Rwanda is headed for a for a one-sided election

Incumbent President Kagame is expected to win easily amid allegations of the expulsion of opposition candidates, harassment of journalists and assassination of critics.

Only two candidates were cleared by the electoral body to oppose President Kagame

Originally published on Global Voices

Rwandans will go to the polls on Monday, July 15, to vote in the country's presidential elections. The elections will also seek to fill the 80-member parliament, in which more than 500 candidates have expressed interest.

According to Human Rights Watch and news reports, including The Conversation, the election outcome is obvious, given allegations of crowd manipulation, expulsion of opposition candidates, harassment of journalists and assassination of critics.

As noted by BBC News, only two candidates were cleared by the electoral body: the leader of the Democratic Green party, Frank Habineza and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana. 

According to TRT Afrika, 47-year-old Habineza has promised to remove land taxes, improve access to healthcare and education, and decongest prisons by lifting the 30-day pretrial detention of suspects, while Mpayiman has pledged to reduce the number of members of parliament in Rwanda from 80 to 65 to improve efficiency. The 54-year-old has also promised to improve the education sector and boost food security. On the other hand, President Paul Kagame, 66, has pledged stable and development-oriented leadership as leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RFP), and to continue to promote unity among Rwandans.

President Kagame had been a commander of the RPF, the rebel force that invaded Rwanda in 1990 and played a major role in the Rwandan Civil War, ultimately ending the genocide. From 1994 to 2000, he was seen as Rwanda's de facto leader while serving as vice president and minister of defence under President Pasteur Bizimungu. In 2000, Bizimungu resigned following a falling out with the RPF. He was replaced by Kagame, and the vice-presidential post was abolished.

President Kagame, now seeking a fourth term in this election, is eligible for re-election following a 2015 constitutional amendment allowing him to run for three more terms. Because of the changes, he was able to run for a third seven-year term in 2017 but reduced the term limit to five years from 2024. According to TRT Afrika, the qualifications for president in Rwanda include “having irreproachable morals,” not having served a prison term of six months or more, and being at least 35 years of age.

Meanwhile, Diane Rwigara, an outspoken critic of President Kagame, was barred from contesting in the election. According to the BBC, the electoral commission stated that Rwigara did not submit the required documentation proving she had no criminal record and failed to demonstrate sufficient nationwide support to qualify as a candidate.

However, Rwigara believes she has been denied her right to contest, as she stated on X (formerly Twitter):

After all the time, work and effort I put in, I am very disappointed to hear that I am not on the list of presidential candidates. @PaulKagame why won't you let me run?
This is the second time you cheat me out of my right to campaign.

Ndababaye.

— Shima Diane Rwigara (@ShimaRwigara) June 7, 2024

In August 2017, she was also barred from vying in that year’s election.

As reported by TRT Afrika in this TikTok video, she was accused of using the names of deceased individuals and identities of members from other political parties on her endorsement list. However, in December 2018, after she spent over a year in custody, the High Court in Rwanda's capital, Kigali, acquitted her and her mother of charges of incitement and forging supporters’ signatures.

The aspirant, who is in her early 40s, told BBC News that she represents the majority of Rwandans who live in fear and lack freedom in their own country. She added that Rwanda is depicted as having a growing economy, but the reality is that many people lack basic necessities such as food, water, and shelter.

Another aspiring candidate, Victoire Ingabire, was also barred from contesting the election. She described her ordeal of being suppressed by the Rwandan government on Foreign Policy's website, where she detailed her arrest, trial, conviction, and serving eight years of a 15-year prison sentence on charges criticized as politically motivated by Human Rights Watch, the European Parliament, and the U.S. Department of State.

Ingabire accused the Rwandan government of excluding citizens from decision-making and prioritizing RPF ideology over the interests of its constituents. While Rwanda's impressive economic growth has been acknowledged by the World Bank, she stated that this was not inclusive and had significant shortcomings in sectors crucial for genuine social and economic transformation.

As highlighted by The Conversation, the Rwandan government has also been accused of silencing critics. In late May 2024, media outlets led by the journalist network Forbidden Stories released “Rwanda Classified,” a series of reports presenting evidence about the suspicious death of Rwandan journalist and government critic John Williams Ntwali.

AI tools are also allegedly being used to disrupt online discussions and promote the Rwandan government's narratives, which The Conversation deemed “a dangerous new trend in Africa.”

After the publication of Rwanda Classified, investigations by Media Forensics Hub identified about 464 accounts that flooded online discussions of the report with content supportive of the Paul Kagame regime. Many of the accounts tied to the same network had been active on X since January 2024, during which time the network produced over 650,000 messages.

On Tuesday, July 2, in Kirehe town, Eastern Province, President Kagame challenged those who accused him of manipulating crowds to populate his rallies. He stated, “If being an authoritarian leader, as they call me, guarantees big happy crowds like this one here, I dare them to try doing so in their countries and await the outcome.” Kagame argued that critics fail to understand Rwanda's uniqueness.

Despite Kagame's defense of his crowd-pulling ability and charisma, contrasting images reveal that the other two candidates in this month's presidential election are struggling to attract even a fraction of the attendees at Kagame's rallies.

Though Mpayimana and Habineza remain optimistic about their chances, political observers liken their efforts to a David versus Goliath battle, with Kagame as Goliath. The president and his RPF party have the advantage of incumbency and better financial resources.

As reported by ENCA news, cars, flags, posters, and banners featuring the ruling party's red, white, and blue colors, along with slogans like “Tora Kagame Paul” (“Vote Paul Kagame”) and “PK24″ (for “Paul Kagame 2024″), are prominently displayed everywhere. Kagame's rallies also feature the performance of popular musicians as shown in the X post below:

WATCH: Bwiza, who produced the hit song ‘Ogera’ for RPF Inkotanyi campaigns alongside Bruce Melodie, performs at the party's final campaign rally in Gahanga, Kicukiro, Kigali.

Presidential candidate #Kagame is awaited by a massive crowd of supporters.

: @MugwizaO /TNT pic.twitter.com/84H2yKPfjZ

— The New Times (Rwanda) (@NewTimesRwanda) July 13, 2024

The same candidates ran for office in the 2017 elections. Kagame won with 98.79 percent or 6.7 million votes, Mpayimana got 0.7 percent or 49,031 votes, and Habineza received 0.5 percent, or 33,000 votes.

Written by Zita Zage