2024 Drama Directing Emmy predictions: How many of the 6 slots will ‘Shōgun’ take?

This year’s Best Drama Directing category is a true anomaly as for the first time, none of the nominees from the prior year are eligible to return, giving us a brand new slate of contenders. In all, there are 148 submissions on the Emmy ballot, which will result in six slots. As a refresher, last year’s nominees were “Succession” (“America Decides” by Andrij Parekh, “Living+” by Lorene Scafaria, and winner “Connor’s Wedding” by Mark Mylod), “Bad Sisters” (“The Prick” by Dearbhla Walsh”), “Andor” (“Rix Road” by Benjamin Caron), “The Last of Us” (“Long, Long Time” by Peter Hoar) and “The White Lotus” (“Arrivederci” by Mike White). So with the slate wiped completely clean, what shows will be nominated in this category?

One certainty is the FX historical hit “Shōgun,” which took advantage of the barren field and submitted the exact number of episodes allowed for this category, with all six directors entered for their selective work. This includes the pilot, the third installment, and four showcases from the latter half of their 10-episode season, with the exception of the finale. While such a strategy is rare for a program due to the possibility of vote-splitting, with such an open uncertain category, momentum is paramount for a series to make it in, which is what “Shōgun” has arguably more than any of the other contenders. Furthermore, we’ve seen in the past how voters will easily check off a show if they are really passionate about it, which could also work toward its advantage.

SEE Watch our lively chats with hundreds of 2024 Emmy contenders

In terms of previous nominees in prior years, “The Crown” and “The Morning Show” are both making another run in directing after being left off for their last seasons, both going with their finales and third episodes, arguably their breakout episodes. The British historical series’ submissions highlight Princess Diana’s last moments before her demise with Christian Schwochow behind the camera, and the series finale directed by previous winner Stephen Daldry. And the satirical news drama’s two features are helmed by Emmy winners and veterans Thomas Carter and Mimi Leder, the latter of whom got in for the first season.

As for the rest of the likely contenders, you may as well throw a dart at the wall as they are all untested. While most of these are eligible for the first time, we also have “Slow Horses” on its third season and “The Gilded Age” on its second, that are competing and could possibly be nominated, with the spy thriller opting for its action-packed premiere and the New York high society drama going for triple submissions with its fourth, sixth, and final episode of the season.

More debut programs include “Mr. and Mrs. Smith,” with entries from previous nominees Hiro Murai for the premiere and winner Donald Glover for the finale; “Fallout” with its pilot and fifth installment, the former by Jonathan Nolan; “The Curse” with its finale by Nathan Fielder – a technically impressive achievement with an inexplicable ending; and “3 Body Problem” (with the creators “Game of Thrones” behind it) having its pilot, fifth and penultimate showcases. This will be an exciting, unknown race as nominations will be announced July 17.

Here are some of the top contenders to consider when making your 2024 Emmy predictions for the Best Drama Directing category:

“Shōgun” season 1
“Anjin” (Jonathan Van Tulleken)
“Tomorrow is Tomorrow” (Charlotte Brändström)
“Ladies of the Willow World” (Hiromi Kamata)
“A Stick of Time” (Takeshi Fukunaga)
“The Abyss of Life” (Emmanuel Osei-Kuffour, Jr.)
“Crimson Sky” (Frederick E.O. Toye)

“The Crown” season 6
“Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Stephen Daldry)
“Dis-Moi Oui” (Christian Schwochow)

“Slow Horses” season 3
“Strange Games” (Saul Metzstein)

“Mr. & Mrs. Smith” season 1
“First Date” (Hiro Murai)
“The Breakup” (Donald Glover)

“Fallout” season 1
“The End” (Jonathan Nolan)
“The Past” (Claire Kilner)

“The Curse” season 1
“Green Queen” (Nathan Fielder)

“The Gilded Age” season 2
“In Terms of Winning and Losing” (Michael Engler)
“His Grace the Duke” (Deborah Kampmeier)
“Warning Shots” (Crystle Roberson Dorsey)

“The Morning Show” season 3
“The Overview Effect” (Mimi Leder)
“White Noise” (Thomas Carter)

“3 Body Problem” season 1
“The Countdown” (Derek Tsang)
“Only Advance” (Jeremy Podeswa)
“Judgment Day” (Minkie Spiro)

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17

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