US and Panama plan to block migration corridor, but experts ask how

“For every section that is closed, three additional silent ones can appear," migration experts say.

The question of how Mulino’s government plans to ‘close’ the Darién is contentious.

Originally published on Global Voices

On July 1, 2024, José Raúl Mulino was sworn into office as Panama’s next president. Following up on promises made during his campaign run, one of Mulino’s first official acts as president was to sign a deal with the US to stem migration through the Darién Gap — a stretch of dense and inhospitable jungle on the Panama–Colombia border that is one of Latin America’s largest migration corridors. Though long considered impassable due to its difficult topography and extreme environment, for hundreds of thousands of migrants each year, the Darién Gap represents a difficult path toward a better life.

The memorandum of understanding between Panama and the US on Mulino’s first day in office, signed by US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, pledges US support to Panamanian efforts to deport migrants entering Panama illegally. An initial USD 6 million was allocated toward the initiative.

White House National Security spokesperson Adrienne Watson says:

By returning such individuals to their country of origin, we will help deter irregular migration in the region and at our Southern border, and halt the enrichment of malign smuggling networks that prey on vulnerable migrants.

The Darién Gap has long been a subject of controversy and strained diplomatic relations in this Central American country, as most of the migrants passing through it are bound for the US, Panama’s most important international partner. Mulino, of the right-wing Realizando Metas (“Achieving Goals”) party, campaigned on his promise to “close” the Darién Gap, despite concerns surrounding his strategy and the consequences for the hundreds of thousands of migrants who annually pass through.

Over the 2010s and 2020s, the Darién Gap saw a rapid rise in the number of migrants passing through, peaking with more than 500,000 in 2023. This increase coincided with rising numbers of undocumented migrants crossing the southern border of the US. In 2023, hoping to stem the flow, the Biden administration — reviving a similar plan proposed by the Trump administration in 2018 — pledged up to USD 10 million in foreign aid to Panama with the purpose of deporting migrants who do not qualify for protections, preempting their arrival at the US border. This marked the first time US foreign aid has funded another country’s deportation efforts.

Most of the migrants, around 60 percent, are Venezuelan, a consequence of the ongoing Venezuelan refugee crisis, the largest refugee crisis on record in the Americas. As of September 2023, almost 8 million Venezuelans — 20 percent of Venezuela’s pre-crisis population — have fled their country owing to the rampant hyperinflation, starvation, and crime that have become endemic under the autocratic government of Nicolás Maduro. Most first settled in other Latin American countries, where they have faced legal challenges, economic hardships, and limited prospects for long-term integration. Other major source countries include Haiti, Ecuador, Colombia, and China.

For many with their sights set on the US, the Darién Gap offered a lifeline to new opportunities and a better life. For governments and law enforcement agencies in Central America, Mexico, and the US, however, Venezuelan migration is a problem to be controlled. For the Biden administration — and now Mulino's in Panama — deporting migrants is the go-to strategy. Complicating matters, however, is the fact that the Venezuelan government has halted flights of Venezuelan migrants deported from the US and Mexico following the reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas industry.

Mulino stated in his inauguration speech:

No permitiré que Panamá sea un camino abierto a miles de personas que ingresan ilegalmente a nuestro país aupados por toda una organización internacional relacionada con el narcotráfico y el tráfico de personas.

I won’t allow Panama to be an open path for thousands of people who enter our country illegally, supported by an international organization related to drug trafficking and human trafficking.

Others in Mulino’s cabinet have pledged their official support for his plan. In June, Frank Ábrego, the new Minister of Public Security under Mulino and the founder of Panama’s border patrol agency, SENAFRONT — which has received considerable US funding — visited Panama’s southern Darién Province to survey the Mayor Salvador Córdoba Air Base, one of the main military installations in the border region.

Hoy realizamos una visita técnica a la base aérea Mayor Salvador Córdoba en Nicanor, provincia de Darién, para una primera jornada de entrega de informes del Servicio Nacional Aeronaval. Sin duda alguna actualizar la flota aérea, marítima y mejorar la infraestructura de… pic.twitter.com/kYFe9nSB4b

— Frank Abrego (@frankabregom) June 19, 2024

Today we made a technical visit to the Major Salvador Cordoba air base in Nicanor, province of Darién, for a first day of delivery of reports from the National Aero-Naval Service. There is no doubt that updating the air and maritime fleet and improving the intervention infrastructure is a challenge that we will take on from July 1. #DignifyingTheUniformed

Joining Mulino’s government following a long military career, Ábrego is an alumnus of the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation — better known as the School of the Americas, a US Department of Defense school with a history of training repressive state actors from various Latin American countries. Ábrego, whom one newspaper dubbed the “tsar of Darién,” exemplifies the anti-immigration stance typical of the Panamanian right within the government and military establishment.

The question of how, in practical terms, Mulino’s government plans to “close” the Darién is a contentious one. However, the new government has already taken steps to block several identified routes through the jungle. In a recent communique, SENAFRONT detailed the use of perimeter barriers of barbed wire deployed to prevent access to certain routes and funnel migrants toward bottlenecks where security forces can apprehend them.

Some, critical of the potentially grave humanitarian consequences of Mulino’s plan, have proposed alternative approaches to managing the migrant crisis. One prominent critic is Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who tweeted on June 9:

Los alambres de púas en la selva somo traerán ahogados en el mar.

La migración se frena quitando bloqueos económicos y mejorando la economía del sur https://t.co/1EFya16cn0

— Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) July 9, 2024

Barbed wires in the jungle will bring people drowning in the sea.

Migration can be stopped by removing economic blockades and improving the economy of the South.

The Ombudsman’s Office of Colombia has also criticized Mulino’s measures. Ombudsman Julio Luis Balanta stated:

Hemos reiterado a las autoridades nacionales y locales, la necesidad de tomar medidas urgentes y activar mesas de gestión migratoria con un enfoque humanitario. La materialización de las restricciones en el Tapón del Darién podrían desencadenar un crisis de salud pública.

We have reiterated to the national and local authorities the need to take urgent measures and activate migration management tables with a humanitarian approach. The materialization of the restrictions in the Darién Gap could result in a public health crisis.

One reason the Colombian authorities are critical of Mulino’s plans is that if he succeeds in blocking access to Panama through the Darién Gap, a backlog of migrants could build up on the Colombian side of the border, presenting local security threats.

Despite Mulino’s recent steps toward cutting off access to several migration routes through the Darién, some experts believe that his plan to “close” the Darién entirely remains impossible. For instance, Diego Chavez-González of the Migration Policy Institute for Latin America and the Caribbean has noted that “for every section that is closed, three additional silent ones can appear.”

Given increasing rates of migration through the Darién Gap, paired with the political reticence of the Colombian authorities and the concerns of international human rights observers, it is anyone’s guess whether Mulino will succeed in his ambitious plan. What remains certain is that the migrants, with nowhere else to go, will keep coming.

Written by Rowan Glass