2025 Oscar predictions: Steve McQueen (‘Blitz’) will make history as 1st Black filmmaker to win Best Director
More than 1,400 people have already predicted the Oscar nominations as of this writing, and as I recently wrote, the prison drama “Sing Sing” is the very early front-runner for Best Picture in our racetrack odds. But that film’s mastermind, Greg Kwedar, ranks fifth for Best Director. Instead, our early favorite for that coveted prize is Steve McQueen for “Blitz.”
“Blitz” has yet to be seen by critics or audiences, but its distributor and scheduling look mighty promising. It’s from Apple Original Films, the studio behind Best Picture winner “CODA” and Best Picture nominee “Killers of the Flower Moon.” It’s set to premiere at the BFI London Film Festival on October 9 ahead of a theatrical premiere on November 1 and a streaming premiere on November 22, smack dab in the middle of fall when most major film awards contenders are released.
The film’s subject matter is also typically awards-friendly. It’s set during World War II like the reigning Best Picture winner “Oppenheimer”; in this case it takes place in London during the German bombing campaign against Great Britain. And its cast is led by four-time Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan, who is due for an awards vehicle that will finally nab her the trophy.
McQueen’s own track record is hit-and-miss at the Oscars. His earlier films “Hunger” (2008) and “Shame” (2011) were overlooked by the academy. So was “Widows” (2018). But in-between those he helmed the Best Picture winner “12 Years a Slave” (2013), and all of his films have received critical acclaim, so he’ll probably always be considered a potential awards threat when he has a new film in the conversation.
A nomination and win for McQueen would be unprecedented. To date only six Black filmmakers have ever been nominated for Best Director: John Singleton (1991’s “Boyz n the Hood”), Lee Daniels (2009’s “Precious”), McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”), Barry Jenkins (2016’s “Moonlight”), Jordan Peele (2017’s “Get Out“) and Spike Lee (2018’s “BlacKkKlansman“). None have ever been nominated twice, so McQueen would break new ground there. And none have won Best Director, despite two of them (McQueen and Jenkins) helming the Best Picture winner.
On paper, McQueen has what he needs to be the Best Director front-runner this year: the studio, the historically important subject matter and the prestige. Of course, the film itself will be the key to tying it all together as an awards player. We’ll find out in a matter of months if it’s equal to its Oscar buzz.
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