Top Ten MLB Draft Prospects for the Athletics

The Athletics pick at number four this year, and will likely have a chance to get one of this draft’s best players

The Oakland Athletics have a critical pick to their club’s future coming up on Sunday, with the 4th overall pick being their highest selection since 1998. They got this honor is a fairly unfortunate year, as this is widely seen as a particularly weak draft. However, any chance to add premium talent into a system like will be available at 4th overall will always be a major boost to a system. The player the A’s choose has a solid chance of being the top-ranked player in the system.

I have a personal list of my top 10 players for this draft, and it’s not going to deviate much from national lists. There is a pretty consistent top 10 that’s you’ll see around, and I’m sticking with that though with some differences in order and evaluation. This is purely a straight list of my 10 best players available, but I will also include how I believe each will fit with the Athletics and have split them into tiers.

Tier 1

Three players have separated themselves in my view as the top three in the draft, and there is a strong likelihood that the A’s will have a chance to grab at least one of them. Any of these three would be my immediate number one prospect and would be an A-grade.

1. Charlie Condon, 3B/OF - It is near-consensus to rank Charlie Condon as the top player in this draft, and I don’t disagree though like many it’s very close. There is no clear 1-1 type in this draft, and I have debated all three as my favorite player in the draft at times. For me, regardless of Condon’s ultimate defensive home the offensive ceiling here is just too much to deny. Condon could easily become one of the premier power hitters in the game with plenty of hit tool to be an impact middle-of-the-order bat, and all the better if he can stick at third base. I guess you could question if his size becomes a detriment to his barrel control at the next level, but he’s been elite in the SEC and has never struggled with velocity or spin. You have to nitpick Condon’s profile to project him to anything less than a good major league hitter.

Fit with the A’s: If Condon is available at four - which I doubt - the Athletics better sprint to the podium with his name in hand. Outside of Soderstrom, Oakland lacks a middle-of-the-order bat with any reliable projection to an average hit tool, and Condon would fit in perfectly. You can find a defensive home for him later, there is no one in the system that will unseat him wherever he ends up.

2. JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B- If you’re not afraid of the injury issues from this spring then take JJ Wetherholt #1 overall and don’t look back. Wetherholt doesn’t quite have the offensive ceiling of some others in the top five of this draft, but he’s 1a/1b with Bazzana as the best pure hitter in this draft and if you believe in the small sample from this spring he can stick at shortstop. No one else can really match his defensive upside and safety as a hitter, though his lack of playing time this spring hasn’t allowed him to really take control of this draft. I think he’s the best player here though and will hit for above average power, making him a guy who can make a significant impact on both sides of the ball.

Fit with the A’s: It sounds more and more like Wetherholt might be the pick for Cleveland at #1, and I totally get it. The biggest attribute he has over the other two players in this tier — his ability to play shortstop — is also less valuable in a system with Jacob Wilson as the clear frontrunner for that job. Ending up at second base would hurt his value, but he’s such a good hitter that I’m grabbing him at four regardless if he is there.

3. Travis Bazzana, 2B - Bazzana has spent most of this spring as my personal number one prospect for this draft, only just being edged out recently by the aforementioned pair. Maybe I’m just bored by how good he is at this point, I’m not sure, though in Wetherholt’s case I’ve been convinced by the glove. Bazzana is a phenomenal pure hitter who could end up with plus power and could easily find himself in the major leagues as soon as next season. Bazzana’s understanding of the game separates him from many other prospects, and he has the speed to potentially play outfield as well. He is the most major-league ready in terms of hit tool and power of this year’s crop, and could fit nicely in the two-spot of most major league lineups.

Fit with the A’s: If I were ranking this purely based from the Athletics perspective I would have Bazzana over Wetherholt. I project Bazzana to be a slightly better overall offensive package, and if both are playing second base (or outfield) then I will favor that projection. Ultimately I doubt it matters, as I don’t think Oakland will necessarily get to choose their favorite at four. I love Bazzana as a player and would be ecstatic to see him at 4th.

Tier 2

4. Jac Caglianone, 1B/RF- Caglianone isn’t a player I see quite at the level of the other trio, but he’s separated enough from the Tier 3 guys that he deserves his own little section. He would be slightly above Jacob Wilson on my personal rankings, in the same tier of prospects overall. Again, I’m going to talk about impact bats because that’s something that the Oakland system could use an injection of. If you’re not opposed to risk then Caglianone is the guy you’ll want to look at, because on pure offensive potential his 80 grade power makes him a rare breed of player. It’s just a question of how well his approach can translate to the professional level, though he has made significant strides with Florida. The optimistic looks at a two-way player like Caglianone and thinks “Huh, I wonder how good this guy will be once he only has to do one”.

Fit with the A’s: Like Condon, if he hits who really cares where you have to put him. That said, Tyler Soderstrom is the one player that has the offensive chops to match a player like Caglianone, and neither player really seems to fit well outside of first base. The best case scenario is Caglianone ending up in right field, where his arm would be a weapon, and the worst case is that you never have the choice because Caglianone never hits. The A’s will have a choice at one of these four players, and I will be a range of mildly disappointed to furious if the team gets past tier 2.

Tier 3

Into tier 3 there are a couple of players that I like, but don’t love. I can see the vision with taking either of these players, but I have preferences fairly strong for the top two tiers. Tier three prospects would come in below Jacob Wilson on my personal rankings.

5. Chase Burns, RHP - Perhaps it’s personal bias that pushes Burns out of my top four prospects, but I have a level of skepticism towards any pitcher that can project into the top three of a draft and in a lot of ways Burns just doesn’t fill me with enough optimism to take him over a premium bat. However, he is clearly the top pitcher in this draft and I’m not particularly concerned about a bullpen future for him. Yes, injuries can always be an impact, but if Burns stays healthy I think his fastball/slider are both elite, and his strike-throwing is good enough to start even if you’re pessimistic about his other secondaries. Evaluating him as a primary two-pitch guy with the curveball and changeup both in a developmental stage, he still projects as a 2/3 with a clear #1 ceiling.

Fit with the A’s: For as much as Oakland needs a true impact bat, they may be even more in need of a true top-of-the-rotation arm. Mason Miller may get that shot, but history doesn’t feed confidence. Luis Morales is talented, but enigmatic. Burns could be the solidifying force to their rotation for years to come. However, if anyone in the top 3 wants a pitcher (and it seems the case for Colorado) he won’t even be available, and Oakland historically likes to spend their top picks on hitting. The point in Burns’s favor if he’s available — Oakland loves to acquire near-ready pitching in trade, and it’s become increasingly difficult to come by quality, major league ready pitchers. Burns could push his way to the major leagues as soon as next season, making him the easiest way to add depth and ceiling to a pitching rotation for anyone with a chance to pick him.

6. Nick Kurtz, 1B - A lot of the negativity around Kurtz seems more to do with his shoulder than his actual production, and while I see the point there I am not one of those to give that a major red flag given how well he recovered down the stretch. Kurtz has a great feeling for the strike zone and for contact, though his large body and long levers do give a little bit of hesitance for how his hit tool will translate to the professional level. Still, every indication is that he can hit and hit the ball a long way, with him being another that can be a middle-of-the-order force. The only caveat: he’s a first baseman all the way.

Fit with the A’s: If you’re too worried about Caglianone’s hit tool, and want the safe college bat without the tier one guys on the board, then maybe Kurtz is the guy you go to here. This pick wouldn’t be terrible for Oakland, they could certainly convince me of it, but I don’t see him being better than Tyler Soderstrom, so then where do you put him. I always say draft for best player available, so if you think he is that then sure but I personally don’t think he’s all that close to the top four.

Tier 4

If the Athletics get into tier four then they really have to be looking at getting a discount and spreading out money, but I also don’t think I see these guys as huge discount options either. The Athletics certainly have their own evaluations of players and may go off of our radars a bit, but they have historically liked college bats and that’s kind of the only strong point in this draft so I don’t know if they even get to this point given the other options. These players would rank below Morales at #3 for me.

7. Hagen Smith, LHP - I like Hagen Smith a ton and think he is a great value pick, clearly the number two pitcher in this draft. However, that is coming from a very weak pitching class and Smith is a risky play for a top four pick. His results are fantastic, and his odd arm angle gives his fastball an abnormal shape that let’s it play above it’s already above average to plus velocity. He mixes in a potentially plus slider and a splitter that has shown promise, but his command has been less than stellar and he runs reliever risk with both pitch mix, command, and Tommy John history. He lacks #1 potential, but could be a #2 type and would be in the mix as the best pitching prospect in the system.

Fit with the A’s: If Burns isn’t there I don’t see a reason to go pitcher for Oakland unless they really want a pitcher for some reason. That really doesn’t seem to be the case, and while Smith made progress early in the season he ended on a more sour note and played himself out of contention to be the first pitcher off of the board.

8. Bryce Rainer, SS - Rainer is a legitimate two-way prospect, but he has separated himself as a hitter and is in my opinion the best of a weak class of players. No prep bat in this class, outside of Theo Gillen who lacks the upside to be a top-ten pick, really has a confident hit tool projection and it pushes guys like Rainer and Konnor Griffin up a bit. I like Rainer’s hit tool and swing better than Griffin’s and don’t worry about the raw power gap too much, as I think Rainer has a better chance of actually getting to that power. I also like Rainer more to stick at shortstop, though that isn’t a guarantee.

Fit with the A’s: Rainer isn’t a guy I like for the A’s at four. It’s just too high a pick for him, and the risk is too high for either of the prep bats. I would probably even rather risk picking Griffin, who would fit better in the outfield where there is a direct line to Oakland.

9. Braden Montgomery, RF - There is plenty of ceiling to like with Braden Montgomery, but for me sits right below the cut-off line for the college bats that I really see as top six pick caliber players. Montgomery has raw power, but not the double plus to 80 grade of some of the college hitters above him, and for those with similar raw power he lacks nearly the same level of a hit tool. There is concern about Montgomery’s chase rates and contact skill, and he also isn’t likely to play in a premium defensive position. The upside here is a 30 home run outfielder, but he will move slower than other college prospects.

Fit with the A’s: This would be a different conversation if Montgomery was a center fielder rather than a right fielder, but I think the risk here is a bit too high with approach and contact concerns. The other side of the coin here is that if you are willing to absorb that hit tool risk, you can get a player with plus raw power and bat speed and develop him a system that isn’t flush with those sort of players.

10. Konnor Griffin, SS/CF - Griffin could end up the best player in this draft, or could end up the biggest bust out of the top ten. This is an elite athletic toolset that could play shortstop or be an elite center fielder, all while hitting 30+ home runs. The downside is a long, laborious swing that needs significant refinement for him to even hit Double-A quality pitching. These could be fixable issues, and his upside is a perennial MVP candidate. Condon is the only player with a similar sort of realistic ceiling, though Griffin plays a premium defensive position.

Fit with the A’s: While I have a better projection on Rainer, if the A’s were going to take the risk on a prep bat with the fourth pick, I would say go all in on risk and get the player with the highest ceiling in the draft. I wouldn’t like the pick, I think fourth is way too high for a player with this risk profile, but Griffin would certainly be impactful for the A’s future one way or another.