Emmy nominations: Surprises on the horizon?
This Wednesday, over 3,300 Gold Derby users will finally come to realize the extent of their savviness in predicting the 2024 Primetime Emmy nominations. As of now, 78% of our generally predicted nominees in 25 categories have the unanimous support of our experts, editors, Top 24 users, and All-Star 24 users, but each of those subgroups retains a few unique ideas as to how the official lineups will turn out.
It’s safe to say that the likeliest surprise nominees are those who are backed by multiple Gold Derby predictor subsets despite not appearing on our main forecasted rosters. This includes editor, top 24, and all-star picks Paul W. Downs (comedy supporting actor, “Hacks”) and Fumi Nikaido (drama supporting actress, “Shōgun”) as well as two-list hopefuls Maya Rudolph (comedy actress, “Loot”), Christopher Lloyd (comedy guest actor, “Hacks”), and Finn Bennett (movie/limited supporting actor, “True Detective: Night Country”).
Most of our generally predicted winners are fully agreed upon, but several deviations are still holding strong. Within the last week, our editors broke from the crowd to champion movie/limited actress hopeful Brie Larson (“Lessons in Chemistry”) over Jodie Foster (“True Detective”). Conversely, “The Daily Show” and “X-Men ‘97” just became the overall frontrunners for Best Talk Series and Best Animated Program, leaving the subgroups divided between them and previous leaders “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and “The Simpsons.”
At this point, our editors and top 24 users are still convinced that Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) will defeat general movie/limited actor frontrunner Jon Hamm (“Fargo”), while the experts continue to stand alone in touting drama leads Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) and Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) over “Shōgun” costars Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada. Also worth noting is that both the top 24 and all-star groups have now joined the experts in anticipating a talk series bid for “John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in L.A.” at the expense of “Late Night with Seth Meyers.”
The only new generally predicted acting nominee who emerged this week is Maya Erskine (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”), who bumped Carrie Coon (“The Gilded Age”) out of the drama actress top six after being similarly displaced by Sawai in May. “The Amazing Race” also just replaced “The Voice” in our competition program lineup while “Survivor” improved its standing in the same category as well as the corresponding hosting one, where Jeff Probst now holds the first alternate position.
Other contenders who are apparently safer than they were a week ago include performers Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”), Liza Colón-Zayas (“The Bear”), and Nava Mau (“Baby Reindeer”) and programs “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” and “Bob’s Burgers.”
All of the information about Wednesday’s Emmy nominations announcement can be found here.
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominations through July 17
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