Here’s what you need to know about Spencer Howard

Can the Guardians cook in the lab or is this just another come-and-go body to eat some innings short-term?

Once upon a time in 2021, Spencer Howard was the top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies. MLB Pipeline had Howard’s fastball at a 65-grade, meaning it was fringing on plus-plus territory while his 60-grade changeup graded out as plus. However, it’s now 2024, and Howard is about to toe the rubber for his third team in three years after the Guardians acquired him from the San Francisco Giants for cash considerations after being designated for assignment.

Now 27, Howard is out of minor league options, and while the Guardians are hoping to unlock what was once thought to be high level strikeout stuff from the former Baseball America top 30 prospect, it’ll really come down to one shot in Cleveland, which will begin in Detroit on Thursday. A deeper dive is needed into Howard, who, after being drafted by the Phillies out of Cal Poly, was thought to have big time punch out stuff. However, that has yet to flash in any way at the big league level, and a big part of that is command. Howard is striking out hitters at a sub-20% level which would be understandable if he wasn't walking batters nearly 10% of the time with a groundball rate 6% below league average. Right now, Howard lives in the heart of the plate, and it’s very clearly a big problem.

Using our old friend, baseballsavant.mlb.com, I noticed a pretty alarming trend on Spencer Howard’s fastball. Compared to league average, Howard’s zone percentage on his fastball (how often his fastball is within the strike zone) is barely above league average (56.7% to 55.8% league average). However, it’s where the ball is at in the zone that creates the problems for Howard.

Inefficiency plagues Howard. He often finds himself behind in the count due to poor command around the shadow of the zone early in counts, which leads to further nibbling or leaving a pitch over the plate for opposing batters to crush. 580 pitchers have thrown at least 100 pitches in 2024. Howard’s average exit velocity against of 91.1 puts him on par with Ben Lively in the 4th percentile of all of baseball. The difference between Lively and Howard? Attacking the zone.

This is baseball savant’s “Attack Zone”. We’ve touched on it before with Andres Gimenez, and this time, we’re sticking with the purple zone, AKA, the heart. The heart of the plate is not exactly where you want to be consistently as a pitcher throwing 92-94. For Howard, he finds himself there a lot.

The league average “heart rate” on fastballs is 55.4% this season, nearly right in line with the zone rate overall. The aforementioned Ben Lively only finds himself in the heart of the plate 53.8% of the time. Among all pitchers who have thrown 100+ fastballs, no one in baseball has a higher heart rate than Spencer Howard’s 67.2%. Sure, Lively sits 88-92 rather than 92-94 like Howard, but hitters are batting .389 on these pitches while slugging .556 against Howard. Usually, getting hit like everyone is 1951 Ted Williams is bad, and it’s certainly not been ideal for Howard in 2024.

That being said, it’s certainly not all bad for Howard. He’s found success in generating whiffs with his slider, although it still gets hit hard and isn’t really that good of a pitch, but his changeup has been a real difference maker for him in spots. Despite some tough luck when throwing his changeup (.467 SLG% to .252 xSLG), Howard’s changeup generates above average drop (33.6 inches) with average arm-side run (13.6 inches), and I think if mixed in better, it could actually help Howard make a leap into a passable big league arm.

On changeups in the lower third of the zone and below, Howard has an xBA (expected batting average) of .250 versus the actual .600 he’s allowed. He’s allowed three hits, so let’s look at them. Mickey Moniak’s double was a ground ball down the first base line hit at 93.6 mph. The expected batting average on this ball in play was .300.

On a hit by Gavin Lux on June 29, the single was given a .470 xBA, but Howard makes a good pitch, Lux is caught leaning, he just happens to get the barrel to it and rockets it past the second baseman. That being said, had Howard not gotten into a two-on, one-out jam, his middle infielders are likely positioned better to get an out on Lux.

Baseball Prospectus’s Robert Orr created a great stat called damage suppression. On his page, it is described as “Ability to avoid Damage on balls in play based on a pitch & pitcher’s physical characteristics only.” This means that the location of the pitch is not taken into consideration, and it’s scaled so that a score of 100 is average with a standard deviation of 50. Per the glossary page, the measurement correlates with opponent ISO. Spencer Howard’s grade of 84.8 ranks in the 10th percentile in all of baseball. Breaking it down further, his slider grades out at 84.3 (4th percentile), his fastball grades out at 63.8 (27th percentile). However, his changeup? 150.9. It grades out as the best changeup in baseball at limiting extra base damage.

One final thing we’ll look at: is there more to his fastball than just a four-seamer? The short answer is yes. In 2021, Howard was throwing a cutter 12.0% of the time and a sinker 4.3% of the time. Is it realistic for us to see him develop anything beyond the four-seam shell? It all depends. Firstly, his cutter got hit hard in 2021 with underlying metrics supporting his struggles, and he couldn’t locate his sinker whatsoever.

How long Howard can stick around in Cleveland is the biggest component to this, for two. Is this someone who’s around until Logan Allen and/or Sticks get back on their feet? Can he slot into a long man in the bullpen? How he pitches will answer all of these questions. We’ve seen both ends of this spectrum this season with Pedro Avila and Darren McGaughan. Here’s to hoping Howard can lean more towards Avila. I don’t think Howard is a quick fix kind of project, but if there were some way that Cleveland would be able to hold onto him beyond this season, he’s worth keeping an eye on.