Open Championship Power Rankings: Top 10 Contenders For Royal Troon

The 2024 major golf championship season comes to a close this weekend in Scotland for the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon.

The usual tests are on tap for the world’s best players with a tricky links course that is hosting its 10th Open Championship and first since 2016 when Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson in a Sunday showdown. The wind has been whipping for practice rounds this week, and rain is in the forecast during the tournament with the course nestled into the beaches of the Firth of Clyde.

Who has what it takes to solve one of golf’s trickiest riddles? Here are our power rankings for this week’s Open Championship at Royal Troon.

(Betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.)

10. Brian Harman (+7500) — Admittedly, the defending champion’s inclusion here is largely ceremonial, but he is playing good golf, despite a bit of a putting slump that dates back to the Memorial. Links golf suits him well, though, with three top-20 finishes at the Open, including a sixth and obviously the win last year (that we didn’t see coming).

9. Tyrrell Hatton (+2800) — A couple of bad final rounds did cost him real solid major finishes, but he bounced back with a win and a third-place finish coming out of the U.S. Open. He’s getting close at the British, too, with three top-20 finishes in his last four starts.

8. Tony Finau (+5000) — Is it finally time for Big Tone? He comes in on a heater, with three straight top-eight finishes, including a T3 at the U.S. Open. He has four top-20s at the Open, too. But he’s the exact sort of player who seems to fit here, with obviously incredible off-the-tee play but also really, really solid around-the-green skills. He’s also figured something out with the putter, which has long been an issue.

7. Collin Morikawa (+1400) — He’s probably going to be a popular play with four top-four finishes dating back to the PGA Championship, and he does have a Claret Jug to his name. That win in 2021, though, came in uncharacteristically benign Open conditions, and he hasn’t finished in the top 75 in his last two British starts. He typically struggles when the weather kicks up, and there’s rain in the forecast this week.

6. Jon Rahm (+2500): So, does he suck now? Probably not … right? Rahm has been a non-factor in the majors this season, but he finished tied for second last year at Royal Liverpool, and he’s been very consistent is his maiden LIV season. He theoretically has all the tools to win this tournament, and maybe we’ll look back at think 25-1 was the bargain of the year.

5. Xander Schauffele (+1100) — At this point, we might as well just copy and paste for Schauffele at every major. He’s just really good at everything and always seems to contend.

4. Rory McIlroy (+800) — Rory is a tough nut to crack. Counting his win in 2014, he has six top-six finishes in eight Open Championship starts. He has finished no worse than 12th in five of his last six majors. Yet, once again, it’s tough to shake what happened to him at Pinehurst, the latest in a growing number of close calls. On one hand, you could say he’s due. On the other, you could say he doesn’t quite have the mettle to break this decade-long major streak. It’s hard to bet him with confidence this week, but it would also be unsurprising to see him finally break through because, you know, he’s good.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (+1800) — DeChambeau is another tough guy to figure out. In the past, you might say his game doesn’t translate very well to links play where he’s gotta keep the ball low. But he’s also on an undeniable run with top-10 finishes at each of the three majors this season. You could argue he could have at least two major titles coming into this week, perhaps a sign that his game has matured to the point where he can win on any course in the world.

2. Ludvig Aberg (+1600) — He’s only 24 years old, and he’s already a monster. He’ll probably contend, but here are his scoring ranks by round on the Tour this season: seventh, 24th, 21st … and 91st. Maybe that’s just a small sample size, but it’s hard to totally buy in. Aberg feels like a great DFS play even if he’s not a great bet.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+450) — Rick Run Good, one of the go-to data and modeling tools in the pro golf game, has a course fit tool with an adjusted fit accounting for how the course plays relative to skill sets. According to the modeling, Royal Troon heavily favors players who excel off the tee and around the green. Putting doesn’t appear to be a major factor. So, it should come as no surprise that Scheffler’s name sits at the very top of the field in adjusted fit. After his wild PGA Championship and a relatively non-competitive U.S. Open, Scheffler might be flying a little under the radar this week — as much as a +450 favorite can, at least.