Emmy predictions: Jessica Lange and Kate Winslet are hoping to make history
Based on Gold Derby’s Emmy nominations odds, “The Regime” star Kate Winslet should expect to be counted among this year’s Best TV Movie/Limited Series Actress finalists. Having already claimed the same prize for “Mildred Pierce” (2011) and “Mare of Easttown” (2021), she naturally poses a major threat to all of her competitors even though she isn’t alone in seeking a third victory. Indeed, both she and Jessica Lange (“The Great Lillian Hall”) have the potential to emulate only five other achievers of triple movie/limited lead wins.
Winslet and Lange are both seeking TV academy recognition for headlining programs that aired on HBO this spring. Over the course of six episodes, the former portrays Elena Vernham, a deranged European chancellor who finds it increasingly difficult to maintain order among her subjects. Lange, who triumphed here for “Grey Gardens” (2009) and “American Horror Story: Coven” (2014), stars in her new one-off movie as its titular character: a celebrated stage actress whose busy career grinds to a halt when she begins experiencing symptoms of dementia.
To date, only three actresses have each collected three or more Emmys for lead roles on non-continuing programs. Despite coming up short on six bids, Helen Mirren holds the record for most wins in this category at four (“Prime Suspect 4,” 1995; “The Passion of Ayn Rand,” 1999; “Elizabeth I,” 2006; “Prime Suspect 7,” 2007). Those who will have preceded Winslet in going three-for-three are Patty Duke (“My Sweet Charlie,” 1970; “Captains and the Kings,” 1977; “The Miracle Worker,” 1980) and Laura Linney (“Wild Iris,” 2002; “John Adams,” 2008; “The Big C: Hereafter,” 2013).
In an overall sense, Mirren shares her record with Laurence Olivier, who was awarded the corresponding male prize for the specials “The Moon and Sixpence” (1960), “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” (1973), “Love Among the Ruins” (1975), and “King Lear” (1984). Rounding out the list of triple lead champions under this format is Peter Ustinov, who established the precedent with his wins for “The Life of Samuel Johnson” (1958), “Barefoot in Athens” (1967), and “A Storm in Summer” (1970).
Lange has also amassed five unsuccessful bids in this category, including ones for “A Streetcar Named Desire” (1996) and “American Horror Story: Asylum” (2013) on which she lost to Mirren and Linney. Along with all of said female triple or quadruple victors, Lange already belongs to a subgroup of four actresses with lead Emmy wins for at least one limited series and one TV movie. The same applies to male actors Peter Falk (“Columbo”; “The Price of Tomatoes”), Hal Holbrook (“Lincoln”; “Pueblo”), and Al Pacino (“Angels in America”; “You Don’t Know Jack”).
Considering that her movie was only added to our predictions center in May, Lange’s steady ascension to seventh place in her race (with 25/1 odds) is rather impressive albeit unsurprising given her awards resume. Winslet, on the other hand, has remained in the top five all season and presently holds 9/1 odds.
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominations through July 17
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