What Trump picking Vance for VP means for the Senate

Donald Trump picking Sen. J.D. Vance for his running mate means there could be an upcoming vacancy in the Senate — but it wouldn't last long.

If Vance is elected as vice president, Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine will get to pick his replacement in Congress' upper chamber. DeWine could theoretically have that person slated to take over the seat immediately after Vance resigned it to take the vice presidential slot, then he or she would fill the seat until a special election in 2026. That person could then run for reelection or cede the race to another Republican.

DeWine, who has been critical of Trump in recent years, could pick someone more moderate than Vance to fill his seat. Shortly before the pick was announced, DeWine told CNN he thought a Vance pick would be a “great thing for Ohio.”

While the replacement would certainly be a Republican, the following election in 2026 would likely draw a strong Democratic recruiting effort. Though Ohio had trended strongly Republican in recent years — Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is now the only statewide elected Democrat — it's still considered a competitive state.

Vance is in his first term in the Senate and had no previous lawmaking experience, but he’s built a reputation on the Hill as a chatty and articulate colleague. He's also taken a few critical legislative swings, particularly regarding rail-safety reform following the East Palestine train derailment in Ohio last year. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has repeatedly cited rail safety reform as a priority for the chamber, though timing for any action on the legislation is unclear.

Despite that bipartisan effort, the Ohio Republican rarely voted with Democrats on legislation or nominations. So while he's likely to miss more votes this year while campaigning alongside Trump, it's unlikely to make much of a difference on must-pass legislation like government funding, which requires a 60-vote threshold.

When POLITICO asked congressional Republicans about potential vice presidential picks earlier this year, a number said they liked Vance personally. But some lawmakers expressed reservations about adding Vance to the ticket, noting ways in which he mirrors Trump rather than broadening the former president's appeal.

“I love J.D.,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who’d initially endorsed North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum for president, told POLITICO in May. “But I don't think he does add any value electorally to the ticket. … J.D. just cements the MAGA world, but they're already pretty well cemented in. I like him, but I just don't see that.”

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) also said in May that while Vance “is new into the system” and “he has been purporting and talking a lot of a populist philosophy," and is a "good communicator," the South Dakota senator preferred other vice presidential candidates like Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) or Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

Scott had effectively fallen out of contention before the convention, while Rubio was considered a finalist for the role.