit of leverage they can find until Sunday at around 4:45pm when I expect they will call Travis Bazzana and offer him something close enough to the number he prefers to get him to accept the deal and be the first Australian drafted number one in the MLB Draft. But, I will be happy with either Bazzana or Condon, and, if it’s Wetherholt, I will hope for a couple special names to be picked at 36 and 48. Until Sunday night, we’ll just have to wait and see.