Emmy nomination predictions: ‘The Bear,’ ‘Shogun’ predicted to lead

“The Bear” will overwhelmingly dominate the Emmy nominations when they’re announced on Wednesday morning, July 17. That’s according to the combined predictions of more than 3,300 Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. Scroll down for our complete predictions in 25 top categories listed by program. Our projected winners are highlighted in gold.

FX’s dramedy about the staff at a struggling Chicago restaurant is expected to pick up an astronomical 16 nominations across seven comedy categories. Of those we’re expecting it to win Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actor (Jeremy Allen White), Best Comedy Supporting Actor (Ebon Moss-Bachrach), Best Comedy Guest Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis) and Best Comedy Guest Actor (Jon Bernthal). Those 16 predicted noms exceed the 13 that the show received last year, and that doesn’t even include fields like writing, directing, casting, editing and much more.

Another FX program, the historical drama “Shogun,” is next in line with a predicted nine nominations, of which it’s the front-runner to claim Best Drama Series, Best Drama Actress (Anna Sawai), Best Drama Actor (Hiroyuki Sanada) and Best Drama Guest Actor (Nestor Carbonell). Even more than “The Bear,” the lavishly staged “Shogun” has the potential to clean up in Creative Arts races thanks to its high production values.

“The Crown” is predicted for eight bids, which would already improve on last year’s six total nominations before factoring in below-the-line races. “The Morning Show” is also looking to improve its fortunes with seven anticipated nominations. The last time the show was eligible, in 2022, it only scored three noms. The door is wide open for both of these shows to expand their Emmy footprints because most of last year’s drama nominees are out of contention in 2024, either because they’re on hiatus or because they went off the air entirely. That includes “Succession,” which crowded out other shows for the last two years with a record acting nominations hauls.

Emmy winners Tony Hale and Sheryl Lee Ralph will announce the nominees on Wednesday at 8:30am Pacific/11:30am Eastern. The announcement will stream on Emmys.com/nominations.

“THE BEAR” (16 Nominations)
X — Best Comedy Series
Best Comedy Actress — Ayo Edebiri
X — Best Comedy Actor — Jeremy Allen White
Best Comedy Supporting Actress — Liza Colon-Zayas
Best Comedy Supporting Actress — Abby Elliott
Best Comedy Supporting Actor — Lionel Boyce
Best Comedy Supporting Actor — Matty Matheson
X — Best Comedy Supporting Actor — Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Best Comedy Supporting Actor — Oliver Platt
Best Comedy Guest Actress — Olivia Colman
X — Best Comedy Guest Actress — Jamie Lee Curtis
Best Comedy Guest Actress — Sarah Paulson
X — Best Comedy Guest Actor — Jon Bernthal
Best Comedy Guest Actor — John Mulaney
Best Comedy Guest Actor — Bob Odenkirk
Best Comedy Guest Actor — Will Poulter

“SHOGUN” (9 Nominations)
X — Best Drama Series
X — Best Drama Actress — Anna Sawai
Best Drama Actor — Cosmo Jarvis
X — Best Drama Actor — Hiroyuki Sanada
Best Drama Supporting Actress — Moeka Hoshi
Best Drama Supporting Actor — Tadanobu Asano
Best Drama Supporting Actor — Takehiro Hira
Best Drama Guest Actress — Yuko Miyamoto
X — Best Drama Guest Actor — Nestor Carbonell

“THE CROWN” (8 Nominations)
Best Drama Series
Best Drama Actress — Imelda Staunton
Best Drama Actor — Dominic West
X — Best Drama Supporting Actress — Elizabeth Debicki
Best Drama Supporting Actress — Lesley Manville
Best Drama Supporting Actor — Khalid Abdalla
Best Drama Supporting Actor — Jonathan Pryce
X — Best Drama Guest Actress — Claire Foy

“THE MORNING SHOW” (7 Nominations)
Best Drama Series
Best Drama Actress — Jennifer Aniston
Best Drama Actress — Reese Witherspooon
Best Drama Supporting Actress — Greta Lee
X — Best Drama Supporting Actor — Billy Crudup
Best Drama Supporting Actor — Jon Hamm
Best Drama Guest Actress — Marcia Gay Harden

“MR. AND MRS. SMITH” (7 Nominations)
Best Drama Series
Best Drama Actress — Maya Erskine
Best Drama Actor — Donald Glover
Best Drama Guest Actress — Michael Coel
Best Drama Guest Actress — Sarah Paulson
Best Drama Guest Actor — Paul Dano
Best Drama Guest Actor — John Turturro

“FARGO” (6 Nomination)
Best Limited Series
Best Movie/Limited Actress — Juno Temple
X — Best Movie/Limited Actor — Jon Hamm
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Jennifer Jason Leigh
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — Joe Keery
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — Sam Spruell

“HACKS” (6 Nominations)
Best Comedy Series
X — Best Comedy Actress — Jean Smart
X — Best Comedy Supporting Actress — Hannah Einbinder
Best Comedy Guest Actress — Kaitlin Olson
Best Comedy Guest Actress — J. Smith-Cameron
Best Comedy Guest Actor — Christopher McDonald

“ONLY MURDERS IN THE BUILDING” (6 Nominations)
Best Comedy Series
Best Comedy Actress — Selena Gomez
Best Comedy Actor — Steve Martin
Best Comedy Actor — Martin Short
Best Comedy Supporting Actress — Meryl Streep
Best Comedy Supporting Actor — Paul Rudd

“ABBOTT ELEMENTARY” (5 Nominations)
Best Comedy Series
Best Comedy Actress — Quinta Brunson
Best Comedy Supporting Actress — Janelle James
Best Comedy Supporting Actress — Sheryl Lee Ralph
Best Comedy Supporting Actor — Tyler James Williams

“BABY REINDEER” (4 Nominations)
X — Best Limited Series
Best Movie/Limited Actor — Richard Gadd
X — Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Jessica Gunning
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Nava Mau

“FALLOUT” (4 Nominations)
Best Drama Series
Best Drama Actor — Walton Goggins
Best Drama Guest Actor — Michael Emerson
Best Drama Guest Actor — Walton Goggins

“THE GILDED AGE” (4 Nominations)
Best Drama Series
Best Drama Supporting Actress — Christine Baranski
Best Drama Supporting Actress — Cynthia Nixon
Best Drama Guest Actor — Nathan Lane

“LEESSONS IN CHEMISTRY” (4 Nominations)
Best Limited Series
Best Movie/Limited Actress — Brie Larson
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Aja Naomi King
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — Lewis Pullman

“TRUE DETECTIVE: NIGHT COUNTRY” (4 Nominations)
Best Limited Series
X — Best Movie/Limited Actress — Jodie Foster
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Kali Reis
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — John Hawkes

“FEUD: CAPOTE VS. THE SWANS” (3 Nominations)
Best Movie/Limited Actor — Tom Hollander
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Diane Lane
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — Treat Williams

“SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE” (3 Nominations)
Best Comedy Guest Actress — Maya Rudolph
Best Comedy Guest Actor — Ryan Gosling
Best Variety Scripted Series

“SLOW HORSES” (3 Nominations)
Best Drama Sries
Best Drama Actor — Gary Oldman
Best Drama Supporting Actress — Kristin Scott Thomas

“CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM” (2 Nominations)
Best Comedy Series
Best Comedy Actor — Larry David

“THE CURSE” (2 Nominations)
Best Drama Series
Best Drama Actress — Emma Stone

“FELLOW TRAVELERS” (2 Nominations)
Best Movie/Limited Actor — Matt Bomer
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — Jonathan Bailey

“PALM ROYALE” (2 Nominations)
Best Comedy Series
Best Comedy Actress — Kristen Wiig

“RIPLEY” (2 Nominations)
Best Limited Series
Best Movie/Limited Actor — Andrew Scott

“RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE” (2 Nominations)
X — Best Competition Program
X — Best Reality Host — RuPaul Charles

“THE SYMPATHIZER” (2 Nominations)
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress — Sandra Oh
X — Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor — Robert Downey Jr.

“TOP CHEF” (2 Nominations)
Best Competition Program
Best Reality Host — Kristen Kish

“THE TRAITORS” (2 Nominations)
Best Competition Program
Best Reality Host — RuPaul Charles

“THE TRAITORS” (2 Nominations)
Best Competition Program
Best Reality Host — Alan Cumming

“THE AMAZING RACE” (1 Nomination)
Best Competition Program

“THE BIG NAILED IT! BAKING CHALLENGE” (1 Nomination)
Best Reality Host — Nicole Byer

“BLUE EYE SAMURAI” (1 Nomination)
Best Animated Program

“BOB’S BURGERS” (1 Nomination)
Best Animated Program

“THE CAINE MUTINY COURT-MARTIAL” (1 Nomination)
Best TV Movie

“THE DAILY SHOW” (1 Nomination)
X — Best Variety Talk Series

“THE GENTLEMEN” (1 Nomination)
Best Comedy Actor — Theo James

“GRISELDA” (1 Nomination)
Best Movie/Limited Actress — Sofia Vergara

“JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE” (1 Nomination)
Best Variety Talk Series

“LAST WEEK TONIGHT WITH JOHN OLIVER” (1 Nomination)
X — Best Variety Scripted Series

“LATE NIGHT WITH SETH MEYERS” (1 Nomination)
Best Variety Talk Series

“LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT” (1 Nomination)
Best Variety Talk Series

“MR. MONK’S LAST CASE” (1 Nomination)
X — Best TV Movie

“QUEER EYE” (1 Nomination)
Best Reality Host — Fab Five

“QUIZ LADY” (1 Nomination)
Best TV Movie

“RED, WHITE AND ROYAL BLUE” (1 Nomination)
Best TV Movie

“THE REGIME” (1 Nomination)
Best Movie/Limited Actress — Kate Winslet

“RESERVATION DOGS” (1 Nomination)
Best Comedy Series

“RICK AND MORTY” (1 Nomination)
Best Animated Program

“SCOOP” (1 Nomination)
Best TV Movie

“THE SIMPSONS” (1 Nomination)
Best Animated Program

“SURVIVOR” (1 Nomination)
Best Competition Program

“WHAT WE DO IN THE SHADOWS” (1 Nomination)
Best Comedy Series

“X-MEN ’97” (1 Nomination)
X — Best Animated Program

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