2024 Drama Writing Emmy predictions: ‘The Curse’ and ‘Fallout’ hoping to break in

The 2024 Best Drama Writing Emmy category is the second time in four years that none of the nominees from the prior year are eligible, giving us a whole new slate of programs competing for six slots (out of 134 total submissions on the ballot). All of last year’s nominated shows — “Better Call Saul” (“Point and Shoot” by Gordon Smith and “Saul Gone” by Peter Gould), “Bad Sisters” (“The Prick” by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel and Brett Baer), “Andor” (“One Way Out” by Beau Willimon), “The Last of Us” (“Long, Long Time” by Craig Mazin), “The White Lotus” (“Arrivederci” by Mike White), and the winner “Succession” (“Connor’s Wedding” by Jesse Armstrong) — are not on this year’s Emmy ballot, as they either concluded or didn’t air any new episodes.

Despite the open category, the submissions reflected in most of our likely contenders played it strategically safe with one or two entries from most shows. The only exception is “Shōgun,” which went for half of its debut season, submitting seven of their writers for five episodes, which include the pilot, the fifth episode, and the final three installments of the season. Similar to the directing category, the multitude of choices “Shōgun” presents risks the threat of vote-splitting. However, the momentum is strong for the historical Japanese drama, and if voters are really passionate, we could see a number of episodes from the series in this category.

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“The Crown” is the only drama that was previously nominated for writing, winning for its fourth season in 2021, but was left off for its fifth last year. Showrunner Peter Morgan has been a perennial nominee, and has two final opportunities with the series finale (nominated for the Writers Guild of America Award) and the eighth episode, centering around Princess Margaret and her declining health (which he co-wrote with Meriel Sheibani-Clare). Another one with a double showing is “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” putting up the same episodes it submitted for directing (the pilot and finale), both written by co-creators Donald Glover and Francesca Sloane. There is also “The Morning Show,” which has never been nominated for writing, but could have enough support with the lower volume, presenting three showcases.

The rest of the shows all have only one episode option up for contention, so we will get to see what newly minted programs the writers’ branch supports. Three such debut series went for their pilots, a consstant nomination pattern in this category: “Fallout,” “3 Body Problem” and WGA nominee “The Curse.” There is additionally the Season 2 finale of “The Gilded Age,” penned by Emmy winner Julian Fellowes of “Downton Abbey,” and the third episode of “Slow Horses” in its third season, featuring a major twist. Any of these series could signify something telling for the other main races if they make the cut.

With the slate wiped completely clean, the possibilities for what new dramas can get nominated are endless, especially when the branch has a tendency to go their own way and sometimes champion an underdog and throw us a curveball. It will be exciting to see what will make a showing when the nominations are announced July 17.

Here are some of the top contenders to consider when making your 2024 Emmy predictions for the Best Drama Writing category:

“Shōgun” season 1
“Anjin” (Rachel Kondo & Justin Marks)
“Broken to the Fist” (Matt Lambert)
“The Abyss of Life” (Shannon Goss)
“Crimson Sky” (Rachel Kondo & Caillin Puente)
“A Dream of a Dream” (Maegan Houang & Emily Yoshida)

“The Crown” season 6
“Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Peter Morgan)
“Ritz” (Meriel Sheibani-Clare & Peter Morgan)

“Slow Horses” season 3
“Negotiating With Tigers” (Will Smith)

“Fallout” season 1
“The End” (Geneva Robertson-Dworet & Graham Wagner)

“The Curse” season 1
“Land of Enchantment” (Nathan Fielder & Benny Safdie)

“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” season 1
“First Date” (Francesca Sloane & Donald Glover)
“The Breakup” (Francesca Sloane & Donald Glover)

“The Gilded Age” season 2
“In Terms of Winning and Losing” (Julian Fellowes)

“The Morning Show” season 3
“The Overview Effect” (Charlotte Stoudt & Anya Leta)
“White Noise” (Joshua Allen)
“Strict Scrutiny” (Bill Kennedy)

“3 Body Problem” season 1
“The Countdown” (David Benioff, D.B. Weiss & Alexander Woo)

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17

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