27 Games Later: Set 3

Happy halfway point, Guardians fans.

In case you missed the previous posts, I used to write FanPosts that broke the season up into 6 sets of 27 games. These sets served as a sort of micro-overview of the seasons and to determine where the team was in relation to making the playoffs. My last season of doing this was 2016 where I had determined that a pace of Run Differential (RDiff) was the most useful way to track progress. I missed it and came back. You can find my summary of Set 1 here and Set 2.

Goal

The goal in a 27 –game set is to finish 15-12. This results would give a team 90-wins on the season and in the AL Central, the division title and a playoff spot. A record of 16-11 would give a team 96 wins and be in the running for best record in the AL. Records of 14-13 and 13-14 would result in 84 or 78 win season. So as you can see, in six 27 game sets, there is 4-6 win difference between AL Champs and waiting for next year. I always like to set the goal at 90 wins because that will comfortably get us to the playoffs.

Set 3 Series

Set 3 takes us from May 28 until June 29. The 27th game fell on the third game of a four game series against the Royals. It started with the final two game in a three game series against the Rockies (2) and a return trip home against the Nationals (3) and the Royals (2)(the 2nd game of what was supposed to be a 3-game series got rained out and postponed until later this year). We left for a hefty road trip against the Marlins (3), the Reds (2), and the Blue Jays (3). We get back home to finish the season against Seattle (3) and the Blue Jays again (3). We wrap up on another beefy road trip against the Orioles (3) and the Royals (3). Overall, we have 16 road games this set and 11 home games. Keep that in mind as a good team will typically be .500 on the road. Thus, a 14-13 record this set would be the Guardians playing amazing baseball.

Conventional baseball wisdom wants you to go .500 on the road and win 2 of 3 at home. So for these 27 games, series records of the following is what we aim for:

COL	1-1
WAS	2-1
KCR	1-1
MIA	2-1
CIN	1-1
TOR	1-2
SEA	2-1
TOR	2-1
BAL	1-2
KCR	2-1
Final	15-12

Colorado

The first game of the set had the Guardians teeing off at Coors. Jose Ramirez homered and is in the middle of being the best player in all of baseball. Naylor hit two home runs and David Fry got into the action and showed he is the coveted five hole batter to protect Naylor. We had "good McKenzie" – a lot of strikeouts and not a whole lot of runs allowed at Coors. I was hoping to sneak in a victory on the last game but a bad second inning by Logan Allen put this game away early and the Guardians struggled offensively. Still, a 1-1 start is on pace and acceptable.

Washington

This was the first series I kind of pretty much missed entirely. School is out and the weekends are filled with pool trips and sports and "Hey dad, can we grill tonight" (meaning, can I grill tonight and you eat half of it then aren’t hungry anymore). I caught a little of the third game, but it was a pretty take care of business series. Guardians won the first game 7-1, behind another Fry home run and a strong outing by Tanner Bibee. The first two times through the order, Bibee looks great, but the third time through is a struggle. Still, 7 K’s through 6 and a third innings is a good sign. The Guardians dropped game 3, but a 2-1 series win is always a good thing. A 90 win pace of 3-2 after beating a bad team has the team in good shape. The best news is that this series saw the return of Steven Kwan after about a month on the DL. His first game back was in game 3 and of course he got a hit. He is hitting .362, but because of the missed time, has not qualified for any league leading lists.

Kansas City

We get our first look at the Royals surprisingly in second place. In game 1, the Royals jumped on McKenzie early behind a Bobby Witt, Jr., 3-run home run. He is going to be a thorn in Cleveland’s side for many years a la Miguel Cabrera from 2008 until like 2021. The Guardians were able to claw back and tie the game until a Bobby Witt Jr. three-run home run, this time the Guardians gave us the lead at 8-5. Sorry, it wasn’t a three run home but a defensive play that I cannot explain. There are words there, but replaying it in my head just makes me laugh uncontrollably for like an hour and I have chores I have to do today. If you haven’t seen it, google it, and walk yourself through the situation and the decision making process. I cannot create another series of events on this play that would ever lead to three runs. After a rainout, Cleveland dropped a late inning loss in the second game to split the series. While a 1-1 split is fine, we were one boneheaded play away from possibly being 0-2, which makes me a bit nervous. Looking at the teams on paper, I do not believe the Royals will sustain any of this, but between our losses to the White Sox and this series, I’d like us to play better against the division. Still, 4-3 on the set is perfectly fine.

Miami

The Marlins are not good. Losing the first game of a series to a bad team gets me slightly irritable. We also saw the first cracks in Cade Smith. He is human after all and not a laboratory synthesis of everything I want in a relief pitcher. A bullpen or relief pitcher isn’t going to pitch a perfect season, so nothing to worry about. Guardians come back and dominate the second game 8-0, with Ben Lively pitching another gem. I feel he has had a very quiet season. After never panning out in the bigs and spending some time in Korea, I didn’t have huge hopes for him. But he very well may be the ace of the staff. He and Bibee can claim it I guess, but every time he starts, I feel no anxiety and think we have a great shot to win that day’s game. Kwan has wasted no time coming back. I was expecting some rust. Any rust really, but he is now hitting .370. Add another Home Run and some walks and his OPS is now up to David Fry Range at .955. Speaking of Fry, I am still not believing this will sustain, but he has to be an All-Star right. He is by far turning in one of the best offensive halves of baseball this season and I would hope the fans take notice of really good hitting and not just vote for past performance. I know he will probably get put on the team when it’s given to coaches, but it’s reassuring when fans make the right vote. Guardians also win game 3 with another gutsy performance by Carrasco. I mean every performance by Carrasco is gutsy at this point. I feel any outing could literally be his last, so it makes me smile every time he gets an out. He is bobbing and weaving and making this fight way longer than it should be.

Cincinnati

The Reds are a weird team. They are flirting with .500 and if they were to win like 3 in a row or lose 3 in a row, they would rubber band between 2nd and 4th in the division. We should dominate this team, but they have enough talent to steal a game. Also, I know it’s been like this for years, but why do only ever play them four times a year in a two home and two away split. It’s dumb. Guardians win game 1 and lose game 2. Bibee once again has a great outing the first two times through the lineup, then just can’t quite lock it down. I have faith him, however. Eleven strikeouts in six innings isn’t a bad pitcher. He may just need to work on a few things. Since it’s the Reds, I once read that Johnny Cueto had the following strategy. The first time through the lineup he would only use fastballs and paint the corners. Second time through, he would mix in the slider – usually with two strikes, or a changeup – only against left handed hitters. Third time through, he would add a third pitch, cutter or curveball. Because he had a four seamer and a two seamer it took some time to get the timing down on the fastball, but right when you did, it’s now off-speed or has more movement. Just when you think you can either sit fastball or jump on the off-speed, the ball now breaks down at varying speeds. Bibee has a four seamer, a slider, a changeup and a curve. Not quite the Cueto repertoire, but similar. I may want to do dive in and see how Bibee’s pitches perform. Anyway, Guardians split the series 1-1 and are 7-5 for the set.

Toronto

We flew up north for the first matchup with Toronto. Toronto has been underachieving this season, flirting with .500 and currently 4th in the AL East. They still have a powerful lineup and decent pitching. It’s a road series, so don’t expect a sweep, but 1-2 wins would be nice. Guardians win the first game 3-1, with a bullpen shut down game. Logan Allen pitched brilliantly, inducing many outs, limiting his walks, and keeping the Toronto batters controlled. Will Brennan hit his 6th Home Run to give the Guardians the runs they needed. Cleveland loses the second game behind one of Carrasco’s worst starts of the season. I love Cookie and it warms my heart to see him pitching for Cleveland again. I was hoping for a Scott Kazmir 2013 resurrection, but it looks like Ben Lively has taken that role. Every start of Carrasco’s that goes 5 innings with less than 4 runs I consider a positive. This game, our bats were silent and Carrasco just pitched batting practice. Pedro Avila pitched two scoreless innings with two walks and no strikeouts, but no hits and no runs. I haven’t looked at hard numbers but it looks like he is using his mop up time wisely to improve on his pitching. Cleveland also dropped the third game in a slugfest. Lively got hit early, but Cleveland came back in similar fashion. Nick Sandlin got torched recording no outs and giving up 3 runs. Jose Ramirez missed the series for the paternity list. All in all, not a terrible trip up north, but a bounce back series would be nice. With one win here, the Guardians are 8-7 for the set. The RDiff for the set is +15 and +86 for the season.

Seattle

The Mariners visit Cleveland to wrap up the season series. Cleveland previously saw them in the second series of the season, and won the series 2-1 against good pitching. Seattle may have the best rotation in the majors, but their lineup is god awful. Triston McKenzie pitched poorly in game 1. The rest of the bullpen followed suit and gave up runs all over the place. While our offense was decent, it could not overcome the early Seattle lead. Cleveland rebounded the next game with Tanner Bibee striking out a career high 12 and Naylor and Kwan hitting three home runs between them. Steven Kwan has not missed a beat since his return and is inching his way into qualifying for leaderboards. Naylor looks like he is going to get hot again. Bibee has solidified himself as the top 2, if not ace, of our pitching staff. Hunter Gaddis’ reinvention tour continues to strike out everyone under the sun. Cleveland picks up game 3 behind Brennan’s first multi Home Run game of his career. It is worth noting that he had another hit stolen by Julio Rodriguez, but then was able to get a few out of his range. Two wins puts the Guardians at 10-8 for the set.

Toronto

A very weird schedule has us wrapping up the season series against Toronto with just a one series break in between. Game 1 was done early as Cleveland scored 7 runs in the second inning. The Guardians ended up sweeping the Blue Jays by winning games two and three by scores of 6-3 and 6-5, respectively. Jose Ramirez had 4 hits, 4 runs, and 3 RBIs. A big difference from the series before where he was on paternity leave. Sweeping the Blue Jays pushes Cleveland to 13-8 for the set. Their RDiff now approaches 100 for the season, as we close in on the halfway point. Most modern division winners land in the 80-140 range. Teams the best in the majors float into the 150-200 range. At +94, the Guardians have a chance to lock in one of the best seasons in baseball. The team is hitting the ball well and their pitching is keeping them in every game. Previously when down early, I always felt the game was over. But the bullpen can stop the bleeding and the hitting can keep them in the game until the last out. It is a different feel this season. Another series win and another sweep. The Guardians have a very grueling road test coming up with 3 at Baltimore and 4 at Kansas City.

Baltimore

The first part of the road test is passed with the Guardians taking two of three games from the Orioles. Jose Ramirez hits the Guardians to victory in game 1 by hitting his 236th home run, tying him for third on Cleveland’s all-time list with Manny Ramirez. There are several other leaderboards Jose is climbing up, and he is getting to the point where is leaving the color pictures behind and chasing the black and white photos. Needless to say, his career may very well be the best Cleveland has ever seen when it’s all said and done. The Guardians also win a game 2 slugfest where Jose passed Manny to take sole possession of third all-time and is closing in on Albert Belle’s second place position. Pedro Avila actually pitched two and one third inning in the second game. He gave up three walks and had no strike outs, but again no hits and no runs. He is like half a good RP right now. Kill the walks and learn the strikeouts and we have another weapon. The Guardians dropped the third game behind Xzavion Curry. I want him to succeed so badly but I don’t know if it’s there. He was optioned after the game and I do not know if we will see him again. With the series win, Cleveland is now at 15-9 for the set. The goal is 15 wins, so with three games left, any extra wins are icing on the cake.

Kansas City

Well, I kind of wanted more than this. Cleveland drops the first game as their flight from Baltimore was delayed and they got in at 3:30 AM. Their sluggish offense showed as they dropped a winnable game 2-1. It persisted into the next day as they lost 10-3 behind a spiraling McKenzie. The Cleveland Front Office had seen enough and they optioned McKenzie the next day to make room for the triumphant return of Gavin Williams. Bibee continued a dominant stretch as we win the third game 7-2. The 4th game in the series remains, but this wraps up the 27 game set. The Guardians bump to 16-11 for the set, which is both 1) pace for a 96 win season, and 2) their worst 27-game set record. So I guess you can say the Guardians are declining? With like the best record in baseball. And in the AL. And with like an 8 game lead in the division. Yeah, I don’t know. A lot of games within the division remain, and a lot of home games remain, but the next set gives us the trade deadline, so let’s see what moves are made.

Conclusion

At the halfway point, the Guardians have 52 wins, which puts them on pace for 104 wins. The last Cleveland team to win more than 100 games was in 2017, helped by a record 22 game win streak. Before that, only the 1995 and 1954 Indians have won more than 100. This team is starting to feel not just good, but special. 5 All-Stars on the team in Jose, Kwan, Fry, Naylor, and Clase, with at least three more bullpen pitchers deserving of spots. The system has prospects galore which should enable the front office to go out and get something to push them into playoff dominance. My plea to the front office is please do not let this season go to waste by staying pat or adding a weird piece. Push your chips in the middle. Go for it.

The last time I did this, I tracked records and run differential. I tried to do a Run Differential graph but I can’t get the image to load. So just imagine two lines, one a standard "should be here pace" in the Cleveland Blue and one "we are actually here" line in Cleveland Red. And the red line is way above the blue line. And you see it and go YAY baseball! That all happened. To reasonably expect the playoffs, Cleveland needs to have a season RDiff of +100. In a 27-game stretch, that averages out to about 16 to 17 RDiff. The Guardians are at +102 through the first three, where 48 was the pace.

I’m going to highlight three areas that stood out most to me:

Most valuable change from set 2: Steven Kwan. His month on the DL impacted zero of his performance. He came back just as good as when he left and his early inning getting on base percentage and power surge enables the top of the lineup to do damage early in games. He and Jose will have a battle for team MVP.

Please get them off my team and maybe work on some things: Arias and Logan Allen. Arias can rack some hits but God, I hate watching him. I don’t know what about him makes me so mad but I’m just done. Allen needs to tighten up some things and put in consistent starts. I feel like he can work on some things, but it should be done in Columbus. Having him then Cookie pitch back to back starts is brutal

MVP: Kwan, Jose, Lively, Bibee. I can’t pick any of these people over the others. Feel free to argue in circles about it. Each one is very valuable.

The first half is over. With only 40 more wins the rest of the season, Cleveland could have a 94 win season. I can’t wait to see what the second half brings. See you in 27 games.