Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, Biden holds 3-point lead in Virginia: Polls

Former President Trump and President Biden are neck and neck in hypothetical match-ups in two key states, according to the latest polling from The New York Times and Siena College.

In the polling released Monday, Trump leads Biden by 3 points (48 percent support to 45 percent) among likely voters in Pennsylvania, while Biden leads Trump by 3 points (48 percent support to 45 percent) among likely voters in Virginia. The results fall within the margins of error for both polls.

The polls were conducted after Biden’s shaky debate performance last month — which prompted public debate over his standing atop the Democratic Party’s ticket — but before the attempted assassination of Trump this past Saturday. The shooting has shaken the country and could have an effect on poll results in unforeseen ways.

Biden’s showing in the July 2024 poll in Pennsylvania is virtually unchanged from the previous poll, conducted in late April to early May of this year. In that poll, Trump led Biden by 3 points among registered voters, 47 percent support to 44 percent.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a slim margin, and the state is considered a top battleground again this year, remaining essential for his reelection chances.

The pollsters noted that Biden’s slim lead in Virginia should prove more concerning to the president’s reelection team, since he won Virginia by 10 points in 2020.

The polls also gauged voter sentiment about Vice President Harris amid some calls in the party for her to replace Biden as the party’s nominee.

She fares slightly better than Biden in both states, but the differences remain within the margins of error. In Pennsylvania, Harris narrows Trump’s lead to just 1 point, earning 47 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent among likely voters. In Virginia, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 49 percent support to 44 percent.

The president and his team have reaffirmed his commitment to staying in the race, despite calls from several dozen Democrats for him to step aside. A number of Democrats have renewed their support for Biden and criticized fellow party members for attacking the candidate.

The Pennsylvania poll of 872 voters was conducted July 9-11 and has a margin of sampling error of 3.8 percentage points. The Virginia poll of 661 voters was conducted July 9-12 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.