The Buccaneers success hinges on Baker Mayfield being better than Tom Brady (again)

The 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked like they were destined for the Caleb Williams lottery. Instead, they won the NFC South.

The first year post-Tom Brady was kinder to Tampa than it was to the New England Patriots. The Bucs improved from that 2022 squad, defending their divisional crown while winning one more regular season game (nine compared to eight) and tacking on a Wild Card victory over the freefalling Philadelphia Eagles.

That was enough to inspire Tampa Bay to run it back. Baker Mayfield, signed for backup quarterback money in 2023 before emerging as a Pro Bowler and top-15 passer, re-signed for three years and $100 million. Mike Evans, still churning out 1,000-yard seasons a decade into his career, returned on a two-year, $41 million deal. Head coach Todd Bowles, thrown into the fire by Bruce Arians’ 2022 offseason retirement, stuck around as head coach.

The Buccaneers aren’t the same team they were in 2023. Several pieces are missing, including some significant turnover on the defensive side of the ball. But the team’s success last season rejected the idea of a rebuild and made the path of least resistance continuity rather than a youth movement.

That could be a problem with the much of the NFC South primed for improvement. But it’s a move that makes sense given 2023’s most surprising revelation.

Baker Mayfield was quietly a top 10-adjacent quarterback in 2023

Here’s a bad argument to have; does Mayfield’s 2023 dull the luster of Brady’s accomplishments with the Bucs? The former top overall pick was forced into a similar situation as the one that eventually ushered the future Hall of Famer to retirement. The interior of his line was a mess, the running game woefully inefficient and the time to throw in the pocket minimal.

Despite this, and despite being 2022’s worst starting quarterback, Mayfield thrived. He threw more touchdowns, had a better quarterback rating, won more games and was responsible for more expected points added (EPA) per play.

Brady, a 43-year-old man with very little mobility, was forced into quick releases and short passes en route to an underwhelming finale to a legendary career. Mayfield used his mobility to his advantage (his 29 scrambles were a career high, per Pro Football Reference), stood in the face of pressure longer and finished the season sandwiched between Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff when it came to EPA/play, good for 10th overall.

He did this with great wideouts, useful blocking along the edges and little else. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were their usual dynamic selves. Tristan Wirfs remained a one-man wrecking crew and Luke Goedeke proved capable of holding down the other tackle spot opposite him.

The middle of the line remained a mess; Tampa’s 2.1 yards before contact per rush was second-worst in the NFL. Its 3.4 yards per carry ranked dead last. Cade Otton put up decent numbers in his second season as a pro, but his yards per route run didn’t even crack the top 50 among tight ends.

First round pick Graham Barton will help. The Duke tackle is expected to kick inside where he can replace retired center Ryan Jensen, whose absence the last two seasons played a significant role in the team’s weakness in the middle. The guard combination of Ben Bredeson and Cody Mauch isn’t exactly inspiring, though new addition Sua Opeta can help. The running game could still be a disaster behind Rachaad White — statistically the league’s least efficient full-time back — Chase Edmonds and the rest of a tailback corps that leaves plenty to be desired.

Thus, the onus comes back to Mayfield, the guy who looked like this in 2022:

That’s a big risk! It’s also not an unreasonable one. The Detroit Lions revival has been built around a former first overall pick who spent time as a Los Angeles Ram. Detroit covered Jared Goff’s flaws with dynamic motion and a steady diet of play-action passing. The Bucs revived Mayfield despite not being able to make all that much of its fake runs in a season where its real runs threatened no one.

Instead, Mayfield’s rise came behind a modest diet of run-pass options — 59 snaps, per Pro Football Reference, the second-highest of his career — and the fact he had two Pro Bowl wideouts on which to lean. Mike Evans’ 111.6 passer rating when targeted was tops among the team’s full-time non-tailbacks and eighth-best among all players with at least 100 targets. Chris Godwin’s number was lower as a result of a shorter target distance and fewer touchdowns (two vs. 13) but he caught nearly 64 percent of his passes. Between the two, more than 45 percent of Mayfield’s throws in their direction ended in either first downs or touchdowns.

If Evans and Godwin remain this productive — a medium ask, considering Evans turns 31 in August and Godwin played a full season last year for the first time since 2018 — Mayfield can shine sorta-bright again. If not, the Bucs can distance themselves from him after 2025 with reasonable cap penalties involved. Whether or not Tampa can survive a mediocre Mayfield comes down to one thing.

The Buccaneers’ rebuilt defense has to level up on the fly

These are the key components who’ll be missing from the Buccaneers defense in 2024:

• Devin White
• Shaquil Barrett
• Carlton Davis
• Ryan Neal
• Dee Delaney

Some of those names look more concerning than they are. White, for example, was reduced to a supporting role in last year’s postseason. Barrett had just 7.5 sacks the last two years combined.

Still, that’s significant turnover that will need to be addressed. Tampa fielded a borderline top 10 defense last season, ranking 11th in EPA allowed, seventh in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed per play. The biggest loss is Davis, who was traded to the Detroit Lions, in part, to secure the cap space needed to retain Mayfield, Evans and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Davis’s departure is a bet. He’s been a solid starting cornerback throughout his six-year NFL career. But his passer rating allowed last season jumped by more than 13 points and his yards per target allowed rose to a career-worst 8.8. The Bucs opted to try and sell high, moving him for a third round pick used on wideout Jalen McMillan that allowed the team to target Georgia safety Tykee Smith a few picks earlier.

Smith is one of several young defenders on which Tampa Bay will rely to fill gaps in 2024. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien are each primed for potential starting roles in the secondary after useful 2023 campaigns in which they ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, in defensive snaps taken. YaYa Diaby takes over Barrett’s role as the team’s top pass rusher, ideally with help from recent first round picks Calijah Kancey and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Sir’Vocea Dennis may be called into action should Lavonte David, in his 13th season as a Buc, can’t go.

There’s potential for this unit to be great, particularly if McCollum and Izien can build off their 2023 progress and free Winfield up to be the all-encompassing play-ruiner he’s meant to be. There’s also a dire need for Diaby, Tryon-Shoyinka and Kancey to step up. Last year’s Tampa Bay team blitzed on more than 40 percent of its downs but generated pressure less than 20 percent of the time (furthering the “it was time for Shaq Barrett to go” narrative).

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Even just maintaining the status quo would be a win for a team eager to tread that path. The Falcons are the biggest obstacle in the Buccaneers’ quest for an NFC South three-peat, but their playoff hopes hinge on Kirk Cousins’ recovery from a torn Achilles at 36 years old — the same age Matt Ryan was in his final year with Atlanta. They could be stout competition, or they could be merely OK despite the overhaul.

Otherwise, the division is split between a New Orleans Saints team stuck in perpetual salary cap hell and a Carolina Panthers team that improved this offseason mostly because it was difficult to be worse. The NFC South is very much open to all comers, but the smart money suggests a two-team race.

Will holdovers and the contributions of young defenders be enough to keep the Buccaneers in front? Can Mayfield replicate a magical 2023 after testing the limits of how bad a starting quarterback can be? Tampa Bay didn’t make any earth-shaking moves this offseason, instead opting to rely on developmental growth and the ageless play of some key veterans. It’s not a bold strategy, but it’s one that could pay off once more.