The Royals’ window does not close in 2024
The cries to sell now ring hollow.
The Royals got off to an incredibly hot start and everyone was sure they’d be buyers at the deadline. They have struggled a fair amount since the beginning of June and finally fallen out of playoff position - though not far - which has caused the naysayers to rise back up and demand the team sell. One common refrain is that this team isn’t built to contend long-term, so adding talent at the deadline would be stupid.
That simply doesn’t make sense. According to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource page, (an excellent look at the state of any team’s roster,) the Royals have only three guaranteed free agents next year. Will Smith, Garrett Hampson, and Jordan Lyles will all be free agents next season. Among the rest, three hold player options which allow them to opt out following this season. Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, and Chris Stratton. Adam Frazier holds a mutual option. In the worst-case scenario, the Royals will lose six players currently on their 40-man roster. But the worst-case scenario is exceedingly unlikely, and well, let’s talk about those seven players.
No one has reported seeing Jordan Lyles in months and you’d be forgiven if you forgot he was technically still under contract to the Royals. He won’t be missed. Will Smith, at his best, has been a mediocre bullpen arm taking up a roster spot that could go to Will Klein or Walter Pennington who both project to be at least mediocre. He won’t be missed. Garrett Hampson, despite the gnashing of teeth of many, has been a competent utility player but of the kind that can be easily replaced. He won’t be missed (and could easily re-sign if the Royals want him back.) Adam Frazier has single-handedly won two games for the Royals (with his home run robbery against the Tigers and ninth-inning home run against the Angels) but has otherwise been quite bad. He won’t be missed.
Chris Stratton has had one of the most bizarre seasons I’ve ever witnessed and anyone who says they know for sure that he’s good or bad or will or won’t pick up his option for next season is lying. Hunter Renfroe has turned things around since June and has since been a useful bat in right field, but whether he opts out depends largely on whether he keeps hitting well. Michael Wacha has been approximately as good as he was last season. My gut says he’s the most likely to opt out, but he couldn’t get a better deal last offseason than the one the Royals gave him and maybe, with the team playing well, he’d rather just take the sure thing in Kansas City with a team that is largely sticking together than gamble on the free agent market again ahead of his age-33 season.
The tl;dr is this: The only players the Royals are guaranteed to lose are the ones who they need to keep the least in order to compete next season. Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and more will all still be here. According to Spotrac, the Royals’ salary obligations currently stand at a mere $81.2 million - $45 million short of this year’s payroll, and therefore plenty of room to add free agents during the offseason to fill any holes they still have.
If you want to argue that several of the current Royals contributors are unlikely to be good next year - Perez, Wacha, Renfroe, and Seth Lugo aren’t getting any younger after all - I’d point to you the fact that I’ve been betting against Salvy’s aging curve for years and lost every time. Additionally, it’s not like they don’t have any viable internal replacements; Freddy Fermin would be a starting catcher for most teams right now, Gavin Cross and Cayden Wallace should be ready to fight for roster spots early in the year, Mason Barnett and Chandler Champlain are getting closer as well. Kyle Wright should be nearly ready to return from his injury at the start of next year and Kris Bubic is pitching out of the bullpen right now for lack of a rotation slot.
That’s not even to mention the fact that Ragans, Witt, and Maikel Garcia are all entering their primes, not exiting them. So they could even get better than they have been.
Owner John Sherman and General Manager JJ Picollo have been living in the shadows of their pennant- and World Series-winning priors. If they want to establish themselves as a good owner and GM in their own right, it would behoove them to make some smart deals to attempt to improve this year’s team. And that’s before we even get to the fact that fans and local residents are far more likely to vote yes on funding for a new stadium for a team that shows it’s willing to actually put in the effort to try to compete when they have opportunities to do so.
No, the Royals shouldn’t completely sacrifice their future to chase a playoff spot this season, that would be foolish for any team except one that is likely exiting its window and the Royals are, potentially, just entering theirs. However, no one knows how long this window will be open so selling now for a future that may not exist by the time any acquired prospects are ready, seems equally foolish. The needs the Royals have are real but they aren’t dire and they can be had without selling off the entire farm. And, fortunately, the Royals seem to agree.