Rush hour will truly be hell by 2080 as world population reaches 10,300,000,000

'The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign.'

To your left, there’s a man’s sweaty armpit. To your right, the window of your train, which you’re currently squished up against.

Rush hour on public transport isn’t anyone’s idea of fun. But within a few decades, the entire world might feel like it.

A baby born today will be 54 in 2080 when demographers at the UN expect the size of humanity to peak at 10.3billion.

Up until the turn of the 19th century, fewer than 1,000,000,000 of us roamed the Earth. It took more than a century for that figure to double.

Now as you read this, 8,200,000,000 people are buying groceries, clocking into work and, we hope, reading Metro.co.uk.

According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, increases in life expectancy, decreases in child mortality and people having smaller families are among the reasons for the population peak 60 years from now.

After this, the growth rate will – for the first time since the Black Death 700 years ago – drop. We’ll end the 21st century on a respectable 10,200,000,000.

While there are quite a few zeroes there still, this is lower and sooner than the UN first predicted.

Li Junhua, the UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, said: ‘In some countries, the birthrate is now even lower than previously anticipated and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.

‘The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.’

Junha says that what matters most isn’t how many of us there are, it’s how we all live.

‘Slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person,’ she said.

Things are going to be pretty different over the next few decades. For one, people aged 65 or over will outnumber people under 18 by the 2080s.

But we will already be used to this. By the next decade, people aged 80 and over will outnumber babies.

You’re also more likely to live longer. After taking a hit due to the coronavirus pandemic, average life expectancy is now 73.3 – by 2054, it will be 77.

And, according to the UN, there’s a one in four chance that you’re in a country whose population has already peaked in size, so will now decrease.

These 63 countries include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. While in Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, alongside another 44 others, the population will peak by 2054.

This peak is a long way off in the US, India and 121 other countries and areas, however. Instead, they’ll keep increasing through 2054, ‘and, potentially, to peak in the second half of the century or later’.

‘Countries such as France, Sweden and the UK in Europe are likely to continue to increase in population size through the second half of the century albeit at a relatively slow pace, stabilizing around the size of their peak,’ the UN report added.

Population growth is turbocharged in Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia, UN demographers say. Their populations will double between 2024 and 2054, though experts worry this will strain their already struggling health and social systems.

These nations will face a balancing act of boasting economic growth while not consuming too much energy amid climate change. Wealthier nations that have long gobbled up more resources and spew planet-warming gases must do more, too.

A decade ago, the UN said there was a 30% chance that the global population would peak this century. Now there’s an 80% chance.

A big reason has been ‘ultra-low’ fertility rates in large countries, such as China, with women having fewer than 1.4 births. In some countries, such as the US and Australia, immigration will be ‘the main driver of future growth’.

In their report, the UN experts say they are the first to admit that seeing all these numbers can fill us with ‘anxiety and confusion’.

Not only can it make us feel a tad claustrophobic, but worry about how more people impact the environment, deepen poverty and threaten resources.

But they stressed that their report, while a warning of what is to come, is also a reminder of how far humanity has come.

Over the past 200 years, there have been profound advances in living standards. Longer lives, healthier children, better education and more.

Women’s equality and empowerment are also offsetting the negative effects of population growth, which is one reason the peak is sooner than expected.

Think higher legal marriage ages, better education rates, paid parental leave, good quality childcare and the ‘equal distribution’ of caregiving and homemaking.

There are things we can do now, too. Governments should do more to decrease teenage pregnancies, which have ‘harmful effects’ on mothers and children.

Access to sexual and reproductive health care, including contraception, must also be encouraged in poorer countries. In countries with high growth rates, more investment is needed in education, public health, water and sanitation.

‘Everyone counts,’ said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

‘When data and other systems work for those on the margins, they work for everyone,’ he added. ‘This is how we accelerate progress for all.’

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